Ecological historians have often tried to link major environmental phenomena and social unrest leading to revolution. They come up with an environmentally deterministic theory that environment changes are major factors in fueling social unrest leading to revolution.

For instance, the French Revolution is believed to have been partially caused by a summer drought in 1783 followed by an extreme winter in 1784 which are hallmarks of a severe El Nino (ENSO). These two events led to failed wheat harvests and then to rising bread prices, which were the tipping point for the revolution. Ineptitude, corruption and conspicuous consumption in the ruling classes in the light of poor food security have been identified as the key factors in the revolution. Of course we cannot dismiss the importance of Enlightenment ideas and the perceived disconnect of the Roman Catholic Church with the concerns of the poor.

The Russian Revolution had also environmental roots. A spate of severe winters in the early 20th century resulted in poor harvests. The winter was severe in 1914 and with Russia involved in a costly war (as well as the ineptitude of the Tsar and the issue about Rasputin), the end of the Romanovs was inevitable

The 1896 Philippine Revolution had also environmental roots. A spate of El Nino related droughts in the 1880s as well as increasing taxation severely affected the poor’s access to food contributing to the unrest prior to 1896. This has been documented in the studies Luis Camara Dery which have been published and available at reputable bookshops in the Philippines. Even the ilang-ilang flowers were taxed when food was scarce.

Mrs Carmen Guerrero-Nakpil puts its well in her historical essays “For want of flowers, an Empire was lost”

My environmental science students are thinking that with El Nino, poor food security, an extremely corrupt ruling elite and “acts of God” like that earthquake in Tuguegarao :-), we have all the ingredients for revolution.  The tipping point is so near.

While political pundits and op-ed columnists  (who I believe need more environmental and historical sensitivity)  have analyzed EDSA 1, EDSA2 and EDSA 3 , they have missed out that food security was never a major issue in these political upheavals. Common to all revolutionary situations is food insecurity which under yellow tinted glasses may be missed out. Sure corruption and poverty were but those who lived through 1985-1986 would remember that the face of hunger was in that Negros waif named Joel Abong (if I remember correctly). Negros is far from EDSA and the middle classes while they showed empathy were also distant from the issue. But in 2010 the face of hunger can be seen in so many of the urban poor just in front of Manila’s trendy malls where the middle class cools off. There are so many Joel Abongs on the streets.  The smaller middle classes can no longer be distant anymore.

Are we in the El Nino that will tip it over?

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