Well it seems that religious belief especially in a place for the baddies, we call hell, sheol or inferno is somewhat correlated with economic growth according to this study. I’m sure the researchers used some sort of meta-analysis (I haven’t seen the academic paper) in their conclusion that Protestant economies were about 35 years ahead of Catholic economies in starting the Industrial Revolution. Well it isn’t only a belief in hell, but also a belief in heaven, albeit it has less effect on economic growth. I believe the heaven belief is strongly autocorrelated with the hell belief.
But these trends are true only for developing economies. In developed economies these trends do not follow as people become more secular. The Church is replaced by other venues for socialization and worship. Protestant belief is not really the reason why many people are more entrepreneurial, but their Sola Scriptura theology requires that Protestants be literate in the Bible, which as all we know, is sometimes hard to figure out. Protestants read more than Catholics and are literate it seems. But we have to remember that much of the economic and religious statistics data used were from before Vatican II. After Vatican II, Catholics began reading their Bibles as promoted by their priests and bishops.
Now it also seems that hell is Darwinian! Belief in hell that is. People who really believe in hell tend to be more honest and cheat less and this supports the theory of why altruism evolved. Now a less corrupt society is likely to be more economically progressive. Ask all the 2010 presidentiables. That is THE MANTRA they spout.
The researchers conclude in the best secular way that mass literacy was the reason why Protestant economies grew. Literacy promotion is a consequence of Sola Scripture and was done through mass education. And there are heaps of studies supporting the idea that the longer you are in school, the less fecund you will be. Education is the best CONTRACEPTIVE and the Catholic Church won’t be miffed with that. (the Catholic journalist who is sympathetic to Opus Dei John L. Allen Jr concedes that Capitalism is the better contraceptive) However there is a danger if…..
Some people look at the whole idea as an oversimplification. And this is shown in this PDI article on the possibility of a demographic winter in the Philippines. Population pyramids are graphical models of a natural population distribution. We cannot infer more than what the models can provide. Here is the danger when a Doctor of Sacred Theology does a Doctor of Philosophy in Economics. The Reverend Dr is doing a Bernie Villegas here and his credibility becomes questionable. As we have seen earlier, economies grow or crash due a multitude of factors, some of them may be autocorrelative (like belief in hell which is autocorrelated with a belief in heaven) some quite random but follow a Poisson probability distribution (typhoon related disasters, monsoon flooding) and some quite deterministic, like when the BSP increases interest rates, economic performance is affected.
The Reverend Dr who did the study writes that total fertility rate (TFR) would decline below replacement levels even without the Reproductive Health Bill. This is likely a consequence of a growing economy and increasing opportunities for education which makes people more mobile in their search for a way of making a living. Thus the thesis that the RH bill will drive down TFR is not correct for greater access to education for girls is a better correlate for fertility decline (although in a few societies this trend is not that clear). The only way we can raise TFR it seems (if we are to be simplistic) is to do a Taliban and ban girls from going to school! No sane Roman Catholic would ever contemplate that as a population policy. It is estimated that one year of girls’ schooling can reduce TFR by 0.26 births. When I mentioned this to waggish grad students, they laughed citing that in the Filipino context, PhD means “Pamhabangbuhay na Dalaga”! But I digress.
I support the Reverend Dr”s point in strengthening the family. The family is a social-biological unit that no doubt confers evolutionary fitness. There seems to be no substitute for the family without ruining lives. The State cannot and neither can the Church substitute for one. We know how State run orphanages can ruin lives and we now know how the Church has ruined lives in the paedophile priest sex scandals that have made some dioceses in the US bankrupt.
The Philippine Catholic Church can threaten hell (which can drive economic growth!) or dance with the “Devil” of the RH (which promises “free, informed and non-coercive choice” but excludes abortion) and promote education in its core beliefs (which is a Constitutional right). I have always maintained that one of the biggest failures of the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) in the Philippines is that many Catholics are unchurched (and their number is growing) while priests and bishops dance with the devil called Politics . Well we know where that leads us. Perhaps we should be Protestant in some of the particulars and Catholic in the universals.
BTW. The CBCP has just released a catechism on Family and Life for the coming elections. It is good that the Church is educating its flock. But how the flock will vote is something to be seen. Some conservatives I was told, would vote for Gibo simply for his flip flop on the RH bill. They won’t vote for the Ateneo trained Noynoy since he stands for the RH bill. But it seems that Reproductive Health is not really on top of voters concerns for 2010. And Noynoy knows that.
Ben Vallejo
PS: Wags have told me that the Philippines is in a hell of politicians’ making and yet our economy barely grows!
Popularity: 1% [?]
Good article. Demographic winter indeed.
Family traditions or values in the Philippines are fascinating. Families form and disband without marriage, deadbeat dads abound, granny raising the kid while mom works is common, yet, as an adult, the family obligation and tie is like an iron chain. Loose and tight together. I can’t figure it out. The commonality I suppose is that nowhere is there a whole lot of INDIVIDUAL responsibility.
Joe
Pinoys-in-Pinas are romantics. Practically all forgiven, including deadbeat dads and travellers who quit when it rains especially when trekking up a hill with a 5-degree incline, as long as one claims “I surrender my fate to the Lord.”
