The Filipino everyman is putting on his ‘pundit-cum-statistics analyst hat’ today poring through the banner news reports on the latest Pulse Asia survey that says
“…if the May 2010 elections were held now, one in four Filipinos (25%) would elect Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. as the country’s next president. In second place are former President Joseph Estrada (19%) and Vice-President Noli L. de Castro (16%). Meanwhile, Senators Francis G. Escudero and Manuel A. Roxas II also score double-digit presidential voter preferences (12% and 11%, respectively).”
Quite informatively, Pulse Asia reminds us of the socio-political backdrop of the survey:
Among the major developments immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey were the prolonged hospitalization due to terminal illness and subsequent death of President Corazon Cojuangco Aquino; the last State of the Nation Address (SONA) of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her latest visit to the United States (US); the unexplained growth in the President’s wealth since assuming the presidency in 2001; the increasing number of probable presidential candidates for the May 2010 elections; the controversies surrounding the selection of two new members of the Supreme Court and this year’s National Artist awardees; and the loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure caused by two powerful typhoons. On the economic front, inflation in July fell to a twenty-two year low.
The survey goes on to narrate what thoughts motivate Filipinos about which camndidate they favour:
About one in four Filipinos (25%) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s many accomplishments. On the other hand, one in five (20%) Filipinos rationalized their choice of candidate based on the preferred bet’s pro-poor orientation. More than one in ten (12%) cited the candidate’s being helpful to others, especially OFWs (8%), as the reason for supporting a candidate’s presidential bid. Other reasons cited in supporting a candidate’s bid is his/her not being corrupt (6%), proven capability in governance (4%), goodness (4%), being principled (3% ), and intelligence (3%).
So now I’m asking myself, given that I wasn’t one of those surveyed, if I share the findings.
Yes, and no.
That’s Because surveys such are these are dipsticks prone to misuse in terms of ‘massaging’ the message: of candidates looking to improve their ratings shaping their message to what voters want to hear, not based on what the wannabees’ genuine vision and platforms of government are in a post-Arroyo government
But I’m not saying we should dismiss the data, especially in relation to what it may be telling us.
My humble reading is this:
1. Sen. Jamby Madreigal has become the best campaigner for Sen. Villar instead of being his nemesis over the C-5 road mess;.
Villar’s no-talk-no-mistake strategy is working, with the masses more appreciative of such gestures as giving away houses during a noontime TV show, and having a notoriously crass but hugely popular TV host being his vote-getter.
2. Former President Erap Estrada appears to have given Filipinos amnesia about his conviction on plunder charges, never mind that he pocketed illegal gambling bribes
3. Vice President Noli De Castro’s continuing support for Arroyo is making people rethink their image of him as a crusading journalist fit for high high office;
4. Support for Sen. Chiz Escudero is in a holding pattern given the nasty talks about him courting the administration’s support and his political god-father’s known good relations with Malacanang;
5. Sen. Mar Roxas’s initial surge as a desired wannabee appears to have plateaued with even voters in Metro Manilla, and his natural constituency in the Visayas not listing him as their number 1 pick.
Going into the next quarter survey, Roxas’s ill-conceived ‘de-padyak’ and ‘re-resbak tayo’ messaging could be drowned out by a civil society-initiated signature gathering campaign aimed at convincing Sen. Noynoy Aquino to run for President.
Villar, while enjoying a survey lead that could translate into a winning plurality, could be peaking early.
Estrada’s sustained gain mat solidify the backroom planning by parties unseen to question his bid’s legal standin (if and he does file).
For me. in the final analysis Filipino voters have two simple parameters when they listen, and repose belief in any candidate’s promises absent a full understanding of his vision and platform.
Are the wannabee’s promises plausible?
If it’s plausible, IS IT TANGIBLE?
Then the voter casts his ballot.
Popularity: 1% [?]
Right.
You speak of a “final analysis”, Ding, but then this simply begs the question:
What is there to “analyse”?
Look here and you will find that there is NOTHING.
So how does one evaluates whether a “wannabee’s promises” are “plausible” or “tangible” when there are no clear promises to begin with.
Rather than try to analyse something that is NON-EXISTENT why not just focus on the real challenge that our bozo-cum-politicians need to step up to to prove how serious they really are:
Platform, plez™.
