It is just sixteen (16) days to the elections and the campaigns of the tailgaters are in the process of planning their end game moves to pull the rabbit of victory out of the hat of defeat but just as a magician will require magic or the slight of an invisible hand; it seems the elections are more or less over; that is if you believe the surveys. Gibo Teodoro is fighting a quixotic fight against the windmills of fate; by this time, he has come to realize that he has been betrayed and that though he may have the President’s mouth; he doesn’t have her wallet. The continued disintegration of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD through the exodus of its local leaders is the writing on the wall for Gibo; his quoted reliance on his volunteers to carry the campaign to the finish; is an admission that the Lakas-Kampi-CMD is kaput! Gibo’s volunteers, assembled haphazardly at the start of the campaign and with inadequate funds will fare no different from the raw Filipino troops against experienced Japanese during the Battle for Bataan during the Second World War. What must be going through the mind of Gibo Teodoro? Does he have an end game? Will he charge to the end and end his campaign in glorious failure? Will it be said of his presidential aspirations and campaign; that to paraphrase a reference to the charge of the light brigade; “It’s magnificent! But that is not (Political) War!”
Gibo Teodoro will go down fighting! He will finish the campaign! He will lose gracefully; because he is politically naïve and this campaign has proved it. He was seduced by a political master and now he has no alternative but to swallow the poison he has been offered. Gibo Teodoro had a sheltered up bringing; he learned the rules of fair play; he was groomed to be a gentleman; he would never fight with a woman; thus his fate is sealed.
But he can still foil the plan of his puppeteer, who has played him for a fool, if he has the courage to fight! The puppeteer has foisted Gibo as the anointed candidate and has supported another to take the Presidency and ensure a peaceable litigation free future. But the only hitch is that the anointed must win and to this end there is a very great possibility that there will be cheating. It has been reported that the voter’s list is padded from anywhere between 300,000 to 6 million ghost voters. This is not to mention the various computer fraud scenarios making the rounds of the coffee shops. The game plan is to position the anointed close enough to allow the cheating to be credible and win by about a million to two million votes; ala the 2004 Poe vs. Gloria election. The only way to ensure victory is for the leader to win by so large a margin that the anointed has no hope of catching up without affecting the credibility of the election; ala the 1998 Erap vs. De Venecia election. In this Gibo may yet play a crucial part; instead of helping the puppeteer; Gibo could throw a monkey wrench into the puppeteer’s game plan by withdrawing from the race and endorsing the leader. This act is politically sound! It will allow Gibo to live another day by becoming a king-maker. It will give him stature and political capital in the next administration and it will give him a bit of revenge against his true enemy who used him. Gibo should remember that the enemy of his enemy is his friend!
Written by: juan cezar hulberto
sevilla, ilocos sur
Popularity: 2% [?]
hold it guest and read my arguments. check the papers even abs cbn on congressional support.
In addition, out of 82 governors around the country, 54 supports GIBO , 160 congressional candidates and about 65% of total mayors of this country are strongly campaigning for him at the grassroots.
Question: Is it worth voting for the incompetent yellow and the unethical Orange? It’s common sense right for the filipino people to vote for GIBO. He has limited funds for campaign, no actors and actresses , no wowowish except volunteers. I have not witnessed the kind of joy and positivity among the youth except just this election. The youth are actively campaigning and even donating money for GIBO. Instead of buying the votes, the youth are recruiting yellow and orange to become green. Major universities mock polls also show the strength of GIBO. Since I have been doing a lot of consulting online for free, the next weekend, women in business and more professional women will campaign aggressively to educate Mang Juan and Pedro at the grassroots. They will help deliver the votes for GIBO’s landslide victory.
Yes some certain yellow camps are trying to make it look like they are already winning, so they can claim they were cheated if they don’t win. I think they are also trying to raise campaign funds by making it look like they are the winning bet. It’s not right to condition the minds of Mang Juan and Pedro. Educating them is the right strategy.
Representatives Zenaida Angpin (Manila), Ramon Durano (Cebu) and George Arnaiz (Negros Oriental) have quit the Nationalist People’s Coalition to join Lakas Kampi CMD.
