The title of this post sums it all. It came from one of my PhD students who is with a government bureau tasked to look at agriculture in many provinces around the Philippines. She has been traveling and assessing the effects of the latest ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) in the Philippines.
I would agree. It is really bad. And like her, I have been traveling in many places in the Philippines since December and I have noticed that this 2010 ENSO episode could tip the Philippines over the edge. In Ilocos and Cagayan Valley, I have seen wilted corn, dried up fields with the rice crop planted last December failing to make it to harvest and the wilted veggies. Perhaps nothing hit me hard (being a pinakbet lover that I am) that the eggplants were being harvested and they were almost as thin as a purple “sitaw”. Since calabasa is a crop that requires a lot of water, we may be served pakbet with only sitaw and no talong, okra and calabasa!
The latest stats on how much has been lost due to the ENSO is in the news and it runs at least to 3 B pesos. The loss can be as much as 10 B or more considering we are just at the start of the 4 month long hot and dry season. My student briefed the class about the fact that ruminants (cows and carabaos) are now dying. The network news report that chickens are dying in central Luzon poultry farms. In Cagayan, I was told by farmers that they may have to cull their “itik” since these birds cannot survive the expected long periods of extreme heat.
And this remark came from Tuguegarao and Iguig residents! Cagayanos are used to living in summer temps of up to 40 C and to a certain extent, that is a source of pride. But now they are worried that they would have this temps for long stretches of time.
I am not a stranger to bad ENSO episodes. I spent a few years in the land of ENSO a.k.a northern Australia. I have experienced the worst of the dry and the wet. But Australians especially those living in regional Australia, are used to this climate phenomenon. Filipinos have experienced ENSO but I believe that nobody at present has experienced this kind of ENSO we have now. I keep on telling my students that this kind of ENSO is considered bad even by Australians.
While ENSO has periodically affected Australia for millions of years (The kangaroo is an example of a mammal that is perfectly adapted to ENSO!), Australian food security isn’t threatened much by a bad episode since Australia is a large country but has just 20 million or so people. The Philippines on the other hand, has 90 million or more people, an archipelagic country and is a rice eating nation that now imports a huge fraction for its needs. Rice as we all know is a water intensive crop.
We don’t really know if this ENSO is somewhat directly linked with global warming although some climate models predict that we will have a global climate pattern called a “general ENSO state” (Collins et al. 2005, Climate Dynamics, 24, 89-104) which means more expected and we hope not permanent ENSOs and probably drier conditions on our part of the planet.
The current ENSO and its agricultural effects has environmental scientists worried. On the human health side, many Filipinos have no experience of prolonged hot and dry weather. This is revealed that for many of us, the experience of extremely hot weather is limited to “Holy Week” and that really only lasts for 4 days! Extended periods of having 38 C or more temps in Metro Manila may result in a higher death rate among the elderly and those with cardiovascular health problems similar to what was experienced in the European summer heat wave of 2005, when an estimated 10,000 people or more died. The Europeans were not used to having prolonged spells of temperatures above 33 C. While PAGASA may forecast Manila to have 34-35 C temps, our heat island research points out that the real temps due to the effects of a built -up environment can be 3-4 C more than the forecast temperature. So we can have extended periods of having 39-40 C temperature. People living in desert climates are used to this and have behavioral adaptations to cope with this, but I doubt if we Filipinos have these adaptations.
But as a wag told me, we Filipinos are particularly adapted to talking about politics. (FV posts are a supreme example!)
But seriously, the food security situation is beginning to look dire and it is just the end of February. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo may turn over the presidential palace to her successor on June 30 with a famine on her train. Ask any of your grandparents who lived through World War II. They would tell you that the Filipino people experienced famine within the last century only during the Japanese occupation and that was not due to climate change but to colonial master change!
The next President of the Philippines should now be aware that even as a candidate poverty or corruption are not the immediate problems but food security. Surely these are problems but their solutions will take more than one presidential term. Food security can be immediately addressed at the start of the term.
And last September Catholic bishops ordered an “Oratio Imperata” against the rain. Now they are ordering another for rain!
If I were God……….I would say “Wait a minute. You brought this upon yourselves!”
And BTW God is still kind, He/She allowed the evolution of the supreme ENSO veggie which is none other than sigarilyas. This bean requires little water or fertilizer, and is nutritious filled with protein and vitamins and likes this kind of weather we have now.
And this I reflect on as I gaze into a cloudless Philippine sky and recall my days as a student living in northern Australia’s dry!
Popularity: 2% [?]
everything is politics – including who/what causes climate change and the ways to deal with it, the resources needed, who bears the brunt etc. there’s a reason why the climate talks last december failed – politics.
I agree. And we among other countries are bearing the brunt of the refusal of countries to commit to genuine environment reforms.
However, I believe we are not a major rice-importing country. As a matter of fact, we get most of our rice needs from other countries.
