Of Republicans, Off-year Elections, and Political Hierarchy
November 5th, 2009 by Nick
An off-year election often goes to the party that is not in The White House, so says the data, and so says the many major networks that covered Tuesday’s nationwide U.S. elections. Michael Bloomberg, the mega rich billionaire who financed his own campaign to the tune of $100 million barely came out alive and just beat his Republican opponent by a mere 5%. The incumbents across the board had it tough yesterday. If it weren’t for Bloomberg’s money, who knows where he would have ended up.
I just barely got off the plane, back in town, and this is the major news. The Republican party, despite its low public rating, seems to have had a great day on Tuesday. Both in Virginia and New Jersey, where President Barack Obama actively campaigned for the incumbents, both Democratic Party Governors still lost. Despite the losses, President Obama still maintains high ratings in both states, and was seen as not the main reason why voters did not vote for both Governors. Local issues played the bigger role in most cases.
I’m not sure exactly where this is all headed come 2010 in the midterm elections that should prove crucial for the direction of President Barack Obama’s agenda, and the overall makeup of Congress, but winning begets winning, and win The Republicans managed to do.
Michael Steele, the RNC Chairman has declared that it was a referendum on The Obama administration, it was a clear indication that the people are refusing a Health Care plan that they do not want, they are weary of Obama’s administration altogether. The data says otherwise, and in an off-year election, this was to be expected, but it must still be seen as a probable jumpstart to a Republican Party comeback.
Already in the midst of these losses, Harry Reid is expecting that the Health Care Bill may not be passed by the end of this year as planned by President Barack Obama. Even in that front, it seems The Republicans who have gone the way of attacks, but with little substance and without even their own proposed bill, is indeed going to be putting forward their own bill. It has not been made public as of yet, but from the drafts, it is only around 200+ pages long, as compared to the almost 2000+ pages inherent in the proposed Democratic Party’s Health Care Bill.
I’m going off track though, the most important thing to take away from this recent election is that we should never ever count any party down, especially when the economy is in such a rut. The recession may be officially over, but a jobless recovery in the eyes of Americans may as still be a recession. Without a growth in jobs, the party in power has all the disadvantages in the world.
Considering that exit polls both in Virginia and and New Jersey, the states where both Democratic and incumbent Governors lost, both showed numbers around 50-60% that President Obama did not play a factor, I have to wonder however, that it still leaves 40-50% going other routes and factoring Obama in, whether it was good or not. Substantial or not, in both races, where both governors received strong backing from President Obama, the President’s magic still had no effect. And that should be a bit worrisome for some strategists out there.
Will the machinery work for individuals other than a Barack Obama?
If The Democrats needed some good news from Tuesday’s dismal losses, it is that Sarah Palin’s ultra conservative bet for a congressional district in New York lost. This specific race actually garnered wide national attention, because it had an internal fight between a moderate Republican and a conservative Republican. The base of The Republican party did not like the stand of Dierdre Scozzafava, the moderate Republican, on abortion and same-sex marriage. Even former presidential candidate Fred Thompson a very conservative Republican came in just to stump for Doug Hoffman, the chosen nominee for The Conservatives.
Again, even in that race, where the Republicans were split, it seemed that the focus was still on jobs and local issues.
The main takeaway from the whole bunch of races that took place on Tuesday, is that at the end of the day, contentment breeds support, and discontentment breeds the straying away of voters. In this case, as many politicians have come to realize the hard way, it’s the economy stupid. All things being equal, the economy is the most tangible thing that connects with voters, money in the bank, job security, the list goes on and on. In the hierarchy of recent political needs, economy seems to be king. Democrats should be worried if come 2010, the economy still has not picked up. It could be 1994 all over again, and The Republicans may take The House once more.
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