UP n,
I was listening to the radio on the two-hour drive to the mall today, and all of a sudden heard what sounded like prayer and “have mercy on us, Jesus”. I am inclined to think that people make a lot of their own mercy, or lack thereof. Jesus or other extra-human folk may drop in to stir the brew a bit, but there is nothing like good old initiative . . .
Joe
Mababaw lang ang kaligayahan, is all. Don’t know whether that’s good or bad, don’t know which are the happier and more easily contented people, the Americans or the Filipinos.
Based on their carbon footprint, Filipinos!
Joe
I remember Prof Butch Dalisay of UP speaking at an American education marketing blitz in a Makati hotel a few years back about the benefits of a US college and graduate education. The demographic targeted for the blitz were the sons and daughters of the country’s elite and their parents.
He said and I quote “One of benefits of an American college education is that your children will learn how to tie their own shoes.”
I guess these privileged kids who attended Ateneo, La Salle and even UP had servants to tie their own shoes!
Individual responsibility begins when one learns how to do things for themselves.
That’s one of the things I like in the West.
blackshama,
Precisely.
I was also reflecting today during my drive through the beautiful hills and rice planes of northern Leyte, mountains framing everything against blue skies and fluffy clouds, there is no way I would trade the depth of life in the Philippines for a home on easy street in a mundane suburb of the US of A.
Joe
erratum: hah, plains. Rice planes are what they use to plant the rice in California’s mega farms, up by the Sacramento delta.
blackshama,
I can easily imagine that marketing blitz was a total flopped, zero recruit, and, knowing Prof. Butch Dalisay as an ardent UP nationalist, had botched it…on purpose.
The Iglesia Ni Cristo Church tells its member to vote for what their
church Supremo choose. Otherwise, you are “tiwalag” and go to Hell.
so, Politicians go for pilgrimage to the INC Supremo to pray for votes.
The Churches or religions have nothing to do with our Economic conditions. People in Japan mostly believe in Shintoism and Budddism. And, they are business minded and technologicaly advanced. China is a communist/atheistic society. And it leads in commerce.
Hell, Heaven, Purgatory, Paradise, 72 Virgins in Paradise. These beliefs
regarding religious dogmas and doctrines. Produced fears; stultifies the
mind development; promoted religious fundamentalisms; were the causes of
religious wars and suicide bombers. And made religious leaders in some
denominations very rich. Commercial Religion, Anyone?
There are three points I do agree with, namely:
1. the poorer the country, the more corrupt it is and the richer it is, the less corrupt
2. there is indeed a correlation as distinguished from causation between total fertility rate and greater or longer access to education on the part of the girls, which means that, girls in school have less focus on ‘birthing’
3. there is really a nationwide movement that tries to identify candidates who are pro-RH and those against the RH bill, which means that, they will not vote for the supporters of the controversial RH bill
From the Darwinian point of view, the so-called Catholic vote is nothing but a myth.
I predict that they will say “Do not vote for Erap!”, this group voting based on the Reproductive Health bill. But how will they vote regarding a candidate who tells the bishops that of course he and his mom before him are strongly Katoliko (and surely he won’t espouse abortion!!!!) while encouraging his campaign to spread the word to UP-diliman, FEU and many other NGO’s to believe that he is pro-condoms pro-ReproHealth bill?
You know, when you think about the true morality of the Catholic Church, which is fundamentally upstanding if a little too principle-bound for my liking, and recognize the influence held here in the Philippines by that church, is it not a sign of outright FAILURE of the church, if not local BANKRUPTCY, that the country’s moral bearing, as represented by the wanderings of its higher echelon government leaders, is so amiss?
Does the church accept accountability for ANYTHING? Or do they simply wash their hands with holy water, say their meaningless confessions, and blather on? They rail about reproductive rights legislation, penalizing the poor, while keeping a blind eye turned toward the errant ways of the empowered sinners. Jesus turned inside out, methinks.
Joe
Joe. Try suing the Church.
Revolution Filipina,
Oh, I think it would be hard to prove any legal wrong. A twisting of moral perspective is not a crime and speech is free even if it is irresponsible. However, it seems to me that Philippine Catholic Church offers a contribution to mankind so far beneath its potential that even the plaster statues weep.
Joe
Very well-written piece, Blackshama.
Could someone kindly forward the info below to the Rev Dr as he has apparently overlooked it rather conveniently? It’s from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) in Manila:
“The Reproductive Health Status in the Philippines
In the Philippines, 3.4 million pregnancies occur every year, half are unintended, one-third of which end in abortions (2009, Guttmacher). An estimated eleven mothers die of pregnancy-related causes every day, most of them could have been avoided in a well functioning health care delivery system. Among the leading direct causes of maternal deaths are post-partum hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, abortion-related complications and obstructed labor. Beyond the stark data of mortality lies a huge toll of ill health and disability due to pregnancy-related complications and infant and child deaths and deepening poverty in families where a mother has died. It is estimated that for every maternal death there is at least 20 to 30 other women who suffer from serious complications, some of which are life-long. Maternal health conditions are the leading causes of burden of disease among women.
Only 21.6 percent of all Filipino women of them are using the modern method of contraception, 68.4 percent of these women are not currently using any method, with 9.9 percent using the traditional method. Approximately 85 percent of those not using any method become pregnant within a year. Those using traditional methods have extremely high rates of unintended pregnancy per year.”
Thanks!