“Hell, I never vote for anybody, I always vote against.”—W.C. Fields
I was talking about elections with Pierre.
“A run-off election works best for countries with a multiparty system. It solves the problem of a minority president,” he said.
“How so?” I asked.
“Candidates run in a general election and then the top two vote-getters go mano a mano in a run-off election,” he explained.
“Did you vote for Sarkozy?” I asked.
“No and yes. I did not vote for Sarkozy in the general election but I voted for him in the run-off,” he replied.
“What made you change your mind?”
“I did not change my mind. I still will not vote for Sarkozy in any general election, but I voted for him in the run-off to keep the Socialist Party candidate out of the Elysee.”
“So you voted for the lesser evil.”
“That’s one way of looking at it,” he said.
“That’s sad, isn’t it?”
“Yes, you can say that, but look at what happened in the 2000 US presidential election. Bush won Florida by a hair or, to be more accurate, by hanging chads. Those chads would never have been an issue if only Ralph Nader’s followers had voted for Gore. They knew Nader had no chance of winning the presidency, he was not even on the ballot in many states, but they voted for him to make a statement and.… ”
“But it’s different over here,” I interrupted.
“Let me finish…Gore was the second choice of many of Nader’s followers, but by insisting on their lost cause, they ended up with Bush. Now that, mon ami, is sad.”
“We don’t know yet who’s going to win over here,” I pointed out.
“True, but you know who is going to lose.”
“Well….”
“You do not believe in surveys?” he asked.
“They’ve been wrong before,” I said.
“Do you think the surveys are wrong about JC, Jamby and Perlas?” he asked.
“No.”
“But they’re wrong about Brother Eddie, Gordon and Gibo?”
“All right, so what’s your point?”
“Your country, like the US, does not enjoy the luxury of a run-off election. You only have one chance to vote. Now, if, by this late date, your candidate is still way behind Aquino, Villar and Estrada, then you must accept the reality that he is going to lose. Be proud that you fought the good fight, but now you have to vote for one of the probable winners if you want to keep the other two out of Malacañang.”
“I’m voting for Aquino,” I said.
“Okay, but what if he was not in the picture, suppose your only choices are Gibo, Villar and Erap, what would you do?”
“I won’t vote,” I replied.
“You don’t care which one of them will hold the key to the nation’s vault for the next six years?”
“Of course I do, I don’t want another crook in Malacañang!” I exclaimed.
“Then you must vote against him.”
“I suppose so.”
“Hmmm… well, what if the only choices you have are Gordon, Villar and Erap, what will you do?”
“Sacre bleu! I’ll emigrate to France!”
Vote Aquino for president, against Legarda for vice president, and for senators vote for Joey de Venecia plus 11 Liberal Party candidates. That way you won’t have to become Pierre’s neighbor.
Popularity: 1% [?]
Indeed!
Vote against Legarda! That political whore should be consigned to the dustbin of history for good.
Funnily enough, 18 months ago, when Loren was high on the surveys she would go ‘Nagpapasalamat po ako sa taong bayan sa suporta nila sa akin. Ang mga surveys ay nagbibigay inspirasyon sa akin upang ipagpatuloy…”
Fast forward to now “Ang mga surveys na ito ay flawed! Biased!..”
Ah, Loren, be careful not to press to much on Binay’s bedsheets exploits…..
whats wrong with loren? you and nash seem to both know something about her– what is it?
eh??
Everything is wrong with Loren!
The recent one involves her saying Villar was not fit to be senate president….10 months later she’s saying Villar is fit to be president of the republic.
or how about all the crying she did during Erap’s impeachment and 24 months later, she’s practically sucking Erap’s c@ck just to be a VP candidate.
oh i c. ty nash.
‘…what if the only choices you have are Gordon, Villar and Erap, what will you do?”
“Sacre bleu! I’ll emigrate to France!” – MB
Talking about France, you forgot one great lady, mon ami: Mademoiselle Jambee.
She promised to leave the Philippines for good,if Monsieur Villar is elected President.
Ergo and en tonces: (altogether now) Manny! Manny! Manny!
wag…we need someone to safeguard galunggong and itlog maalat prices.
Besides, wouldn’t it be fun to see how Manny and his surot Alan Peter will fare in a very hostile senate floor now that Manong is poised to be re-elected?
I will understand why a voter would choose Villar over Noynoy. Villar more “presidentiable” given:
Noynoy-productivity while congressman/senator — dismal.
Noynoy ability to work with peers — dismal.
Noynoy understanding of family problems is “preserving the wealth of the clan”, not managing a household with wife/kids.