Sparks,
The “politics” which led to the lack of success at the global climate meeting is really a conflict of economic interests. China, India, the US, all have huge economies resting on what they do. They can’t easily commit to drastic changes.
It doesn’t help that there are so many naysayers about climate change, who would take the risk that changing weather is just a fluke and argue that nothing needs to be done. They only bet the world. Certainly, more intense storms are real and dried-up rice fields are real. Whatever the reason. And one ought to be working hard at preparing and countering these realities.
For myself, I believe it is too late. I believe the planet has already tipped over the edge of global warming that will have catastrophic impacts from now over the next 100 years. Ondoy was just one example. Katrina another. New York snows another. Humankind is largely blind to long-term trends, whether it be the unsustainability of social security funding or global warming. Just give us our reality shows and let our kids deal with it.
I watch National Geographic specials on ice melting and feel it is rather like watching a horror movie. And the ghouls with bloody fangs and slashing knives keep marching this direction . . .
No one expected that global warming would come crashing down so fast that WE would be the kids.
The Philippines needs to get serious about climate change. No nation is more vulnerable, and none has done less.
Joe
Pilipinas… in wait-mode. USA, Europe, Japan, China — they caused it, then their responsibility — they have to solve it.
Besides, Noynoy’s position is “… no new taxes”!!!
Mike H,
Like the US is going to come to the Philippines and build dikes and relocate cities? Going to send shiploads of rice for free? Because the Philippines does nothing and in doing so becomes the beggar nation of Asia whenever a disaster strikes? THAT kind of responsibility?
Small, inexpensive planning steps now, or big, expensive disasters later.
Joe
Different folks, different strokes. Some folks are good at the analysis whether fault can be pinned on to GMA, Marcos or Cory, the WTO or the Washington Consensus, and if not them then gotta be those dang invaders from the 16th century — their fault!!
Then there are those — good at making things happen and dealing with “what’s next, identifying obstacles and then people-, material- and other resources to get past them to make progress.”
We are going full circle now, they caused it, we are the victim of their follies, and the victim is being faulted while the perpetrators painted as saints, hehehehe.
Dami talagang problem dito na ang solusyon population control.
population control is not needed since the CBCP has issued the all-powerful Oratio Imperata…wait for manna to fall from heaven..
(It’s only a matter of time before one Bishop will say this drought is due to our ‘sins’/homos/secularism etc.)
Kapag nagpatuloy ang ganitong usapan siguradong tataas ang rating ni Nick Perlas.
about 45 minutes ago, Pacific Ocean tsunami alert from Chili’s 8.8 magnitude quake is a threat! Philippines over 7100 islands ? Prepare and get those fishermen and floating coffins out of the sea. It’s 11:10 AM in Florida now and probably 11:10 PM in Philippines.
blackshama, vegetables in Leyte were delicious-Big squash, eggplant, string beans, garbanzo, upo, carrots, okra. I took pleasure in shopping organic and natural vegetables from a tiny nipa hut shop without elbowing into a stinking crowd. I have noticed a charming progress around my people. I think they know better. We had our particular catastrophe too- Ormoc tsunami with over 10,000 dead and Guinsaogon landslide of over 3000 automatically buried. It was not an El NINO consequence, but it was absolutely man-made.
Education and support to farmers can keep people healthy . plant more trees and demand from government to invest on climate high technology like a US climate service provider, for example.
and why is Richard Gomez running for office in Leyte? Help me get him out and away from my people. our people deserve better. enough of this popularity contest.
Chile would be a good model for the Philippines to follow. Their response to countries offering aid, essetially: “No, thank you. We have prepared for such eventualities and can take care of ourselves.”
Joe
Blackshama,
I have an article coming out this week. I actually think that most in the article can be done but you being a scientist can discern whether its doable in your field. I e-mailed an advance copy to MLQ3 to do as he wishes before it comes out.
Unfortunately, it will mostly deal with future problems. But given that I’ve talked about this elsewhere several years ago, such solutions (if doable) should have been done several years ago.
Leytenian,
The tsunami warning is up in Hawaii. We’ll get to see how bad it is once it does get there. I hope its not bad.
Tsunami warning up in Aurora, Pacific side of Quezon and Bicol provinces. The wave is expected to hit at around noontime of Sunday.
I hope so too JL. welcome back btw!!. i missed you here. My concern are those floating coffins transporting people in our seas, the deep sea fishermen and the coastal nipa hut residences.
I may not be that bad in hawaii as they are already equipped with emergency procedures and equipments.
Let’s make people aware. it’s time for another big time AWARENESS requiring public officials to think ahead.
The weather of this Planet Earth will continue to be unpredictable.
If you believe in Religious Prophecies. We are near the End of the
Era. If you believe in Science. We are in Global Warming or Global
Cooling Stage. Whatever you believe. We cannot do anything about these
climate changes. What will come. Will come. Religious or scientific.
