Just an hour ago I was in touch with the former chair of the UP Geography Department, now with the Australian National University (ANU) Prof Doracie Zoleta-Nantes as we discussed the Ondoy disaster. Prof Zoleta-Nantes is one of the few scientists we have who has an expertise on disaster geography and how society responds. I am a sort of geographer but I deal with how biodiversity responds to environmental changes. My recently concluded study is on the…….ta dah…. Marikina River system. I am keenly interested on how the Janitor fish responded to Ondoy. But it seems I have to deal now with how Homo sapiens responds to disasters.
Anyway, when I was an affiliate faculty member with the geography department, Doracie was the chair and she was then working on flood hazards. That was 4 years ago. In fact her doctorate is precisely on this subject. Today she told me she just got fed up warning people in government about the problem, gave up and hopped to Canberra. I can understand her exasperation. Anyway that is indeed typical. Prophets are never heeded on their own turf.
So she says “Don’t say I didn’t warn you!”
The warnings come in a series of papers, most notable are
Zoleta-Nantes, DB (2000) Flood hazards in Metro Manila: Recognizing Commonalities, Differences and Courses of Action. Social Science Diliman 1: 60-105
Zoleta-Nantes, DB (2002) Differential impacts of flood hazards among street children, the urban poor and residents of wealthy neighbourhoods in Metro Manila, Philippines. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 7: 239-266.
For the benefit of readers who can’t wade through academese, I have summarized Doracie’s major conclusions
1) Changes in land use have worsened the flood problem. These include reclamation on Manila Bay, deforestation in Rizal (contributing up to 50% sediment load on the rivers, especially Marikina) and substandard subdivision development (especially in Quezon City)
2) Since the 1900s, flooding has been moving eastwards with Doracie predicting that areas that Ondoy sunk really will sink. In these areas up to 0.33 m of land has subsided.
3) Overpopulation, poverty, lack of job opportunities and wide scale displacement of farming communities as a result of political and social unrest, worsens the problems
4) With more of the NCR being flood prone, whereas floods in other countries are regional disasters, floods in NCR is a national disaster which the government is ill equipped to address. She also suggests that the private sector efficiently fill in the response gap government cannot address.
5) The need for a more centralized authority to deal with the problem
6) Improved flood warning system. PAGASA should be more frequent in its advisories Flood warnings should be directly to the baranggay. (Doracie did her study when texting was still in its infancy. She suggested hand held radios)
Doracie also predicted that even gated communities will face the same vulnerabilities as the urban poor. In her study 97% of residents in flood prone gated communities were inundated. However only 37% suffered damage. In adjacent urban poor communities, 85% did. The rich can fill in for disaster relief response in their own areas which include the adjacent urban poor if they can realize that the hazards they face are the same with that facing the poor. Also very few of the rich have flood insurance.
For the physicians reading this blog post, Doracie’s findings that even the rich would tend to self-medicate if they get sick because of the flood should be interesting. This self-medication cuts through all socio-economic classes.
These studies were done during Erap’s presidency. Reading through Doracie’s papers, I realized that almost everything she wrote came to pass last Sept 26.
These flooding events will be expected to come in almost yearly intervals.
The Ondoy flooding is unique in that the 80% of the national capital region sank resulting in a national disaster. This hasn’t happened anywhere else or anytime in recent history. Sure Atlantis went under the waves, but that is still in the realm of myth!
Popularity: 3% [?]
More than 3 years ago, blogger/urban planner Urbano Dela Cruz has innovative solutions for our flooding problem. Check this link:
http://hundredyearshence.blogspot.com/2006/02/green-infrastructurerethinking-our.html
I owned four townhouses and three single-family units in Fairfax, Virginia. All of them (from the first one I bought 17 years ago) have water-detention facilities. Those ideas in “urbano green-infrastructure-thinking” blog have been encoded as zoning laws in the decadent suburbs of metro-Washington DC for over twenty years already.
I know Urbano de la Cruz personally from high school days. He has a Harvard degree on urban planning and once in a coffee shop on Dupont Circle in Washington DC, he told me of the anguish of being nationalistic and enjoying the domestic bliss of an American existence.
Well I told him… There is a price to pay for being a Beltway Bandit!
A government that runs according to favors and who you know, rather than a government that hires and promotes the most capable people, will generally not read well, remember well, or act well.
Joe
And that exactly what we have….
It is government of the gut, by the gut, for the gut – makes the Philippines a country in the gutters.
“I am keenly interested on how the Janitor fish responded to Ondoy. But it seems I have to deal now with how Homo sapiens responds to disasters.”-blackshama
There’s a whole world of difference: one is quite independent, the other over-dependent.
