The heat is just sweltering… broiling even.
And it isn’t just the fact that the mercury rose to 35.5 Celsius the other day.
The mudslinging on the political from have intensified to a most disgusting level with mounting accusations that a certain moneyed candidate has been trying to buy off his rivals with promises of ‘reimbursing’ their campaign expenses in exchange for their either drooping out pf the presidential derby and sliding down as senatorial candidate.
Mr. Manny Villar has emerged as the usual suspect in this puke-inducing show with the side character of Senator Ed Angara being tagged by Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile as the ‘messenger’.
The image many Filipinos are seeing is this:
Candidates to high elective office are now appreciated on two criteria.
Their VIABILITY at the polls, the chance of their bringing n the popular vote on the basis of qualifications, platform, and charisma (not necessary in that order),and their ‘BUYABILITY’ - their susceptibility to being bought out by rivals with absolutely no scruples.
These aspiring state leaders strut about with open devotion to dirty, money-driven tactics of traditional politics, more accurately nicknamed ’trapo’ (read wash cloth) politics.
There is even a subset of such ‘buyable’ politicians.
Those who seek elective office just for the FUND of it.
So which candidate are you for, the ‘viables’ or the ‘buyables’?
Popularity: 2% [?]
“Those who seek elective office just for the FUND of it…”
If there are traditional politicians (trapos), then there are the usual nuisance candidates: Eddie Gil, Ely Pamatong, etc.
So Ding, how would we explain their circumstances? Although its within their Constitutional rights, these people make a mockery of the election exercise, aspiring for the premier position at that.
Huh. Circus na nga, Mental Hospital pa. Priceless!
Phil this is almost like a chicken and egg conundrum.
Our voters have not matured because politicians are imprisoned in thought boxes that tell them it’s easoier to sing and dance while promising political ptronage if they are elected. No real vision.
Voters. in turn, see the campaigns as seasonal extra livelihood opportunities.
Somewhere in the cracks you have new politicians trying to offer real hope backed by commitment to do good and bring in reforms.
They are, sadly not given the chance because the surveys massage the public perceptions rather than give a true sense of the public pulse:
http://atmidfield.com/2010/02/23/mind-games-and-the-2010-elections/
Ding,
To blame the pollsters is definitely shooting the messenger. It is not their job to produce a result you like, but tally up the answers to the questions they pose and slice and dice them looking for meaning. I was personally impressed with the dramatic shift in Mindanao, from Villar to Estrada, which suggests the election is not over.
The culprit is the ineffective conglomeration of empowered opinon leaders, the Church, the Legislators, the Media, along with those who indeed know better, but do nothing.
Joe
i dont get this fear of polling either. lets try to speak plainly…
massage public perceptions to what end? r u saying someone is paying SWS and pulse asia to rig the surveys?
seriously?
since when did scientifically accomplished surveys ‘massage’ public opinion??? what ELSE can give a true sense of the public pulse than scientific surveys????
Dear Joe, Gabby and Nash (and Ding),
When Ding meant “massaging”, I think this is what he meant.
The pollsters simply count beans. While there may be ways to interpret the numbers and there are certainly ways to influence a count depending on how questions are asked and which households are polled, should we disabuse ourselves of conspiratorial theories, the numbers are nothing but beans counted.
A good deal of the massaging comes when the numbers are either not accepted by some or are deliberately spun to mean something else other than what they are.
One reason is deliberate. Another, an accident of ignorance. Both ways, the beans counted are massaged not by those counting (giving SWS and Pulse the benefit of the doubt until someone presents real evidence of guilt) but by those reading the results and interpreting these for the public.
As a businessman who uses these pollsters, we use them only for our own decision-making. In politics, they have an additional use. One is to solicit contributions, hence the interpretations one way or the other.
The other is to create a bandwagon for those who vote with the tide. Surveys were not designed for such ends, at least not for the apolitical bean counter.
The bandwagon motive is probably what we are talking about here. It is in this motive that the question of “shifts”, “trending”, etc, come in and to accomplish this, one result must be compatred with the others, either parallel runs or previous runs,
The comparison presumably should indicate a change. At least that is what those who would want to spin the results are hoping for.
And yet, when we review the manner and prose of the questions in each poll, we might find that each polling event is a “one off” instance and thus comparisons are really not that valid. A guava is not an apple. Although one might say that the former is greener than the latter. This is not the pollsters fault.
It is the fault of those who interpret the beans counted. Media, politicians, winners and losers and PR agents. Its the spin artist who is taking advantage of the information and twisting it into disinformation.
It takes more than just platforms and song and dance numbers to educate the public. It also takes educating them in the science of polling. I thought that statistics was a required course in college math.
But how many politicians reach college? : >
Dean
Pareng Ding,
“Just for the FUND of it” is pure genius. It’s Pera-pera ab initio for some. And they’ve made a career of it beacsue of the immaturity that you’ve described.
