The next president will be the one who either wins with a wide margin in a clean and honest elections or the one who will take the cudgels of leadership of a mass movement protesting against a fraudulent one.
Net—the one chosen by civil society and of the country’s elite will be Arroyo’s successor. Money will not be a decisive factor in winning–it will probably be useful only in winning battles. The war against the oppressive administration of Arroyo will be won thru a public uprising immediately after the voting.
Why do I say this? All indications point to violent elections. Let me explain.
First, even if the Comelec successfully installs 82,000 counting machines in different parts of the country, the in-house cheating apparatus of the electoral body will still devise ways on how to manipulate the results of the elections. There are only two ways of cheating in this automated elections–replace the source codes days prior to the elections or physical hacking, which is sabotage in another form.
Comelec just hired an IT firm to secure the integrity of the source codes. The question is–when will Smartmatic personnel install the source codes? Days or weeks before the elections. Anything can happen from the day they installed the codes to D-day, the most plausible thing is replacement of the source codes. Comelec will not inspect these source codes prior to the opening of the precincts, which will happen at 7am. And surely, these fraudsters already have the technical specs of these source codes even now. They can replicate these source codes and replace them with “robotic” ones, with pre-installed and coded languages favourable to clients of these fraudsters.
That is easy to do since this only takes collusion between the Comelec mafia and candidates. Now, if this is not possible, then fraudsters take another route–force manual counting in selected areas of the country. Areas which are vote-rich and considered traditional hot-spots will definitely be considered for sabotage.
A fraudulent and violent election will compromise the integrity of the entire democratic exercise and justify extra-constitutional means to effect change.
Now, what if these things do not occur and we have a clean election. What now? Will this assure a smooth transition? Not yet. It depends.
For example, if anyone among the oppositionist candidates wins with the exception of Estrada, surely, that will entirely result to a smooth transition of power. If Noynoy Aquino wins even in the closest and slimmest margins, that will surely be a welcome development. Expect other political parties to respect that result.
If Villar wins in the slimmest of margins, it will take a while before everything calms down. There will definitely be some form of compromise between the Liberal and the Nacionalista before political forces respect that verdict.
It would definitely be far different and entirely difficult to accept if Gilbert Gibo Teodoro wins–even if the victory results from a genuine clean electoral exercise. Why?
No one will believe that a cellar dweller like Gibo will be able to surpass and even win against either a Noynoy or a Villar. Everyone expects Gibo to lose because of his close affinity with incumbent president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Even if, say, Gibo bridges the gap with the highest ranked contender, there will still be doubts and possible public outrage if Gibo suddenly wins the presidency. For one, that win will not be a convincing one. Fact is, people will really suspect that the administration orchestrated his win thru fraudulent means, EVEN IF EVIDENCE points to the contrary.
Same goes to Richard Gordon. Gordon is a sure loser. If, in some squirk of fate, Gordon manages to sneak a surprise, people from Noynoy Aquino and even Villar’s camps will definitely suspect fraud and that will eventually spark a massive revolt.
For sure, no one will get a majority of the electorate votes. In a seven-cornered fight, the statistical probability of a 20-20-20-20 remains a sign that, a hotly contested scenario is sure to happen. If a minority candidate wins, even if the elections were of the most credible one, that will not ensure that the victory will be widely accepted. There will always be accusations of fraud thrown by losing parties.
Expect a Gibo Teodoro to spark massive and widespread people’s revolt due to graft and fraud charges. This also follows in an Erap comeback win. It will take a while before supporters of, say Noynoy or Villar, accepts this. Fact is, even supporters of former president FVR will move just to frustrate an Estrada restoration.
Clearly, it is a toss up between Aquino and Villar, and many says, it will either be a Villar-Roxas administration or a Aquino-Legarda tandem.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Whoever wins the Presidential election will have a lot of headaches.
From widespread poverty to Mindanao problem to government corruption.
It will take a Superhuman President to solve these problems.
If you look at the election of the late Pres. Cory Aquino. People thought it will bring changes to the country . The evil Dictator is gone. Here comes the New Hope. What did we find? Nothing, except the old politicians were back. Same Dogs. Only different collars. Dont expect too much, whoever is elected. Because for sure. You will be disappointed.
Ayyy, naku, Mr. Hyden Toro, why the gloom prediction:
Nuon iyon, mas magagaling na ngayon ang taong Pilipino. At si NoyNoy, ibang Aquino iyan, hindi iyan katulad ng nanay niya. Tingnan mo na lang si NoyNoy — walang anak, walang asawa — hindi iyan puwedeng utu-utuin madali.
Can you give me a significant improvement of the Philippines
done by him? While he was in office?
To tell me a person is just good and will solve the problems
of the country. Is bordering to a ridiculous.
What are his positions on:
1. Squatters in Metro Manila? What are his programs to solve
this problems?
2. How about the OFWs? How will he create jobs?
3. The Mindanao Problem. What are his solutions?to bring peace
in the area?
We need a detailed solutions from him for the above problems.
More I will enumerate, if I have a good answers.
Otherwise, you are just howling at the moon.
hyden,
detailed positions? How about providing us with detailed positions of other candidates on the issues you raised so we can compare.
We judge candidates not only by what they say or by their record but also on their character. Is the candidate honest beyond reproach, is he a leader who values democracy, is he going to listen to what the people have to say or does he think he is more intelligent and more capable than they are?
Character before anything else.
In effect, Pat seems to argue that, whoever wins, or however clean elections may have been held, there will always be an accusation of fraud.
So where does this bring us?
To even think that Noynoy will win is almost like saying, he actually runs unopposed.
The same question in a Noynoy presidency will have to be asked: where will it bring us?
That is even harder to imagine, come to think of it.
Primer,
Now that your manok is out of the race are you going to vote for his running mate?
Patricio: That is not true, your statement that “…even if the elections were of the most credible one, that will not ensure that the victory will be widely accepted.” The NoyNoy supporters will support the voice of the people and will support the elected president in an honest elections which of course will result in NoyNoy becoming the elected president.
Great piece, Patricio. I too am rather worried about the Smartmatic stuff. And thoroughly agree about the possibility of Villar/Roxas, Noynoy/Legarda as well… Many thanks!
One problem with the Smartmatic machines used in Venezuela is that they were equipped to both send and receive.
Has the Comelec said anything about their Smartmatic machines being on a send only mode?