Ecological historians have often tried to link major environmental phenomena and social unrest leading to revolution. They come up with an environmentally deterministic theory that environment changes are major factors in fueling social unrest leading to revolution.
For instance, the French Revolution is believed to have been partially caused by a summer drought in 1783 followed by an extreme winter in 1784 which are hallmarks of a severe El Nino (ENSO). These two events led to failed wheat harvests and then to rising bread prices, which were the tipping point for the revolution. Ineptitude, corruption and conspicuous consumption in the ruling classes in the light of poor food security have been identified as the key factors in the revolution. Of course we cannot dismiss the importance of Enlightenment ideas and the perceived disconnect of the Roman Catholic Church with the concerns of the poor.
The Russian Revolution had also environmental roots. A spate of severe winters in the early 20th century resulted in poor harvests. The winter was severe in 1914 and with Russia involved in a costly war (as well as the ineptitude of the Tsar and the issue about Rasputin), the end of the Romanovs was inevitable
The 1896 Philippine Revolution had also environmental roots. A spate of El Nino related droughts in the 1880s as well as increasing taxation severely affected the poor’s access to food contributing to the unrest prior to 1896. This has been documented in the studies Luis Camara Dery which have been published and available at reputable bookshops in the Philippines. Even the ilang-ilang flowers were taxed when food was scarce.
Mrs Carmen Guerrero-Nakpil puts its well in her historical essays “For want of flowers, an Empire was lost”
My environmental science students are thinking that with El Nino, poor food security, an extremely corrupt ruling elite and “acts of God” like that earthquake in Tuguegarao :-), we have all the ingredients for revolution. The tipping point is so near.
While political pundits and op-ed columnists (who I believe need more environmental and historical sensitivity) have analyzed EDSA 1, EDSA2 and EDSA 3 , they have missed out that food security was never a major issue in these political upheavals. Common to all revolutionary situations is food insecurity which under yellow tinted glasses may be missed out. Sure corruption and poverty were but those who lived through 1985-1986 would remember that the face of hunger was in that Negros waif named Joel Abong (if I remember correctly). Negros is far from EDSA and the middle classes while they showed empathy were also distant from the issue. But in 2010 the face of hunger can be seen in so many of the urban poor just in front of Manila’s trendy malls where the middle class cools off. There are so many Joel Abongs on the streets. The smaller middle classes can no longer be distant anymore.
Are we in the El Nino that will tip it over?
Popularity: 1% [?]
Interesting perspective.
Of course, the environmental disasters of themselves do not provoke revolution, but a lousy governmental response to them can certainly upset people. And when the people have no choice for improvement other than revolution, well . . .
I would say to your students, get proactive. The Philippines is a bastion of mediocrity, laying the fertilizer for revolution all over the place, because there is no drive for excellence. There is a drive for favors and friendship, as reflected in people hiring those they know, rather than those who excel. This shuts off career paths for your students, and allows “non-results” to be the output of so many activities. And, in turn, it leads to corruption.
So rather than quaking in their boots or railing to surge the gates, how about encouraging them to do something lawful, something proactive, something tangible: the passing of a Fair Employment Law that bans hiring and promoting of people for any reason but capability.
Joe
Put another way,
Basketball teams that compete well do not appoint cousins as point guard or Sis as power forward.
Joe
If the greed of the rich and the greed of the oligarch and the greed of high government officials are tsunamis hitting the populace then I agree with blackshama that environmental phenomena could cause social unrest that will lead to revolution.
If people are hungry. And the leaders cannot remedy their hungers. For
sure, there will be trouble and restlessness. And even upheavals. We
cannot ignore this behavior of human population from history.
However, there are trends. Like changes in thoughts that contribute
to these factors. Like new ideas: communism, socialism, Islamic
fundamentalism, pseudo Democratic upheavals like the EDSAs, machinations of foreign powers like the U.S./C.I.A., etc… Gen. Noriega of Panama was overthrown. Because Panama refuses to extend the lease of the Panama Canal. After its expiration agreement with the U.S. The Energy problem of the world also causes foreign powers to influence the overthrow of legitimate governments to guarantee the continous flow of energy sources. Land and religion are also one of the causes. One country influences people in other country to overthrow their government
because of religion and land. So, a lot of factors causes upheavals of
governments. Not just food.
exactly not a Noynoy presidency…
Good blog blackshama…
Same old obsession, I see. Clearly, the piece was making a larger (non-partisan) point. In fact, we’re all implicated, including u, me and your beloved candidate. Amazing how your readings tend to be so selective, leytenian. Perhaps u should shift to marketing. :D
LOL, ignore me Lila… :) yes I am good in marketing too. If you think of it, i am only participating at FV. You won’t find me in other pinoy sites so I am not a direct threat to Noynoy’s vague ideas of marketing and brand recognition given the fact that the product itself has no track record of quality service while at the senate.
I think you can be a good senator independently. I will market for you. I’ll give my family in Leyte free of bribes. :) and how do you feel that your uncle FVR may support my pogi GIBO? lol
glad your back…
Well, your Gibo is definitely pogi, no doubt about it, dear. Don’t underestimate FVR, tho. People think they know where he stands. I suspect his position is far more complex…
Eeek. Not interested in being a senator or going into politics. But do wanna help — maybe in education or human rights?
R u around? We should have coffee sometime.
am in florida but missing Philippines terribly. I was just there in December and January. Sure coffee in New York sometime. you can be a good teacher too. you have the patience and I’m afraid I don’t.. lol
I give Noynoy the benefit of the doubt. I believe he has tried to look into the eyes of a starving homeless child near the BIR building in Quezon City.
Food shortages and hunger are the most dangerous causes of government
upheavals. Hunger knows no law. Look at what happened in New Orleans,
U.S.A. After typhoon Katrina. And recently in Chile, after the earthquake.
However there are other causes. Like foreign powers intervention.
The threat of supply of energy sources. Foreign interests will surely
overthrow the country. If they threaten the energy supply of the
foreign powers. The loss of strategic ocean way like the Panama Canal
in Panama during the reign of Gen. Noriega. New ideologies. Like:
communism, socialism, pseudo Democracy, religious fundamentalism will
also cause unheavals of government. Iran was the example of religious
Theocracy being installed with the help of foreign powers. The fight
for land and water sources is also one of the causes upheaval of governments.
Food is just one of the causes of upheavals. However, it is the most
dangerous of the causes.
I was sitting in the front yard yesterday afternoon, enjoying the cool breeze after a sweltering hot day, sipping a San Mig to help with the cooling. I pondered this matter of revolution raised by Blackshama. Three thoughts crept into my brain.
One, the hope of any nation is its youth. They inherit the future and they are not bound by convention. They can think progressively and they can take risks.
Two, Filipino youth appear passive. I’m thinking about college people. First of all, they are still kids when they graduate from high school so they really can’t be expected to think and act with authority. Second, they are taught obedience throughout their schooling, not independence of thought or ambition or being agents of change.
Three, college students should be asking why their nation bars their aspirations for meaningful careers. The nation does this by allowing people in power to appoint friends, family, and those owed favors to important jobs. Excellence withers. Mediocrity thrives. Youth must work a lifetime beneath their potential or go abroad to find opportunity.
Never has a nation offered so little to its youth, and it appears youth are not willing to do much about it. It is amazing to me that they so willingly accept the unfair advantage given to unqualified people while they, after years of diligent work, are blocked from the opportunity to prosper.
Joe