Wow, great analysis leytenian, and good to see you back, the guest writer’s perspective of the election is obviously influenced by the two surveys that Gordon is suing. This is yet one clear indication that these two surveys are sabotaging the outcome of this election amidst clear evidence to the contrary that Gibo Teodoro is not going to lose this election. Who was it here who argued that studies showed these two surveys have no effect on the eventual decisions of voters. Multiply the perspective of the guest writer a thousand times in the media, people whose voice get heard louder just because they are media practitioners, and bingo, the election is already over even before voters cast their actual votes.
This writer is another yellow soldier in the guise of an objective journalist. I am glad leytenian is here to show the writer the light, I am too busy to keep up with news back home, but you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that this writer lacks objectivity, as he is only basing his analysis on the two surveys. I still don’t buy the Villaroyo intrigue and why would Gloria give her personal funds to Teodoro’s campaign, once again, this writer is a GMA hater, it is obvious, everything that goes wrong with Lakas party is GMA’s fault. The party has simply gotten too big and has become a loose coalition of different interests to be able to survive the intrigues and the overtures of Villar offering millions.
Despite the active yellow and orange recruitment of Lakas members, which I am sure Lakas members have not done to LP and NP, only an insignificant number has bolted. Headlines after headlines announced unverified defections, with the faint voices of local officials denying the reports, have you ever read how a meeting of local exec. in Cebu was made into a Villar promo. Apparently, the poor local officials signed an attendance sheet and already the manipulators for Villar brandished this to the media as proof that 176 of them have defected. Where is the truth in journalism anymore if everything that gets printed and broadcast seems to be lies during this election, just to weaken Gibo’s base of support.
Gibo will win and leytenian has articulated it here very clearly why.
Saan naman napulot ng CIG survey na yan at bakit mas paniniwalaan yang survey na yan kaysa iba?
Ferchide Abbey aka Abbey Canturias says so…
In my opinion, SWS and Pulse Asia cannot be relied since both may not have considered each member of the population to have an equal and known chance of being selected. When there are very large populations of voters, it is often difficult or impossible to identify every member of the population, so the pool of available subjects becomes BIASED. Philippines voter statistics can be surveyed by age group, economic sectors or campaign spending. I will not explain campaign spending here. Age group is very interesting since the youth age 18-28 comprise 50% of total voters population. Philippines has 51 million total voters. here are the following age brackets:
age 18 to 29 = 25 million nationwide. Thats almost 50% of total voters.
age 29 to 39 = 15.9 million voters. That’s about 30% of total voters
age 40 to 51= 6.12 million voters. That’s about 12 of total voters
age 52 and up= 4.1 million voters. That’s about 8% of total voters.
Randomly picking 1500 samples without considering the percentage of voters in a particular age group will result to a large margin of error. CIG is by far the most reliable as it conforms to international survey standards.
There are three factors for survey accuracy
1. Size of samples ( it’s best to use at least 2500 samples
2. Percentage ( 50% of that samples must come from 18-28 age bracket.
3. Population ( there 51 million voters)
Failure to disclose who were sampled, their age and the percentage of voters in a given age group is not good for Mang Juan and Pedro.
On economic sectors, survey samples must also use the percentage or equal share of a given class.
There’s a high risk that survey companies can be sued to pay damages for publishing biased results. The biased media can also be sued for unfair reporting especially when there’s a pattern of consistent favoritism to a particular candidate. Conditioning the minds of Mang Juan and Pedro can be considered a direct assault to human rights.
I have a nagging feeling that this guest writer has been peeking into my crystal ball behind my back, and I resent that. How else could he have known Gibo’s plan of a pleasant but earth-shaking surpise move before election time.
sorry to disappoint you Bert, no one among the greenies is peeking into your murky crystal ball, sulong Gibo!!!
Luckily, this is just one biased writer whose opinion is simplistic. While it is obvious that he does not like Gilbert Teodoro, Jr, it is quite refreshing to note that many young voters today are already aware of their social responsibilities and one of these is electing a very good, qualified candidate in the person of only one candidate – Gibo Teodoro. Being an ally of President Arroyo does not disqualify him to run. And who is this writer to suggest that Gibo withdraw from the race? Withdraw by mere suggestion from you? He has better things to do than take up your opinion seriously.
A kindred-spirited, thanks for this comment, Gibo will be our next president, over 50% of the new voters are the youth and surveys that oxymoronic media always refer to are not representing the voice of this big bloc of voters. Sulong Gibo!!!
kindred-spirit