ASEAN Security At Risk In Another War In Mindanao

A brewing revolt in the South

While we are so engrossed with the food crisis, a revolution is a-brewing in Mindanao.

Yesterday, a band of Islamic militants staged a rally in Sulu, one of the Southernmost islands of the Philippines (see story below). The rallyists called for independence from Manila, the seat of power. Police were unable to resist the militants, who carry long knives tucked in their waists.

A mockery of Arroyo

Obviously, this is a mockery of the administration of Mrs. Arroyo. One, it was a defiant act of rebellion. That action was a direct contravention of existing Philippine laws. The rallyists should have been arrested for inciting to rebellion and/or secession since they are calling for independence of Sulu. Police were helpless in arresting the militants, calling the incident just a way to let off steam.

Was that just a way to let off steam? No.

That incident was plain and simple rebellion. If it happened here in Manila, the rallyists could have been arrested, even mauled by police. But no. That one occurred in Mindanao, and our cops are afraid shitless.

Bigger than a rally

Second, that act shows that Islamist are preparing for something bigger than a call for independence. It’s just a warning to Manila that Tausugs are again ready to go to war against them. Is Manila ready for war?

Obviously, Manila is ill prepared for another war in the South. That might cause Mrs. Arroyo’s quick downfall. Imagine a scenario where hundreds if not thousands of troops being killed in Sulu. Imagine another conflagration similar to the one which happened in the 1970′s where Marcos sent his troops to suicide missions in Mindanao.

Government peace panel adviser Jesus Dureza said it might take a while to implement the remaining unmet provisions of the MNLF peace pact. What Dureza meant is this–Manila is not that serious in really institutionalizing peace in Mindanao.

Talks are rife that former MNLF chairman Nur Misuari will join the MNLF panel in OIC talks in Jeddah. Will it appease the Tausugs? No. Remember that only a few weeks ago, Nur has been replaced by a government factotum in the person of Ampatuan. Ampatuan has zero credibility among his people. The entire MNLF Central Committee does not have the personality to influence the remaining MNLF fighters toe the government line.

What about the MILF? Reports say, the biggest Bangsamoro group is split into different factions, due to the inability of MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad to maintain organizational cohesion. Many young MILF fighters vowed not to follow Murad should he proceed with peace talks with Manila. Reports say as many as 3,000 young fighters will continue waging war with Manila even if both sides sign a peace pact.

Revolt could break Gloria’s backbone

A revolution in Mindanao could take its toll on this administration, both politically and economically. It could break the backbone of Mrs. Arroyo who cling to power in the barest of threads. Remember that her troops have suffered innumerable defeats in the battlefield against Muslim fighters in the South. The once-feared Marines have been decimated in that area. If war breaks out, how will government explain the expected deaths and casualties of government troops there? How will it cope with the exodus of thousands of families? Is government logistically prepared to face this eventuality?

Effects in the regional anti-terror campaign

How will events happening in Mindanao impact on the regional anti-terror campaign? Reports on the ground show that more and more Bangsamoros are being influenced by radical Islamist thinking. A report by Maria Resa of ABS-CBN revealed that a new group has been formed which diametrically pursues the Jemaah Islamiya philosophy, that is, the creation of a Pan Islamic Sultanate.

This new group, allegedly being funded by the global Islamist organisation Al-Qaeda, could be funding the escalation of hostilities in the South. Remember that anti-terror groups have been unable to break the financial backbone of JI and it continues to spread its tentacles in the region. Left unattended, this new group could pose a serious security threat in the region, more dangerous and lethal than its predecessors.

US intervention in Bangsamoro affairs

A few months back, US Ambassador Kristie Kenney visited the main MILF camp in Mindanao. This is the first time that a representative of the US government came to visit the MILF. Analysts say this could lead the way for the de-listing of the MILF as a terrorist organisation. Some analysts however say that it was a blatant “in-your-face” act by the US against Gloria, which, fortunately, did not result to anything serious other than a note verbale.

