Malacanang is trying to keep its chin up but the indicators about the state of relation between Manila and Beijing are painting a different picture.
Beijing has not only sent its biggest naval trawler to tighten ‘fishing patrols ‘ in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
Now it has abruptly cancelled the visit of a ranking official of its National People’s Congress, the functioning legislature.
China also appears to be ignoring Malacanang’s expressed position that the new Philippine Baselines Law is no big deal and should properly be taken up within the dispute resolution frameworks of the United Nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
News reports are saying that the latest developments herald one thing: a reignition of the Spratlys dispute.
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-03-17-voa15.cfm
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There is more to gain by talking, than by shooting.
c.d.e.
The challenge is for China to be able it assert it claim without resorting the violence.
Ding, that challenge is too easy for the Chinese. The Art of War came from them in the first place.
peste,
Mismo.
China’s previous skirmishes with Vietnam attest to a readiness by Beijing to draw from Sun Tzu’s primer, but we are in the era where China is a major player in the global market.
That it is a permanent member of the UN Security Council should weigh in when the matter of sorting out this reignition of the Spratlys dispute is put before the world body and the ASEAN.
Distance from the Kalayaan island is the reason China is not fully asserting its claim. Not even the long range Su-27 fighters can give air support to any of the existing Chinese installations. It needs an aircraft carrier or air strip in one of the islands to do that. China is buying time. And the Philippines should use that to set up a respectable air force to defend KI. It can even demolish the structure on Mischief reef now without retaliation from China.
China is testing USA regarding the control of China sea. The incident with the US survey ship Impeccable is part of testing Obama on what he will do regarding the Spratly’s. That is also the reason why Obama called GMA, to talk to her about the VFA.
That’s plausible.
One thing Im waiting for is when the Congressional committee on Capitol Hilll are fully active and begin really weighing in on foreign policy.
Thus far Obama has telegraphed that in our part of the world, Indonesia and the could be his jump-off points but I guess he knows the Philippines is set to have elections in 13 months so he’s in a holding pattern with GMA.
Ishmael,
Aha! We share the same opinion on why Obama called GMA. However in our part of the world, the call is being pathetically used as circumstantial evidence of some backdoor negotiation in some rape case.
Supremo,
You seem to forget the missiles and subs.
Also, the way to demolish structures there is to not brag about it.
peste,
You seem to forget that the waters around Kalayaan are too shallow for subs. What missiles are you talking about? China will not launch missiles towards the Philippines. Chinese missiles are too inaccurate without any guidance from either satellites or ground radar. Also, the AFP used to demolish Chinese structures in KI until the US asked it to stop.
I also know about the demolitions. And it’s rather disappointing that civilians like us could know about it rather easily.
I think I get it now on what kind of retaliation scenario you are painting. With the what I know of how the demolition was done before, retaliation for that wouldn’t really need missiles at all. Just good intel and perfectly timed positioning of troops. Whatever, it’s rather ridiculous to waste lives this way.
peste,
Laway is the only retaliation that China can make in case the Philippines demolish the Mischief structure. I stand by it.
Okay then. They’ll build a new one anyway. Perhaps, it’s a good way for our guys to practice demolition skills while they practice construction skills. LOL.
Peste,
Yes it is being used as evidence to show that the US is negotiating to keep Smith out of Philippine prison. It is another of those conspiracy theories that some groups are cooking up.
I believe that the US’ problem with China is more pressing than the Daniel Smith issue. USA will, as much as possible, want to rein in China. Letting China do whatever it pleases might affect the precarious balance that exist in Asia. If China got bolder, then N. Korea might get bolder too.