Unless the above challenge is convincingly met, all other attempts at “analysis” simply come across as vacuous drivel.
Not having a platform is no excuse because it can be done in four easy steps.
Whether it is Edu Manzano or Vic Pacia, Erap or Mar. Whatever. If we as voters behave like a bunch of starstruck ignoramuses all the time, guess what: We get ignoramurases leading us as well.
It’s simple, really™ — though not for the small-minded.
villar responded well (by shutting up) with the c5 controversy. sorry na lang kay jamby.
erap, well, once again, pinatunayan ng pinoy na madali silang magpatawad (o makalimot) sa mga kamaliang ginagawa ng mga lider ng bansa.
sorry for mar, his act with korina didn’t improve his appeal.
situation, as of the moment, is still very liquid. i think one of the important turn around would be if erap is still allowed to run for president.
Dean dela Paz has pointed to an angle that people probably should jump on immediately. What Dean de la Paz said (which if you think about it makes sense) there are people around Mar Roxas who are guiding and shaping the guy in terms of making the guy more attractive to voters as well as shaping his platforms (definition of and approaches to problems ).
So an important question now is —- who are the people (military- and business-leaders? that surround the presidentiables?
Political Surveys can be manipulated to initiate the Bandwagon
Political Mentality. The fence sitter Noli de Castro was once at
the top. Now, it is the billion pesos man, Manny Villar. The fellow
even refuses to discuss with the voters his political plans and
agendas. He goes around the country with show biz personalities.
He has no platform, or any programs for solutions to our problems.
These Politicians hold the political agendas thru these gimmicks. To
SIDESTEP the real Political Issues of the country. We, the Voters,
should hold the Political Agendas. Not them.
It is like a Snake Oil Salesman Scammer, confusing a probable scam victim . To easily scam him. When will we ever learn from our mistakes.
It is incredible to me, a guy from a country that tried to impeach its president for a little private sexual peccadillo, that Filipinos will give ANY credence to people who have stolen so blatantly from the peoples’ wallet. Where are the drug smugglers, gun runners and peddlers of adolescent girls? Shouldn’t they be on the list of presidentiables, too?
Joe
Anybody can be elected in the Philippines…all you do is
scam people. Look at those Filipinos giving money to OFW recruiter scammers; promising Jobs Overseas. Politicians can promise the: moon, stars, heaven, mother goose, lady luck, etc…then the elected people show their real colors after election. They turn out to be bad characters and we find ourselves in Hell.
and the funny thing is…after so many many years of being fooled by these promises…the Filipino people still put their trusts to these liars!!!!
we even talk about them in this forum
well well well….the bright boys of the Philippines…the intelligent minds of FV….
puro kayo mga bulok!!!! pinaguusapan nyo pa din ang mga politikong walang nagagawang kabutihan sa bansa natin????? ah yeah…gusto nyo lang ipamalas na matatalino at magagaling kayong magsulat…
MGA POLITIKO ANG PUMAPATAY SA BANSA NATIN AT MAMAYANG PILIPINO!!!
kala ko mga matatalino kayo…pero bakit di nyo yan maarok?
o di kaya…mga nagpapangap lang kayo…at ang totoo ay mga BULOK kayong lahat!!!!
The tragedy of our times; is not the USELESS Noises of the
Bad People. But the SILENCE and APATHY of the Good People.
It is better to light a candle; than curse the darkness.
THe good people must have a very good reason why they opt to be silent and no longer participate in all the bruhaha going on in politics. In edsa 1, the good people fought, a lot of them died…and what happened after putting a good fight? who won? obviously the good people didnt win, the filipino didnt win…THE INCOMPETENT AND CORRUPT POLITICIANS DID. Although unlike marcos, these politicians didnt literaly shoot people to kill them…but they are killing people just the same.
Among the possible presidentiables right now…who among them have actually done something that changed the country for the better? who among them have done something to change the lives of the Filipino people for the better? No one…and these people have been playing the game of politics for so manay years now…AND WE STILL BELIEVE EVERY LIE THEY SAY!!!!!!!