Noynoy agriculture/farmer issues — dismal.
Noynoy on reproductive health — flipflop.
Making voters choose only between Noynoy and Villar is not a slam-dunk.
Someone two months ago already said “…Villar getting richer by another hundred-million-pesos” is a small price to pay since Pilipinas economy will probably be much better 6 years from now under Villar, not under Noynoy.
go, gibo, go! Gibo, in my opinion, is the best candidate to lead Pilipinas for the next 6 years. Voting for the llamado because the llamado is the llamado is weak, in my opinion.
go Gibo go!! If not gibo, then Gordon.
go Gibo go!!
did you not get the text message from Manong?
It’s now Abnoy v. Erap.
Villar is a goner.
Mike H.
Someone more than two months ago already said,
“Si GMA nagnakaw nung maging presidente, si Villar hindi pa presidente kumuha na ng cash advance!”
Gibo as Congressman = fail
Gibo as DND bigboss = fail
Gibo as NDCC chair = MAJOR FAIL!
What else has Gibo done? Ah, file an impeachment case against CJ Davide to protect dear Uncle Danding who he will later abandon. Poor Gibo, masyadong ambisyoso wala pa namang napapatunayan.
Daming nabobola tsk,tsk,tsk
That’s why I voted for Erap so Villar will not win. At least I’m sure that they will count Erap’s votes correctly.
unrepresentative surveys conditioning the minds of Filipinos..
Personally I’d vote for someone whose convictions I believe in, not because someone else might win if didn’t vote for his closest rival in the surveys. The latter would be no different from the politics of fear, an oversimplification of the elections as a fight between good and evil. … See More
While voting for someone who lags behind in the surveys, I acknowledge the risk he might not win and someone I might not like may win, what is important is I voted for the one my conscience dictates not because he is the lesser evil among the survey frontrunners but because I share his convictions and vision for the country. At the end of the day, what is important is we unite as one country no matter who wins the presidency. After all, taking risks is what this country needs.
if surveys do condition minds, why just unrepresentative ones ?
If you say there are ‘unrepresentative’ surveys, does that imply there are ‘representative’ surveys?
And do representative surveys not condition the minds?
In a recent study it was shown that “releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing” (Restrepo, et al. Public Choice (2009) 140: 395-420)…an older paper showed that a voter’s decision is a process shaped by dissemination of information about a candidate (Yankelovich 1980)
…and Information about a candidate and the likelihood of victory provides the momentum needed for a candidate to win (Butler,Polity (2009) 41, 331–344)….but it’s the candidate who has build up on his initial polling lead to breakaway from the pack and prevent voters from switching their preferences.
Conditioning the minds from surveys? Eklat!
TYE,
At a certain point in time “voting against” is as much a moral imperative as it is “voting for”.
That’s why I framed my article within the context of a run-off i.e. Sarkozy versus the Socialist Party candidate: Whom would you vote against if your candidate was not in the running? Or to put it another way, wouldn’t you vote for the remaining candidate closest to what your original candidate stands for?
There are only three probable winners in this election: Aquino, Estrada, and Villar. Except for CIG and the firm of Ed Malay, all the other survey groups – MST, TNS, dzRH, Pulse Asia, SWS – have found those three candidates (from polls conducted from December to the end of April) in a category all by themselves. It’s as if there were two sets of candidates, the three who are consistently polling in double digits and the five who are consistently polling in single digits.
Of course if you believe that ALL surveys are “unrepresentative surveys conditioning the minds of Filipinos” then you would be right to vote your conscience.
But then again if your candidate is JC De Los Reyes or Jamby then I believe that common sense is a better guide than conscience because neither of them has a chance of winning and a vote for either one of them will only increase the chances of someone their opposite winning the race.
At the end of the day, if your candidate has no realistic chance of winning, you would be doing your country and yourself a disservice if you allow the greater evil to win because you didn’t vote against two of the three probable winners.
then vote for Erap :)
erap voters are SURGING THE
. GATES .polls.go Gibo go!!! But if Erap wins because of the masa, then the Yellah’s and all should stand down and respect the will of the people.
in fact, if Villar pulls the unexpected and edge out Noynoy,
then the Yellah’s and all should stand down and respect the
will of the popularity.
That sounds weird — the will of the popularity — doesn’t it?
But if you don’t expect Pinoys to respect the will of the
popularity, when expect Pinoys to respect the presidency of
the next president?
