The facts: Three days ago June 18-19, PAGASA announced that Typhoon Frank (also known internationally as Fengshen), which at that time was located about 800 kms northeast of northern Mindanao, would not make a landfall and would only be in the Pacific and would move north from its present position.

Then, yesterday, June 20, in the morning, when Frank made landfall in Guiuan, Eastern Samar, PAGASA announced that the typhoon path would head northwest over Northern Samar and then Bicol exiting at camarines norte and back to The Pacific (Note: Gov. Salceda immediately announced the evacuation of Albay’s residents at low lying areas). The succeeding pronouncements of PAGASA was that the typhoon would pass through Quezon Province to exit at Laoag City (west-northwest path). In today’s national news, PAGASA announced that yesterday 4 p.m. the center of the typhoon Frank was spotted in the vicinity of western Samar or 50 kms southeast of Catbalogan City packing winds of 140 kms per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph and forecasted to move west-northwest at 19 kph.

The website of U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), which is based in Guam and Hawaii, forecasted today, June 21, that the typhoon will move on a west-northwest direction passing through Masbate, Romblon and Mindoro then exiting to South China Sea. The US JTWC’s forecast is more scientific and reliable than PAGASA because the latter has more highly qualified weather experts, advance equipment and 24 hours satellite scanning as shown by its fairly accurate previous predictions of typhoon paths. Also, aside from the U.S.

Navy, Japan, Taiwan and China (Hongkong) weather centers relied with and link-up with US JTWC. Most of the ocean-going vessels are relying too with the U.S. JTWC.

The reason I bring this “kapalpakan” of PAGASA is that, at this early stage, we really have to bring up this unreliable information peddled by PAGASA to the public to prevent or minimize the loss of lives and
properties. Typhoon Reming (Durian) which happened in November 2006 was such one disaster causing loss of so many lives and properties which can be partly attributed to PAGASA’s faulty weather forecasting.

My suggestion is not complicated. PAGASA should compare its weather forecast first with US JTWC and other countries’ weather forecast such as Japan, Taiwan or Hong Kong before announcing it in public. Relying or adopting (simply copying) highly accurate international weather forecasts of US JTWC by PAGASA is one solution to prevent disasters caused by typhoon. We know that the typhoon season has barely started and that there will be more typhoons to pass our country that could cause far more damage and loss of lives aside from stretching further the already meager government resources.

The preceding was written and submitted by Mabini, a blogger, of JunkJPEPA.com

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