Buckle your seatbelts. It will surely be a bumpy ride!
The latest news I got: fish kills in Isabela. Cause: excessive heat sucked oxygen from fishponds. I dread the thought of oxygen sucked out of air we breath.
It is a possibility. If an Asteroid hit this Planet Earth.
An Asteroid had hit the Planet Earth millions of years ago.
It killed the Dinosaurs and other large animals. They require
huge amount of oxygen in order to survive. Be a cockroach.
It is an animal that can survive anything. Including low
oxygen.
A few thoughts on climate change: (1) follow example of Igorrots – recycle farm waste for organic fertilizers; do not use chemical fertilizers, maybe also herbicides and insecticides, bad for soil and waters; (2) withdraw coconut products from exports and turn these into diesel fuel to replace fossil-based, stop jathropa production, will shrink food supply(3) restore the sugar industry to level of 60s and produce more alcohol to replace gasoline (seek assistance of Brazil); (4) establish solar-powered desalination plants for irrigation and drinking (seek assistance of Israel; in late 30s, Quezon provided safe refuge to Jews persecuted in Germany; a monument to commemorate this generosity was inaugurated last year in Israel).
The more Filipinos we produce, the more we can pack the churches and hence the more powerful the Oratio Imperata will be!
And they don’t know a clean locker, from a filthy locker. Hence the churches wants more of you pence, pass the bucket please. Hallelujah!
earthquake in Chile: the big picture here.
Climate change, or global warming, is largely unchallenged. Science easily collates data that can show that using certain geologic time frames global climate does oscillate, at times warming, at times cooling.
It is when global politicians interject the concept that global warming is anthropogenic, meaning that it is caused largely by man and his activities that its gets muddled. Al Gore and company insist and demand that we accept that it is so, as unquestioned fact.
Now the “science” that is supposed to end any debate on the matter is slowly unraveling. It started with those leaked emails. And now supposedly iron-clad claims are slowly being debunked and those in the forefront being exposed and embarrassed.
Let’s get science doing what it does best, away from politics and politicians, and any group with hidden personal agenda.
Agree. I just hope nobody connects this Chile quake and tsunami to anthropogenic causes.
I bet the Catholic Church and religious nutters will connect the movement of the plates to man.
It is the shaking of the beds (among unmarrieds and among re-marrieds) that caused the shaking of the plates. Chile has divorce. And condoms — Chile has strong reproductive health programs.
You mean it was a low population density and strict adherence to building codes and not prayers that reduced casualties and didn’t cause buildings to collapse in a stacked pancake fashion?
That’s blasphemy! Oratio Imperata, ngayon din.
I doubt if any condom will fit the early Visayans. To find out follow this link.
Edward,
So you are willing to bet the planet that the global warming scientists are talking trash? These are people of considerable education and skill who perform their duties on a volunteer basis.
Joe
Climate change is a fairly new pursuit in science and the timescales involved are practically longer than one generation’s lifetime.
But even if SOME or ALL of climate science is hard to believe for many (and skepticism is certainly healthy for science), it CANNOT be denied that the RISE in human POPULATION and the resulting human activity is damaging and polluting the environment, perhaps faster than it can heal itself.
So some of us may not believe in global warming and/or its rootcause but I bet everyone can feel the heat of summer, more so now than decades ago when there were still green areas in the metropolises and there were large unpolluted bodies of water.
Nashman,
I still say to do nothing is to bet the planet. To plan for rising seas, changing micro climates, and more intense storms is prudent. Small, incremental steps now, or big expensive disasters later.
Joe
Yes. Small steps.
But this has to go hand in hand with stabilising the population growth rates.
Is the number of typhoons that hit the Philippines every year increasing? Is the intensity of these typhoons that make landfall in the Philippines getting stronger? The data says no. There are simply more Filipinos per square metre now, living in areas that are either crowded, or that should not have been inhabited, that there are more typhoon victims each year. As humans move about, the resources around them gets depleted too. Climate change is the least of their worries in their lifetime.
I attended this DOST event last year where one speaker gave a talk on climate change mitigation and all that but it was blank from the population perspective. So how can you plant trees when you need the land to house people?
Nash,
I wholly agree on population. It is like debt, it burdens future generations with lack of jobs and food. It has nothing to do with abortion. It has everything to do with education and self discipline.
Joe
Headline today: “Reyes to Palace: Declare power crisis in Mindanao”. Who says we are not doing something? OMG!
funnily enough, nagsisigaw-sigaw sina Chiz “Boy Laway” Escudero and Loren Legarda last year about why dams are very conservative when it comes to opening their spillways. “Dapat 230 metres pa lang nagrelease na!” screamed Chiz ‘Boy Laway’ Escudero…nevermind that he did not come prepared with technical data if dams caused the flooding in light of the record-breaking rainfall.
Ngayon, sugurin si Chiz Escudero baka ang laway niya makakareplenish ng hydro dams.