One of the differences between the janitor fish and the citizens of metro-Manila is this — the janitor-fish can’t pay to have a water-well dug in his backyard.
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By the way, the janitor-fish is reminder on the wisdom of cruelty to imported animals.
Janitor fish have an honest living unlike some river bank dwellers in San Miguel, Manila. They eat the crap we dump in the river. The one in San Miguel generates the crap we read in the papers.
The mention of the janitor fish is interesting.
When I revived a 30-gallon fresh-water aquarium in the old hometown, one strong recommendation from the petshop for repopulating the tank was the janitor fish, which I did. But I had not heard or known of it before.
An imported species?
And mine died quite quickly. An indication that its survivability is limited in cleaner environment?
Blackshama:
Everytime a rational flow of thoughts points to serious consequences – the Pinoy “resiliency” will take care of the disaster – just like resilient cockroaches.
Or Janitor fish! BTW this recent disaster saw conyos from gated communities on the rooftops shouting….. “OMG! Shet! (3x), the water’s up to the roof na!” The urban poor in those areas experience this yearly.
Since the conyos won’t want to be up on the roof again. Expect the elite controlled systems of governance to act on the problem.
You mean, blackshama, the ‘elite controlled systems of governance’ might try to demolish the Marikina River and transfer it to a relocation site? Omigosh!
Manila, unpopular Venice of Philippines. Mang Juan can then wait for the guava fruit to fall unto his face……
Yes, indeed, the Pinoy response to Ondoy continues to be a triumph of Pinoy resilience — even as all the destruction continues to be a howling reminder of government ineptitude and greed.
There are calls for a congressional inquiry into the causes of and responses to the disaster. I’m interested how a body that just shamelessly threw out the impeachment complaint against the Ombudsman while everybody was still reeling from the catastrophe would behave this time around.
Probably the same shameless way.
“No Prophet is recognized in his own country”, was the complaint of
Jesus Christ to his Jewish Brethren. Same way as Technical People who
warns the country of the path we are going are not heeded. They dont
produce Votes. Wowoowee Revillame and Pokwang are listened to, because they can entertain. And they can get votes for Politicians. Unless a disaster and tragedy strike us. We will not listen. After the disaster; when the dead are buried. The houses are rebuilt. We are back on our usual nonsense. Until the next disaster.
Some will argue that Christianity was a “… just a trivial voice in the wilderness” until an emperor saw its utility in getting better control over his empire. And them, Islam and the sword.
Organized Religions have given us:
1. Religious fundamentalism and radicalism.
2. Suicide Bombers. Criminals who kill, pillage and rape in the name of religions.
3. Inquisitions, like burning on the stake of Heretics.
4. Fire and brimstone scenarios that scare people.
5. Hell, purgatory, etc…
6. Female circumcisions, and degradation of females, including covering of female faces.
7. Jihadists, who are bent on converting everybody.
8. Holy Wars and Crusades.
9. Fake religious leaders who scam their followers
of their money. Including the right to vote.
What have this idiocy resulted? HUMAN SUFFERINGS!
Shama,
have you heard of the practice of applying liquid nitrogen to garbage then crushing it afterwards?
would it be cost effective and doable?
http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/letterstotheeditor/view/20091006-228587/A-way-to-end-the-garbage-problem
The process is too complicated, and expensive. One way to dispose it. Is to use it as a fuel for Power Generation. If
they can design good filters or can neutralize the harmful exhaust gases during the burning. It is viable.
Organic Waste Garbage can be used to create Methane Gas (CH4).
We import a lot of gas fuel from abroad. The gas fuel can be
made out of organic garbage. This will save import money. And
at the same time dispose the garbage. The solid waste products can be used as organic fertilizer.
Thanks Hyden!
been following your comments regarding the matter.
(including the Maya civilization)
(makes me curious and do more reading)
Filipinos apparently are not alone in insisting on building their homes “on the slopes of Vesuvius.”
At least 23 people were killed in the Messina town of Sicily after landslides hit the area. PM Berlusconi, just like here, blamed the heavy rainfall. The area, however, is known to be disaster prone and environmental groups are up in arms against the unregulated construction. Landslides regularly strike the area, with the last major one happening way back in 1908 (when it was thought the destruction was caused by an earthquake — actually it was an underwater landslide.)
Doracie’s FIVE MAJOR CONCLUSIONS as cited by subject-matter-expert, blackshame still cannot prescribe against the now emerging flood hazards of heavy rains, storms and typhoons that visit us.
Perhaps, there are really great other models to copy from quite aside from the mere social, cultural, or practical concerns that minds are ordinarily focused on.
In short, we probably still lack the pool of much-needed specialists or engineers to do the work.