The results from the latest SWS Survey that asked who would be a good president to succeed President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010 was published by Inquirer.Net yesterday. It looks like those who have invested on early political advertisements (masked as advocacy campaigns) are on the right track when it comes to playing the survey numbers.
Senator Villar and the OFW
The person with the most noticeable gain is former Senate President Manny Villar. If you check the surveys last year, Senator Villar was always at the fringes of the top 5. Millions of pesos later in television advertisements, billboards, event sponsorships, and PR, he now stands as one of the strongest contenders for the top post in the land. The C5 scandal, which Senator Lacson exposed, barely made a dent on his numbers as he only slid down 1 measly point from 28% to 27%. I assume that the number of people who watch noontime shows and Telenovelas (where Senator Villar places his ads) is much higher than those who watch the news.
Bayani Fernando and the Film Festival
MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando, though not high in the survey, registered a slight increase in his ratings to 2%. Personally I’d attribute this to the insane exposure he’s getting from the abuse of funds of the MMDA and even the Metro Manila Film Festival. Did any of you watch a movie during the MMF? There were like 2-3 advertisements of Bayani Fernando before the movie actually showed. There was one explaining the MMF and another on the projects of the MMDA. What’s even more mind-boggling is how government funded tarpaulins of the METRO MANILA Development Authority end up in the provinces.
Senator Loren Legarda and Estrada’s Endorsement
Senator Loren Legarda was sliding in the rankings for the past few months but she’s finally back on track with a 2% increase. There are so many factors that can be attributed to this but I’d like to point out three major events that might have helped. First is the exposure she got in the Ces Drilon abduction. She played a “crucial” role in the release of the veteran broadcaster. Another would be her advocacy television advertisements which have aired in the past month. I can’t remember what exactly she was talking about in the ad though (hehe). Last, but not least, would be former President Estrada’s “endorsement”.
Oh I also remember seeing Senator Legarda’s street lamp tarpaulins all over EDSA when she was still endorsing Lucida (which Gabby Concepcion picked up after).
Senator Lacson and Facial Care
I’m not sure if the billboard is still there but there was this huge ad of Senator Lacson endorsing a facial care product. Talk about a radical change in brand equity! Here’s a guy that’s supposed to be one of the most aggressive and no-nonsense politicians and here he is endorsing stuff that will make you look er… prettier. Anyway, it looks like the billboards and the newspaper ads aren’t working for Senator Lacson since he slid down 3% in this survey. The ad says “Results Matter”. If that’s the case, I highly suggest you drop this campaign sir since it has obviously backfired.
On a side note though, Senator Lacson looks 10 years younger in the advertisement, hehe. I found this picture I took of the ad in my other blog.
Vice President De Castro
By staying clear of all the problems hounding the current administration, Vice-President De Castro has found a way to maintain his top rank in the surveys. There was also a time where he was used as an endorser in one of the housing programs of the government. More than anything, I think he’s playing his cards right. The moment he becomes too involved with GMA is the day his ratings plummet to the bowels of hell.
Senator Roxas and Expletives
In the rally against charter change, Senator Roxas really surprised everyone when he hurled expletives. While this should have supposedly helped him in the surveys since it made him more human and brought him closer to the masses, it actually didn’t. He’s down 3% from 13% to 10%. I’m sure now would be a good time to cry out with expletives if I were him. Note though that Senator Roxas has also started playing the media game for 2010. I remember seeing his advertisements on television (noontime show in GMA 7 I think) a few days ago.
Edit: Rose pointed out that Senator Roxas’ speech was done after the survey period, thus it’s effect is not yet shown on the survey. It will be interesting to see if this move made an impact in next quarter’s SWS survey or the upcoming PULSE Asia survey.
I have this bad feeling that the political advertisements will continue to spam the airwaves for the coming months. This trend will definitely make the 2010 candidates believe that spending as early as now is the key to ensuring victory come the elections.
I’m also fairly sure that a lot of these candidates will tap the internet for early campaigning as well. US President-elect Obama made such a huge impact with his online campaign that it wouldn’t be too far fetched for local politicians to do the same. Maybe we’ll see more political/advocacy ads on Friendster, Facebook, and Multiply soon.
