Yesterday I had the occasion of attending the talk “How Much Reforms are there in the 2010 Campaigns?” organized by the Ateneo School of Government. Discussants present were Joel Rocamora of the Institute of Popular Democracy and Ramon Casiple of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform. Allow me to echo the gist of the discussion.
Is Noynoy the Reform Candidate?
Rocamora was clearly partisan and really only spoke of the Aquino platform.
He speaks of a Reform Constituency that has been brewing in the past two or three years. This ragtag group was energized by the massive turnout of people at Cory’s funeral and the consequent decision of Noynoy to run for the presidency.
Rocamora asseses the “reform” elements of the Aquino platform. He argues that there are enough reformers among the inner circle of the Aquino campaign. These include former senior government officials such as Butch Abad, Johnny Santos, Dinky Soliman and Chito Gascon. He claims that every single one has serious reform credentials. However Rocamora acknowledges that there are also non-reformers among the ranks, attracted by the huge Aquino lead in the early surveys. As a result, there is a struggle within the campaign but “so far, it is the reformers who have managed to run the campaign because of the absolute support of Noynoy and Mar.”
Rocamora groups the reform measures under two broad rubrics – “Anti Rent-seeking reforms” and “Redistributive reforms.”
The anti rent-seeking reforms are meant to curb corruption, allow the leveling of the playing field in business by reforming the regulatory system running the economy and strengthen the capacity of government to provide infrastructure by removing patronage in the allocation processes.
Now why is the majority of the reform measures unveiled so far in the economic sphere? Rocamora proffers an answer – a big chunk of Noynoy’s supporters are in the business sector. Those present at the pow-wow last week were not only MBC members but also managers (Management Association of the Philippines) and finance people (FINEX). Rocamora recounts a chiding he got from former NatDem comrades – Is this, finally, the “reform bourgeoisie” a-coming? “Hey, you’ve been looking for a national bourgeoisie for forty years,” he replied. Indeed, half a century late, in my opinion. But better late than never.
The second umbrella of reforms are meant to be ‘redistributive.’ The Aquino platform is strong in the support for urban land reform. It seems I have read accurately between the lines of his Economic Vision speech as Rocamora acknowledges that “Agrarian Reform is one of the vulnerabilities of the campaign, in particular of Noynoy, because he has not yet figured out how to deal with Hacienda Luisita.”
Reformers must trump those who would hold the Status Quo
Rocamora describes a campaign team with different clusters of reformers. The clusters are charged with different issue areas and are tasked to translate policy papers into speeches. We can expect such speeches to be delivered in the coming months.
In conclusion, Rocamora expresses his concern not for the prospects of reform but what an Aquino administration might face once it is in power. He is not confident that reformers will get the majority of the Congress (both the lower House and Senate). This will make it difficult to pass reform measures initiated by the Executive.
An Aquino-Villar Contest
The second discussant, Mon Casiple, concludes that the presidential race is really only between two contenders at this point.
With regard to platforms, Casiple is circumspect. He says “these are statements of intentions designed to attract the greatest number of votes.” A platform is not a program of government – which will not be unveiled until after a candidate wins. On the other hand, he acknowledges, a platform cannot be all that different from the nitty-gritty of governance.
What Casiple advises us to do in the coming months is to listen to these platforms carefully and to “read between the lines.” While ALL platforms look to be “reformist”, there are nuances. He cites the difference between Aquino and Villar is that the former explicitly calls the Arroyo administration “corrupt” while Villar blames the “corrupt system.” Aquino has also categorically said he will not raise taxes while Villar leaves the possibility of raising them.
Casiple advises voters to deal with the record of these candidates and the “circumstances of their way to the presidency.” Here I suppose he means for us to judge whether these politicians have played fairly to win the prize.
Non-conventional Campaigns
Casiple proposes that the 2007 elections opened the field for non-conventional campaigns of non-conventional politicians. Fr. Ed Panlilio and Grace Padaca came completely from left field but won governorships against conventional wisdom. Casiple acknowledges that the Noynoy campaign is also a non-conventional one. It has so far swept aside Mar Roxas, Noli de Castro and Chiz Escudero. He hints at Joseph Estrada throwing in the towel as well.