Packing the bags and going overseas (like Jamby!! or those already overseas like supremo and Abe and Anna de Brux) is always an option.
kung Noynoy vs Villar vs Erap, Erap na lang nga. Sad, but true.
Surveys are a proper tool for tracking how a campaign is going at a particular period in time. The results reflect a snapshot of the public pulse but are NOT in any supposed to be a predictor of results. You can only discern trends at various waypoints but it does not always follow that the end-result of the election will mirror the surveys. This is, of course, premised on the survey being truly scientifically conducted in such manner that bias is prevented or minimized.
But what do we have here in the Philippines? Surveys are being ingeniously used as a mind-conditioning and trending tool to create a bandwagon effect that effectively diverts a voter from making a proper and informed choice. And the worse part of it is that surveys are being invoked by candidates as direct indicators of victory or the basis for claiming they were cheated. This is a recipe for unending chaos.
No matter what you say. No matter what you do…the Machine has now Depression like Noynoy Aquino. The Operating System (the Brain of the computer) is now the issue. It is complicated with the Source Code (Executable Files)…
These people are Smart…like the SMARTMATIC!…Good Luck to the apparent Winner. “Tapos na ang Eleksiyon”…
You don’t have to follow me. Just understand what I am writing. I don’t have any vested interests or hidden agendas. This writings are my gift to my people, the Filipino people…I hope I can capture the Eloquence of this English Novelist…I dont want Bastardize his works. I just want to Filipinize it…to fit our present situation…READ INTENTLY and UNDERSTAND:
“It was the best of the times, it was the worst of the times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of perverted Iglesia Ni Kristo political endorsements, it was the epoch of incredulous election surveys, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the summer of hope, it was the rainy days of despair, we have everything before us, we have nothing before us, we were all going direct to SMARTMATIC, we were all going to the usual way: manual vote counting and cheating – in short, the period was far like the present period, that some of the noisest Zombies on high on “Cloud Yellow” insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.” I EQUALIZE…
No matter what you say…no matter what you do…the Machine has now Depression, like the Depression of Noynoy Aquino…It’s Brillancy Political Chess Game move…Ah,…the Beauty of SMARTMATIC…so much invested…so much wasted…
Equalizer,
I just realized that your unique syntax is similar to that of someone who used to comment on this blog. What was your name then?
bencard?
Diablo? LOL!!!
My name is Legion-for we are Many Voices, crying in the Philippine wilderness of politics…
Too bad no one’s listening…
Hey, you reply…that means you are reading and listening…most of the young are listening…I have good friends among the young…
UP grad, maybe? or can equalizer be the Pacifico something.
Count me in Equalizer, I am now your die-hard follower. . .
Miriam,
Look for my future blog about Old Farts, that ends up ripping youth for not doing enough to oust the elders . . .
Joe
Speaking of UP grad : this is what he said (to Joe Am) recently:
UPnGrad said…
that the Philippines is 50-some years behind Singapore… about 2 or 3 generations behind is a good estimate. That the gap is widening is because Filipinos want to strut that their brains are the match of any other country not realizing that the other countries (Singapore, Thailand, USA, China, Vietnam, Austrlaia) are using the metrics of effort and discipline when it comes to organizing for progress.
Pilipinas keeps waiting for a miracle and hoping that doing it on the cheap is “puwede na”. What a rotten shame.
For the past forty years already, “doing it on the cheap” has been discarded as an engine to progress, the keyword was and still is quality.
The Keyword is INNOVATION. You go sweep the floor, or be “tsimays” in foreign countries. You are paid Cheap. You invent a product, or innovate a system…you name your price…this is the reason Bill Gates of Microsoft Corporation is the richest Man on this Planet…
The predisposition to want to do things on the cheap is
a rot on any country’s psyche. For the past forty years already, “doing it on the cheap” has been discarded as an engine to progress, the keyword was and still is quality.
Quality needs education; quality needs discipline; quality needs focus. Quality needs a people who want better and are willing to work for the future.
hahaha…well…let us go home and vote!
i will not say anything against GIBO that he is stupid and he is the mole ass licker…i will not say against villar that he is the a land grabber…I will not say anything against Noynoy that he is the good president we will have after the mole…i will not say against ERAP that he is the best president we will have today!
many Pinoys in Pinas want Erap to return to malacanang as the president for 2010-to-2016. And the trend of the surveys suggest that many more want Erap than those who want Villar.
Then there is Noynoy — Noynoy has threatened to call the Yellow Army to mass demonstrations ala EDSA people-power if he is not declared winner of persidential May2010 elections.