What that visit meant was very simple–it shows that the US is very serious in addressing the root causes of rebellion in Mindanao. It wants to participate as a third party mediator. Malaysia has been a long-time participant in the talks. Yet, nothing substantial has resulted so far with Malaysia at the helm of the talks.

The US has a substantial strategic defense interest in Mindanao. One, Mindanao has been known as a safe haven for terrorists. Two, most of the suicide bombers who concocted the 9/11 attacks and the World Trade Center bombings came from Mindanao prior to planing to the mainland. And three, in the interest of regional security, Mindanao is placed very high in the agenda of the US State department since most areas being controlled by the MILF provide training to would-be JI fighters in the region. The Philippines ranks as the training and r&r (rest and recreation) area of the JI, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia as recruitment centers and Singapore as the financial hub.

A war in the South, especially in Sulu, would destroy all institutional efforts being implemented there by regional de-escalation experts. It could likewise, provide JI an opportunity to train their fighters in actual combat.

Net–a war in Mindanao could spark a regional war between the JI and anti-terror troops. It could endanger regional security. Is the region prepared to sacrifice its security because of Arroyo’s inability to talk peace with the Bangsamoro?

Monday, April 21, 2008

Muslims march for freedom in Sulu

The Sultanate of Sulu was a Muslim state that ruled over much of the islands off the Sulu Sea

By Al Jacinto, Correspondent

JOLO, Sulu: Hundreds of Muslims turned up Sunday and demanded independence for the province of Sulu, once the seat of power of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo.

With clenched fists and chanting “Allahu Akbar” (God is great), the marchers clad in their traditional garb demanded independence of Sulu, an archipelago in the remote part of the Philippines.

“We want independence. We want our ancestral land back from the infidels,” Datu Ibrahim said. Others assailed the military for alleged violations of human rights of Muslims in Sulu after seven people and an off-duty soldier were killed by security forces in a raid on an Abu Sayyaf hideout in Maibung town in February.

The marchers went around the town of Jolo, many waving red flags emblazoned with kris and other traditional weapons, urging citizens to join them. Policemen guarding the town kept a close watch, but did not stop the marchers, some of them carrying long knives tucked on their waist, a long tradition still practiced in many parts of the island.

“People here are just expressing their sentiments. It is their freedom to express what they believe is rightfully theirs. As long as they don’t break any law, it is fine and police are watching them,” one police sergeant said.

The Sultanate of Sulu was a Muslim state that ruled over much of the islands off the Sulu Sea. It stretches from a part of the island of Mindanao in the east, to North Borneo, now known as Sabah, in the west and south, and to Palawan, in the north.

The Sultanate of Sulu was founded in 1457 and is believed to have existed as a sovereign nation for at least 442 years. The Sultanate of Sulu obtained Sabah from Brunei as a gift for helping put down a rebellion on the Borneo Island.

Mindanao, Palawan, and the islands of the Sulu Sea were colonized by Spain, which ruled the country. Christian settlers later occupied Muslim ancestral lands.

The British leased Sabah and transferred control over the territory to Malaysia after the end of Second World War. Even after Borneo became part of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur still paid an annual rent of 5,000 ringgit to the heirs of the Sultan of Sulu Ismail Kiram. At least a dozen people are claiming to be the real sultan of Sulu and North Borneo.

The MILF, the country’s largest Muslim rebel group, which is negotiating peace with Manila, is also fighting for independence in Mindanao, a region rich in natural resources, but is deep in poverty and torn by strife and terrorism.

However, many politicians whose family owns vast tracks of lands and business interests in Mindanao are opposing the MILF demand for a separate state, saying, it would displace Christians in areas covered by the Muslim ancestral domain.

Peace talks were stalled last year after government and rebel negotiators failed to agree on the scope of the ancestral domain, which is the most important issue before the rebel group can reach a political settlement.

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