Casiple concludes by saying the reform agenda, at this point, is not a laundry list of policy initiatives. It is “more about symbols” and a negotiation of what we mean by “reform.” He says what we know at this time is that we are rejecting the status quo. I take this to mean we are rejecting nine years of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
Popularity: 1% [?]
“Those present at the pow-wow last week were not only MBC members but also managers (Management Association of the Philippines) and finance people (FINEX).”
Ano pa nga ba? They’re there to status-iate the status quo…
As long as Noynoy can keep himself clean, prevents his kamag-anaks from indulging in government hanky-panky, minimizes corruptions in all government levels, and apply justice fairly and effectively, then I believe we are going to be off to a good start.
What I mean is that Noynoy ought not to do a GMA (change mind and attitude) when he starts sitting there on the throne in the Palace by the Pasig River. But who knows.
On the other hand, if Villar changes his mind and attitude if he’s the one to sit on that throne, then I guess we’ll be off to a good start as well.
Well, Erap? I don’t know whether he has learned his lessons well so dunno if we”ll be off to a good finish with him :D.
What about Gibo? He’s impressed with GMA’s kind of governance so I guess it’s going to be more of the same…the status quo.
Can he change? Will he change? I doubt…unless there is a divine intervention
See? Noynoy do a GMA? Now even you have doubts. But let me reiterate. Gloria did not change upon assuming office. She was like that already. All the corruption you see today, it was already being planned before and while she was VP. All these sorts of corruption also take time to plan and execute. The idea that GMA changed and became corrupt while in office is a naive assertion. That’s why if you suddenly see Noynoy change, it’s not because he changed. That was all planned – even today while he does not sit in the presidency. And it will be the people’s fault for voting them in. Stop putting all the blame on the politicians when the people themselves have a share of the responsibility.
Chino F, you are lucky to be able to see what’s planned in people’s mind. Is clairvoyance a common anti-pinoy trait? Me, I only see evil things done when it’s done.
I don’t need clairvoyance. This is just common sense.
Joel Rocamora’s a paid hack :) My professor, already told me long before(late last year)that he’s the one who is constructing Nonoy’s platform. So for him to evaluate Nonoy’s plans, platform ,and more importantly these reforms hardly convinces me of anything(though some may prove to be plausible yet still lacking in specifics of How-to’s, he did formulate some if not all). Not to mention, identifying ‘the real’reformist from their party would seem counter-intuitive knowing what I know.
while as far as Casiple goes, Benign0 would eat him alive ;p ” A platform is not a program of government – which will not be unveiled until after a candidate wins.” even if he acknowledges the similarities of ‘nitty-gritty governance’po. :)
Which is why I said Rocamora is clearly partisan.
Yep I saw it po, paid hacks seems to be a trend(concept,topic,accusation) here and elsewhere, Even in the articles. which is why I still bothered mentioning it.:)
Off topic po. Sparks would you miss Bengin0 here in FV? been following what has happened, and from the looks of it, the reforms here might be more detrimental than good. Can I say “reform the reformist”?
lol, i don’t know what’s goin on honestly. we dont have regular meetings about these things.
So much for ‘a Benig0 state of mind’…that was a great read! thanks!more power!
Ay, sabi po ni rocamera, it will boil down to noynoy-villar? Di po puedeng magsalita ng patapos, wala pa ang eleksyon. Puro survey-survey pa lang ngayon, puedeng mag iba sa huli. And i’m afraid of dis kind of talk, its either manny or noynoy, or noynoy and erap. Parang good and evil nanaman ginagamit na sales talk. Luma na pong stayl yan, dapat ibang diskarte na. Kahit pang lesser evil, di ubra si noynoy sakin. Parang panloloko sa taong bayan ang good vs. evil na ito, eh pare-pareho halos lahat ng kilalang kandidato. Parang wala nang mapagpipilian, kahit si noynoy, kasama na diyan. Parang no other reason ang ginagamit ng oposisyon except to kick out GMA, eh hate politics naman yun. Haaay, walang pagbabago bansa natin sa ganyan.