Then there is Noynoy — Noynoy has threatened to call the Yellow Army to mass demonstrations ala EDSA people-power if he is not declared winner of persidential May2010 elections
Sen. Noy said that in the context of not having clean and honest elections. He never said that he was sure to win. Please try and understand. Asan ang galing at talino?
Good thing the presumptuous one has been rebuffed by the very
people who made EDSA I possible, FVR and the Catholic Church.
Jesus, is this the kind of leader you are going to elect? It is
obvious, he does have some psycho disorder, just look at his
empty smiles supposedly to rejoice over his sure victory on
May 10th when only 1,500 so far were asked by survey firms
run by his relatives. Oh boy, oh boy, Reality Check should give
this guy a dose of some sober thinking. . .
When only 1,500 have been asked? Wahahahahaha! How many surveys have we had in the last few months? Make it 10,000 naman hahahahahahaha!!!!
Again Miriam, check out 7-11 gulp cup (nationwide) and all the other surveys: DILG, SSS, GSIS.
Noynoy by a mile!
Then again, sabi nga ni Money….”Libre ang mangarap!” Hhahahahahaha!!!!
My vote goes to Noynoy. I will use my vote as a weapon against Villar…I cant stand having Villar as president in the next 6 years…
My vote goes to Noynoy. I will use my vote as a weapon against Villar…I cant stand having Villar as president in the next 6 years…
kadiri ba hehehe
It may not be good vs. evil, (NA vs. MV) anymore, but rather competency vs. mediocrity (Gibo vs. Noynoy):
http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/top-stories/16425-gibo-top-pick-for-first-time
Your survey link says Gibo is no. 1 and Villar is no.2. Noynoy is far 3rd. How did it become Gibo vs Noynoy (competency vs mediocrity?)
honga. mali mali talaga logic ng mga giba supporters.
malala na kasi ang cognitive dissonance nila.
I can put my Carabao as the Winner of the Survey…no one can dispute it…
Just got done reading my Twitter column, and momblogger says,
I agree with Noemi, and it’s by a “Long Shot”
The same n_dado who accused Aquino of trending?
Her comment here: When the yellow shines too brightly
baycas,
When things goes wrong, and when the world seems to crumble in front of you, you are then desperate to succumb to just about anything.
She is devoid of substance.
You never cease to amuse me… :)
ganyan naman talaga, porke’t talo kandidato niya, hindi na ‘educated’ ang mga voters. join the fun!
mabuti sana kung hindi fallacious ang logic and reasoning niya.
ang alam ko lang na mal-educado yung mga rah-rah boys ni Gibo.
@MB
do you believe that run-off elections help in multi party countries?
GabbyD,
In a word, yes.
How much is this coming election costing the taxpayers? P2B pesos? P3B pesos? P5B pesos?
Can we do it twice in a year and leave the incoming with a large bill?
A simple, and cheaper alternative is to ask reputable and world renowned firm CIG to do a survey and let only the top 2 run.
kung may makina na gumagana, mas mura ang susunod na election. just print the ballots, ok na.
“kung may makina na gumagana, mas mura ang susunod na election. just print the ballots, ok na.”
GabbyD, after three years, hindi kaya obsolete na ang makina, ‘o kaya hindi na compatible sa mga bagong softwares?
ok. next question is: why?
i have two answers, one is related to strategic voting.
if you have more than 2 candidates, and you really dont want one to win (call him X), then strategic voting is voting for the strongest challenger to ensure X doesnt make top 2.
then, for the top 2, you can now vote according to whoever is best. no more strategic voting in the second round. so, run-offs are good, so we can collectively get rid of candidates we DONT WANT, so in the second round, we can focus on whom we REALLY WANT.
is this ur thinking on this?
GabbyD,
In our system what you can do is to campaign all out for your candidate and, if, despite your best efforts, your candidate still has no chance of winning, then you vote as if you were voting in a run-off.
I call them the Die-Hards but Rene Saguisag calls them the Moist-Eyes Club but our point is the same.
“A final appeal to the Moist Eyes Club: voting for a good bet with no chance is debatable. He withdraws, a bad bet wins. He runs, and takes away enough votes from the baddie to enable a worse one to win. We are taught to avoid a greater evil. No frying pan into the fire again.”
And Saguisag is succinct.
Jean Marie Le Pen….although his brief ascent was mostly due to voter apathy..so hopefully on monday there will be a high turn out.
Ill still vote for Gibo Teodoro… He still have a great chance of winning especially in my home Province… ^_^
CONGRATS PRESIDENT BENIGNO AQUINO III ! ! !