Comments on: Faulty Weather Pronouncements of PAGASA

By: Sylvia

Sylvia — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 04:27:01 +0000

im loking for a Philippine pagasa weather sound track.8s hard to find wat s d accurate word for it for not encountering the interuption of other international forecast.

By: dana

dana — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 08:43:39 +0000

nasan ang mga name n iba bagyo
indi naman totoo ang aerthquakes
indi nyo naman inaayos ang report nyo alam nyo b n takot kmi s pag blita nyo

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 03:41:07 +0000

When you’re dealing with nature, specially when it comes to weather, you’re like going up the creek without a paddle. People don’t understand how
difficult it is to forecast the weather and even here in the US, who has the most sophisticated instruments and continuous ability to take pictures
from numerous geosynchronous weather satellites,
they still can’t give us the most accurate direction/s
of hurricanes/storms. That’s why the names of
typhoons in the Philippines are all female because
storms in the regio are so erratic and hard to
forecast.

The recent tragedy where 800 or so people believed to be dead could be a classic example of ” the boy
who cried wolf”. It’s a possibility that the Captain
didn’t believe the warning from PAGASA and
his pride and ego told him to go ahead. We have two ears, let’s use both of ‘em from two directions and not close one and start making judgements.
Let’s be fair…….

I have the hearts of the people who lost their love ones but I am not in the position to put a blame on
someone/or a group of people until I am certain
who is at fault….

By: alan

alan — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 03:35:28 +0000

solutions are available, its just a question of looking for them and updating,last time this happened didnt the Government advise Pagasa to “Update” their system? So as to reduce the fatalities and damage, give a earlier warning system and more frequent updates of the weather so as to advise the public well in advance of the impending storm…well yes the Government did, and to what success..? Now once more the Government is telling Pagasa to publish more frequent storm advisories….Again….??!!
will anyone get it right this time…??

These are not unjustified comments but opinions of how to find the ways and means of saving lives and as we can see by the recent boat disaster someone is not listening.
ask the families of the lost souls, are they satisfied with the weather predictions and advanced warnings, ask them.

By: Joe

Joe — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 19:43:05 +0000

It’s another Tragedy! But the most tragic event
here is the fingerpointing. People are so immature
their immediate response is to point a finger.
During elections, you can seldom hear from candidates what they can do for the country, but
rather negative insults, informations or remarks against the rival candidate. That’s exactly what’s
going on here…why can’t we suggest solutions instead of giving remarks that only describes
what kind of person we are.

I am convinced that PAGASA is doing their best
with what they have…Equipments, knowledge &
training. Why don’t we give morale to PAGASA men
and women who extends their best beyond their
capabilities to offer us weather forecast informations we deserve. I think it’s unwise for us to give remarks or jokes against PAGASA
with our minimal knowledge of Climate changes, weather patterns, Meteorology and many factors affecting typhoon’s changing of path. I’m sure
there’s a lot of factors involved that is
transparent to us, who, on the sideline making
unjustified comments. I’m positive that after
this incident, there will be a better protocol
between Weather Stations, Departments, or Bureaus
in the whole Asia. Shipping Lines, Airports,
and Coast Guards will give stricter laws. That’s just the way it is, we learn from experience but
fingerpointing, I would say when you point a finger, look at your three other fingers..they’re
pointing at you!

Let’s pray for all the Victims that may God bring them to Eternal Life. To all their families and friends, let’s pray that during this time of sorrow, may he bring understanding, Love and Peace
in their hearts. To all of us, may we come together as one, may God give us the wisdom,
strength, and a common goal of bringing our
country to a safer tomorrow.

By: alan

alan — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 05:19:54 +0000

Typhoon Fengshen may be the deadliest Pacific tropical cyclone since 1991. The death toll in the Philippines now stands at 598 dead or missing on land, with another 800 missing and presumed dead in the wake of the sinking of the ferry MV Princess of Stars. Fengshen (the Mandarin Chinese name for the God of Wind) made landfall over the northern Philippines Saturday, triggering rains and landslides that destroyed 34,000 buildings and damaged 53,000 more, causing an estimated $100 million in damage. According to typhoon2000.com, the Philippines’ deadliest tropical cyclones were Tropical Storm Thelma of 1991 (5101 dead) and Typhoon Ike of 1984 (1363 dead). Left off the list was Tropical Depression Winnie, which killed 1404 people in the Philippines November 29-20, 2004. It appears likely that the death toll from Fengshen will exceed Winnie’s, making Fengshen the deadliest Western Pacific tropical cyclone since 1991′s Tropical Storm Thelma.