Noynoy Aquino did nothing to reform the Philippines as a Senator.
Would you try to convince me, he can reform the Philippines as President?
His records as Senator speak for themselves. He was a passive
Senator.
well, too bad there are only 8 people to choose from and only three that really matter aquino, villar, and erap.
you can leave your choice for president blank is one option.
(3rd attempt) The following sentence won’t mean much to the FilpnoVoices folks who only care about who is the better candidate. This blog comment is about vote-counts and winning. The sentence – “NoyNoy is vulnerable, quite vulnerable.”
NoyNoy’s risk is with the masa — class-D and class-E. Thus, to me, NoyNoy’s risk is coming from Erap. I don’t have any source for this one, but I am guessing that 8% to 12% of that NoyNoy 40% is from class-D/E. Maybe higher if Pinas classes-D/E are super-emo. To me, that support is shallow. The sentiment is for Cory. Evidence — no one was even thinking of a presidentiable-NoyNoy until 3 days after Cory died. Since the support is from Cory’s death, then when the masa during coming weeks shifts to thinking politics/economics away from pakikiramay, pressure is put onto that 40% number. Will the classes-D/E begin to wonder about NoyNoy as elitista —” …a big chunk of Noynoy’s supporters are in the business sector”, sparks noted. When the masa hear that line as they get courted again by Erap-para-sa-mahirap, NoyNoy survey-40% is at high risk. Maybe NoyNoy can hang onto the urban class-E if it were true that …The Aquino platform is strong in the support for urban land reform. Villar has a claim to urban-poor, too — this local-boy-from-Tondo. For the rural-masa where NoyNoy has said little, sparks did note about the risk to NoyNoy — Hacienda Luisita and “Erap-para-sa-mahirap”.
And then, there is this — NoyNoy folks should worry that even the middle-class does not belong to Noy. The reason is Villar. While C5 is an albatross, isn’t Villar the only one with a special claim to the OFW-sector? It may be unclear what Villar has done for them and it may be unclear what Villar will do special for them, but Villar remains the presidentiable who has a claim to the OFW sector.
OFW’s — 8 million strong, and you have to double that to 16 million (practically all voting age) once you add spouses and adult dependents left in Pilipinas. Villar. OFW’s. The question — What has NoyNoy done? — obviously also resonates into “What has Noy done for OFW’s?”
It doesn’t matter NoyNoy as better candidate if NoyNoy doesn’t win Malacanang, does it?
Why didn’t NoyNoy listen to benign0 from months ago when benign0 kept heckling — Where’s the beef? What do you offer, NoyNoy? Where’s your platform???? Maybe NoyNoy did not give a platform, it would have helped had NoyNoy gave an answer to the masa asking “What’s in it for me?” How do you help me? Wasn’t that the question from the woman NoyNoy mentioned in his speech to Makati Business Club?
They have to fire quickly whoever has convinced the NoyNoy campaign to wait for the official opening of campaign period before showing what NoyNoy promises to do for the OFW’s different from GMA and different from Villar. The Villar team should continue pounding the message into the OFW sector — “Villar is the one, NoyNoy hasn’t even been thinking of OFW’s; Villar is the one who has always been thinking of how to help the OFW’s” while Erap continues to romance the masa with his “Erap-para-sa-mahirap” serenade (and Gibo courts the machinery — the candidates for local offices — with road-funds / infrastructure assistance with his “…will continue GMA economic programs” message).
NoyNoy, favored by the elite, may be leading in surveys of 4 weeks ago, but it wouldn’t surprise me if NoyNoy does not get Malacanang. This is my opinion. Maybe come June2010, the NoyNoyistas do wake up to see that their age has come!!! But they are not helping their cause any if they continue hoity-toity sniping at those whose support NoyNoy needs.
eerrrrr…. who is benign0 to Noynoy?
and what is benignO’s ‘platform plez’ to class class d,e,f,’h, g?
“I don’t have any source for this one, but I am guessing that 8% to 12% of that NoyNoy 40% is from class-D/E”
Oh? Why not 7% to 13%?
Why not 6.31% to 19.7%
Only hindsight will say which guesstimate was correct.