SSS and GSIS…social security for the workers…but where is the security???? in other countries, if you get terminated from your job, you are paid a certain amount per year of service…mazimum of two years. In the Philippines, if you get terminated, you are no longer allowed to borrow from the money that you contributed for the number of years that you worked. What about health insurance? Philhealth, how much do we get from it? roughly 500 php per month, not even enough to buy a 1 month supply of multivitamins…etc etc etc etc…
we keep on paying our taxes..and what do we get in return?????
“THe good people must have a very good reason why they opt to be silent and no longer participate in all the bruhaha going on in politics. In edsa 1, the good people fought, a lot of them died…and what happened after putting a good fight? who won? obviously the good people didnt win, the filipino didnt win…THE INCOMPETENT AND CORRUPT POLITICIANS DID. Although unlike marcos, these politicians didnt literaly shoot people to kill them…but they are killing people just the same.” – Juwan_D
Exactly my thoughts! I was one of the many who braved tear gas, water cannons, truncheons, sometimes bullets during Marcos’ times. Yet after we ‘won’ what happened?
sinong manok mo, Juwan_D?
For the past elections..lagi ko nilalagay sa balota ang pangalan ko..baka nitong election bert, pangalan mo ang ilalgay ko hehehe
When I still have that faith in the Filipino people I wrote In “Termites From Within”:
“ x x x But local as well as national elections are oftentimes considered national pastimes and a great vaudeville to watch. Every candidate has the recipe on how to achieve peace, security and economic boom that every Filipino only dreams about. Election is both an unrestrained merrymaking and a ghastly and horrific bloodbath. Three dozen or so deaths from the warring political factions would serve as a backdrop of this supposed wholesome democratic exercise, but unlike the stage players in a real vaudeville where the participants get up as the drapes are drawn, some players in this political vaudeville never get the chance to rise. Every election reminds us of a joke about a politician who died and was given the option at the pearly gates to choose between heaven and hell. The gatekeeper escorted the politician to hell and was told to stay there for one day and another day in heaven so he could make an intelligent decision of where to stay. In hell he saw most of his friends playing golf in daintily manicured lawns, caressing beautiful masseurs in exotic spas, others were dining in the best restaurants in abundant food supply and some were singing gleefully and reckless cheer. One day in hell was over and he was escorted to heaven. He saw people happy. Food was in abundance too, people were singing with joy, spas and golf courses were there too, but there was none of his friends. So the politician told the gatekeeper when his day was up that while heaven was good, hell was better because his friends were there. So the gatekeeper escorted him back to hell but when he reached hell he saw tons of suffocating garbage and his friends scavenging it for food; no golf courses, streets were dark and dirty. Vexed with inconsolable horror, the politician told his escort, It was not like this yesterday! The gatekeeper said: “The other day was a campaign period. Today you have voted”.
The greatness of the Filipinos as a race lies not with the fact that it can carry its misery and burden eternally, but in its ability to put this misery off its shoulder once in a while and give one hilarious laugh.
So the question of whether the Filipinos are worth dying for is a rhetorical question. Yes they are because they can laugh their misery off and believe in the justness of the Gatekeeper who makes sure that the politicians and their friends are in Hell.
I’m disturbed by two things that Pulse Asia survey says. 1) “virtually every Filipino” has a candidate. 2) Filipinos are looking at socialist and pro-poor candidates.
What did Mar in is the funeral of Mrs Aquino. He should read the writing on the wall.
As for Erap, before he thinks he can run, he better shave off his “bigote” since the demolition job experts say that was the one that ordered the murder of Dacer and his chauffeur. As of now his alibi is laughable.
I do believe that the Palace’s demolition of Estrada will be the final solution to the Erap question. It was for Ping!
This survey is only worth even glancing at because this country is dumb enough to have omitted a provision for a run-off in multi-candidate elections from the Constitution. So another president will get elected with around 40% of the vote, the majority of the population will end up hating him/her, and everyone will wonder why this seems to keep happening.
Indonesia learned from our mistake which is why they have run-offs. [h/t mlq3]
Good for Indonesia. When will the Philippines learn from their own mistake?
If we had better political parties, then election day would be down to 1 to 3 people because they’ve already been tested by their respective parties. So in effect, Election Day is the run off.