Figure 2.Visible satellite image of Fengshen at 4:55 GMT June 21, 2008, 25 minutes after radio contact was lost with the ferry MV Princess of Stars. The ship had left Manila in the Philippines about 8 hours prior to the accident for the 20 hour trip to Cebu. It appears that the ferry ran into the north eyewall of Fengshen when it was at peak intensity, with sustained winds of 110 mph. Fengshen was headed due west when the ferry set sail (track image, lower left), then made a sudden, poorly forecast turn to the north-northwest as the ferry approached the typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

courtesy of Dr jeff Masters of “Weather Underground”

By: Jon Limjap

Jon Limjap — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 04:45:13 +0000

Nobody ever figures out that weather forecasting is not an exact science. Even the most powerful supercomputers to date cannot predict the precise path of a typhoon, an irony considering one of the underlying reasons why the ENIAC was commissioned in the 1940s was for weather prediction.

It’s simply not possible.

And even the most advanced country in the world wasn’t able to do much about Hurricane Katrina. And was widely off mark in evacuating almost the whole of Texas when Hurricane Melissa(IIRC) struck two weeks later.

In the end, nobody knows. Everyone could just make projections.

By: cvj

cvj — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 19:16:23 +0000

As Anne has pointed out above (at 4:23 pm), ‘joining forces‘ with the ‘other more accurate systems around the Western Pacific‘ would not have helped because they also made a mistake in forecasting Frank’s path.

By: alan

alan — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 19:10:48 +0000

I have complained regular over the past 3 years as to Pagasa’s incorrect weather forecasts, and all i get from them is “we are doing what we can” needless to say its not enough. As they, Pagasa, make incorrect forecasts its costs lives and as we can see this time by the sinking of a passenger boat and the loss of so many lives and so many children to, plus the damage done to many areas by their weather forecasts which do not coincide with other and more accurate weather forecasting. Why can they not join forces with other more accurate systems around the Western Pacific? Shame on you Pagasa.

By: anne

anne — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:23:36 +0000

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=community&pgUrl=/mtweb/content/weathermatrix/archives/2008/06/phillipines_typhoon_anatomy_of_a_forecast_bust.asp

Friday, June 20, 2008 12:12 PM
Philippines Typhoon: Anatomy of a Forecast Bust

There was (what some in the media may refer to as) a spectacularly inaccurate forecast this week from the Computer Forecast Models [JessePedia], and that was that Typhoon Fengshen (Frank) would miss the Philippines.

On Wednesday at 5 PM, we issued this map in an electronic press release and (I assume) on AccuWeather.com as a Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO):

The press release stated:

This storm is in its initial stages but has a chance to become a typhoon over the weekend. The future track of the storm will take it away from the Philippines.

This was all based on what is generally referred to as the “Navy” or “JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center” forecast, which (I think) usually does a good job forecaster international hurricanes, and which we would normally have no reason to not believe. Their map at 7 PM Wednesday still looked like this (presumably* it was further east before that).

SO HOW FAR OFF WAS THE FORECAST?

Who among us knows the geography of the Philippines as much as the hurricane-prone regions of the United States. Certainly I do not. So I used Google Earth to help me find out. The Wednesday evening forecast appeared to be off by about 4 degrees of longitude.

Comparing the Philippines to Florida, that would be the equivalent of placing the storm well off the coast, versus onshore 36 hours in advance (or placing it in the Gulf vs. in the Atlantic at a particular time).

I don’t recall off the top of my head how many U.S. hurricane forecasts have been that far off 36 hours in the future, but I’m sure it has happened. Probably not a lot – although models bounce hurricanes around quite a bit in the long-range forecasts, they usually have it more or less pinned down by 36 hours out (which is good because evacuations can take that long). It’s possible that the lack of high-resolution models in the Pacific led to this bad forecast. It’s also possible that the JTWC forecast favored a particular model, such as the GFS, or their own Navy model (the NOGAPS) and they stuck with it until the bitter end (both were still forecasting non-landfalls yesterday morning, click here to download movies of their forecasts from 12Z yesterday and 00Z today).

WHY WAS THE FORECAST SO FAR OFF?

Because I don’t forecast for that part of the Earth, I don’t have any specific insights as to what went wrong here. But as I’ve said before, hurricane/typhoon prediction (and really, the prediction of any low pressure system) depends on how it gets caught in between the cogs (circulations) of other high and low pressure systems. If one of those is weaker or stronger than the models thought, it can make a big difference in the track of the storm (ever seen “Plinko” on the Price Is Right? Try that, but have the size of the pegs dynamically change.)

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Is this a huge bust or normal forecast variability? Would the forecast have been better with better models? Should the Navy have acted faster on the westward model swing? Should we have been more independent from their forecast? Post a Comment below to let me know. I hope you appreciate me bringing this forecast error into the light and not trying to hide it — and I’m not blaming the Navy, they were using the same models that we all have.