Pareng Phil,
The nuisance candidates should have been culled by the COMELEC but their criteria needs some fine-tuning or is probably fine-tuned in the wrong direction. A case in point is the off-once, on-again, off-twice candidacy of Vetiliano Acosta whose placement in the ballot nudges Benigno Aquino down the alphabetical list and thus slightly buries the latters name for those who are far-sighted.
Makes one think that the C in COMELEC stands for Carnival doesn’t it?
Dean
Dean,
It is no secret: a common practice is for these survey results to be peddled around by politicians handlers to entice donors to ante up and ‘invest’ in their principals.
Seems to me Barak Obama helped Hillary Clinton with her campaign debt.
Also seems to me that the latest poll shows that somehow Mindanao took a good swipe at Mr. Villar, in favor of Mr. Estrada, so all the money in the world may not help him, and the condition you witness may be the panic of a desperate man. Or do you figure Mr. Estrada can be bought? ahahahahahaha Or wants to be senator.
I say lead Mr. Moneybags on so he spends all his dough, for the good of the economy, then dump him in May. Conniving cuts two ways.
Joe
Gibo won’t be in Congress (except as lobbyist and friendly visitor) should he lose, right?
Same with NoyNoy when he loses — he won’t be a senator at all when he loses, right?
Same with Villar, right? And Erap retires (or maybe make an autobiography movie which includes the damage to Pinas brought by
“surge-the-gates”jueteng.)It is now getting ugly now for the candidates. Watch for more ugliness to come. They will wrestle in the Mud. Politics in the Philippines is
Mudwrestling, not mudslinging.
Dear Equalizer,
In mudwrestling ( you will find the best pits in the Burgos Street district off Makati Avenue, a short but very interesting walk from Buendia and the Makati Business District), the most anticipated event is when bystanders hose off the mud from the bodies of the wrestlers and what’s been previously coated with mud pops out.
In the mudwrestling we see in politics, those hosing down events rarely do not occur so nothing is really revealed save for increasing coats of mud.
Dean
Duwag naman yang si Dick Gordon. He should name the emissary. Ginamit pa mga anak niya na props “he made the offer in front of my children”. Dick Gordon should just man up.
Otherwise, mukha siyang katawa-tawa at parang Chiz Escudero na hanggang daldal lang.
Nash,
Gordon resorts to the same antics while debating in the Senate.
Dean
Joe,
I’ve been trying to bite my tongue but you re absolutely wrong.
Aralin mo.
Wouldn’t be the first time.
Put a Band Aid on it . . .
heh
Joe
Did you even read the studies I linked to?
The problems cited stem from the very findings in the methodology of survey firms in YOUR country Joe.
It would be wrong to discard as worthless the results from the latest Pulse or SWS surveys. The instruments may be defective, but the results still contain information.
No different than with reported design problems and unforeseen acceleration problems with 2009 and 2009 Toyotas. Yes, the value of a 2009 6-cyl Camry may have dropped in value, but not to zero.
Dear UPNNGrad,
The Camry design problems were not deliberate. And they are not subject to interpretation.
But I agree with you on the value of polling. It’s not zero.
Dean
Ding,
One can find problems everywhere, even in the church. My point is that survey methodology is scientific, and the best way to get readings on things. There are all kinds of biases, for sure, but it is preferable to guessing. Which is why political parties commission their own surveys; not to spin them necessarily, but to help figure out how to win.
If they can spin them to win, of course they will . . .
They are politicians.
Joe
you can’t do telephone surveys in a country with very low number of landlines since that is not representative of the population
If not mistaken there are 40 million cps.
I just want to check out the authenticity of an email circulating around about an alleged home mortgage scam involving the resale of mortgages by mass housing developers to government financial institutions. The email names a certain Tony Hidalgo as the person who allegedly wrote the description of the scam, having known intimately the details while serving as executive of HUDCC, the agency that regulates mass housing. It was alleged that the scam involved some P42 billion and consisted of overvalued or even fictitious mortgage papers. Hidalgo’s alleged note in the email says: “This drew the attention of the World Bank and the Dept. of Finance, for the SSS, GSIS, and Pag-Ibig Funds are retirement funds. The funds are commtted to future retirement obligations to the contributing members. If the housing mess continued, the SSS, GSIS, and Pag-Ibig would default on its retirement obligations, creating a financial crisis for the country. All of us who changed the housing program to give the control over their housing funds back to the SSS, GSIS, and Pag-Ibig, who would be more careful in screening mortgages to make sure they would be paid for they would bear the penalties of mortgage defaults — we were all harrassed by V—– (censored) and his minions in the CREBA who slapped law suits on us and attacked us in the radio, TV, newspapers, etc. The Makati regional trial court found in our favor and threw out the CREBA-V—– (censored) law suit.” The note finally concluded that scheme was allegedly placed under stricter controls and preventive what could have been a financial meltdown similar to what happened in the US.