Ben K, the objection to an electoral run-off that i often hear is its cost which tells me that the person making such an objection hasn’t factored in the cost of an unclear mandate.
Cocoy, are you saying that having one candidate running during election day is the best?
I agree with you. It’s more a matter of addressing long-term consequences. Certainly cost in time and money is a practical consideration, but practical problems usually always have practical solutions. It’s not a good enough reason to forego a runoff procedure.
cvj,
Let us assume that our Political Parties are actually made up of real people. That a lot of Filipinos can join a political party and that a Convention by the party is actively participated by its membership, ergo the winner of the race is just one candidate. So for example, Lakas will field one candidate. the LP and NP will field their candidate. Erap’s party will field a candidate… then instead of having six or seven people, we’ll have only 4 at the most— the final ballot will mean the general public gets to give the candidate a majority.
In a darwinian way, we can also weed out parties that are not supported by people, ergo maybe one day, we’ll have as much as three viable parties.
Cocoy, even if there are only 3 or 4 candidates, it will still need a run-off if the topnotcher does not get an outright majority.
CVJ,BENK
You convinced me of the merits of the runoff elections,now we need charter amendments.(that is the only way for runoffs to happen and one way to learn from our mistakes)
Karl, i’m agreeable to amending the Constitution to make way for run-off elections.
Ding, Ben K,
It was pointed to me
outearlier by Manolo Quezon that there seems to be a discrepancy between the recent results and and the result Pulse published last Feb. Is our electorate’s taste changing or where the questions framed differently?Since they were both conducted by Pulse Asia, I would guess that essentially the same survey was used (that would be the logical thing to do), and that the results represent a shift. But unless someone actually has access to the two surveys, there is no way to know that for sure.
Given the capriciousness of public opinion, however, I would not be surprised if it really was just a matter of people changing their minds. Rather than what they are thinking at the moment, I think everyone should be paying more attention to figuring out why they think what they do.
Saw that, too, coy.
I can only surmise that when the numbers were further crunched certain other conflicting nuances came out.
But I can only guess without adding any malice…
Chiz Escudero for President? Think again
Wherever he goes in the countryside, Escudero does nothing but impress people with his skillfulness in using powerful and effective language be it in Pilipino or in English. I guess the boyish looks of this young gentleman from the 1st District of Sorsogon makes him more mesmerizing. Like, how can someone who looks like a boy speak the way he does? Simply amazing.
But something is wrong with Escudero. Too bad because he has the potentials of becoming the country’s answer to Barack Obama.
Escudero’s position in every national issue is a turnoff, and I now suspect that he is not a patriot or his patriotism is misplaced because of too much ambition to become President of this Republic…
His stand also reminds me that he is an Estrada boy or a remnants of Marcos crony and that he has been consistent in taking the cudgels for one of the biggest plunder suspects this country has ever known since Ferdinand Marcos. Escudero is the mouthpiece of the enemy of Edsa Dos.
The fact alone that Escudero is closely associated with Estrada does not speak well of his values and makes his motives suspect. Therefore, I cannot trust him.
To hell with his eloquence! With people like Escudero in Malacanang, who needs a President?
Pastilan.
Please forward this to all your friends in the Philippines
Although there’s a strong chance that Villar will prevail in 2010, I highly doubt he’ll be able to stay in power. As anyone with more than 2 brain cells know, the Philippines is, in reality, ruled by the military. Sure, it has many factions but it rears its head when it feels threatened and there’s an opportunity. Edsa I and II were military coups. Sure, there’s a “people power” facade, but its operative core was a military coup.
Unless Villar give the military some assurances, his hold on power may be tenuous at best. I find it particularly lamentable how Cory was lionized recently as the vanguard of democracy in the Philippines. If you look at the circumstances behind her rise and the actual operation of her administration, you’d realize that she struck a Faustian bargain with the military. It took a while to get, 8 or 9 coups tend to do that, but at the end a new post-Marcos order was established. GMA knows how to play the game. Does Villar?
I think it would be smart of Villar to read up on what happened to Thailand’s Thaksin Shaniwatra… Any real leader that wants genuine reform has to confront military elephant sitting in the room (that everyone refuses to acknowledge). Who will have the guts to reform the military? Who will have the guts to stand up to the monopolists and reform the economy?