It might be too early to declare a winner, but there’s one group of people who are definitely raising their arms and shouting out in victory – the major television stations: GMA 7 and ABS-CBN. 2009 will be a record breaking year for their sales in terms of political/advocacy ads.
*Disclosure: I used to work for Senator Roxas as his consultant for New Media. However I am no longer in his employ and I am not connected to any politician mentioned in this article (er… well for the mean time, hehe).
Popularity: 4% [?]
i wish they’d break the media release a bit more. i want to know if bayani’s 2% is true for national only, but not for Luzon/MM…
I would have wanted to hear from Carlos what has sustained De Castro’s all time edge over the rest of the pack such as those political ads on Pag-Ibig in all tri-media outfits.
For not taking any well defined stand on any issue of large societal concern, I will never vote for a Noli de Castro.
Isn’t there anymore a political ad ban, Carlos? Please educate us.
The data might be easier to interpret as a pie chart. Or at least put error bars (plus or minus 3% confidence limits) on each data point. to see who are actually in a dead heat. For example, it looks like the Top Three are close to a statistical dead heat, as well as the next three and the last two.
But we are too much into the horserace to bother understanding what the stats actually say, strictly and mathematically speaking.
The survey tested the power of RECALL. The interviewee was not given a list of names of the politicians. They were asked face-to-face which means they have to rely on their memory of names.
For the presidential hopeful, this is something to think about. Their names do not ring a bell to the respondents.
If the political bloggers are made to endorse the candidates, only the middle income population would get the message.
The bulk of the voters may not even have an internet.
So what contributes to the recall? Radio…the ever reliable gadget that people in all walks of life use despite the advanced technology.
That’s okay, Cat. Even AM Radio announcers use the Internet to get their news and as bloggers become more accepted and the Web itself a form of uber-media, our stuff trickles down and deluges out through the MSM too.
It’s that penetration by bloggers into the MSM, and infection–hehe–that we must do everything to encourage and promote. By invading the brains of those at the mikes and behind the cameras, the script writers, producers and moguls, all of whom have or want iphones, ipods, pcs, macs, — our stuff.
@karlpooper: I’m researching on that now. Based on all my findings though there’s nothing that will cover advocacy ads. The current Omnibus Election Code is kinda outdated and vague. There’s even no mention of the internet yet. I’ll make a follow-up post sometime this week when I get the data.
@DJB: I would have wanted it to be in a pie-chart but the total sum won’t reach 100%. It’s presidential mentions I think so people who answer the survey can give more than 1 answer. My main goal here is to just point out the trend on political advertising on MSM.
I agree with you 100% that the internet will play a bigger role in this. A lot of influencers are lurkers on the online space. That combined with the fast internet user growth rate should give candidates a reason to look to the net for their campaign.
@The Cat
Yes, Radio plays a crucial role. That’s why you hear a lot of politicians on AM almost everyday. >.<;;
Thanks for the comments guys.
yehey, more of the netbooks…
the more we can view mr. paleng-chie and others…
:(
surveys surveys surveys….the highest bidder always gets the most pogi-points..
hi carlo,
this is more like it, my friend! Keep this all up. submit more entries.
Hi Carlo! Re: Sen. Roxas and the Expletives,
since the SWS survey was done between Nov 28 to Dec 1, 2008, we still don’t know if the “expletives” will have an effect on his numbers since the anti-chacha rally happened on dec 12, 11 days AFTER the survey period. :)
“since the SWS survey was done between Nov 28 to Dec 1, 2008, we still don’t know if the “expletives” will have an effect on his numbers since the anti-chacha rally happened on dec 12, 11 days AFTER the survey period”
If Rose have not pointed that out di ko din mapapansin
Oh, you have a point Rose. Sige, let me edit that part out. Thanks!
have nothing to say about escudero?
Money talks, BS walks. All that survey they can shove it up their… pubis maximus and set it on fire.
I think voters dont rely much of Survey result or even be influenced by others on whom to vote for . They have their choice unfazed by others comments.
may the voters be intelligent in choosing the candidates not depending on their political ads.
could you please post a link, articles or latest sarvey on the impact of political ads ang infomercials?
salamat.
gs2 ko manalo si villar tapos si binay okaya si gibo!! :)))