This is where we’re stuck today: The Philippine economy is not growing enough to create surplus not only to provide and hold economic safety nets but also pay for certain essential infrastructure, physical and social, such as a meaningful program for a high-quality universal education in order to produce a large population geared up for a modern economy and an enlightened citizenry, the essential ingredient for a working democracy.

Creating the good society that democracy aims to pull off often involves a decision to conserve long-held beliefs, values, traditions and institutions, or, otherwise, revolutionize them. Whether to undergo transformation or not, it could be driven either by fear of a change for the worse or by hope for the better. Those with something or so much to lose will most likely lean toward conservatism and those with little or nothing to lose but their blighted station will veer toward radicalism. There are however well-intentioned individuals from across the political and social spectrum who will not shun adventurism to experiment on other pathways to progress.

At this stage of nation-building however, the burden of resolving, sans violent upheaval, the economic scarcity the country is facing is upon the laps of those with effective power or those who have access to various institutional sources of power. These powerholders are essentially the society’s elites, who may have experienced some sort of Pauline conversion in secular sense, the way Filipinos in diaspora have been to some extent remade attitudinally, having been uprooted into new ways of doing things.

The change agents could in fact be new breed of productive men who must feel relatively deprived, not materially but morally, because they are challenged (or humiliated) out of individual and national pride for being elites in an economic basket case. Once this self-importance or sense of country is stirred, the decision to attain modernity will come easier such as on what approach to take in employing the country’s resources to attain economic growth and development or how to allocate the economic surplus if and when created, depending on what ways of thinking they are willing to keep or unsettle. Even more specifically, on whether goods and services should be produced according to the autonomous decision of the individual wealth producers and entrepreneurs or government bureaucrats and specialists drawn in into those decisions in the context of public/private sectors coordination or partnership?

The looming “rice crisis” in the Philippines that threatens to destabilize the Arroyo government anew if it spins out of control is one such instance where the critical choice should have been decisively made long time ago. Today, the continuing breakdown of imagination is a telling reminder of failure to marry proven traditional practices with science in order to transition to modernity. We need not fall for or completely write off some doomsday “conspiracy theories” about giant corporate seed breeders controlling the food chain. Still a successful strategy for sustained agricultural surpluses in the area of rice production (possibly in conjunction with the development of the extractive sector) can be understood to pick up a good portion of the bill for the transition (e.g., foreign exchange from rice exports and similar agricultural supplies would help meet the need for imported capital goods necessary for industrialization).

If the political and entrepreneurial will on the part of those with effective power and resources held sway, there ought to be no excuse, given our equivalent natural and human resources, not to be competitive with rice exporting countries like our peers Thailand and Vietnam. But as it is, we are faced today with the humiliating reality of having botched big time to achieve and maintain food security for our growing population if only, at minimum, to keep their human dignity, or beyond which, for rational and free citizens of a surplus society to be actively involved in dealing with the many human problems that impact the system.

On the other hand, when only a handful of people perpetually hold power over the necessities of the many, our democracy, any democracy, is gravely imperiled.

The Hitlerian misadventures of Ferdinand Marcos that have turned upside down what’s left of our democratic experiment and whose profligacy has vastly contributed to the morass we are in today will continue to haunt many Filipinos. Interestingly, however, it was during Marcos that the highest productivity level in agriculture has been observed. Since then, we have yet to see any substantive agenda to revolutionize our agriculture in terms of productivity-enhancing investments, such as research and development and infrastructure buildup. Any such policy redirection has apparently been eclipsed by the strategic focus on labor export and ultimately blindsided by the lure of OFW remittances of enormous worth. Now, in response even to this phenomenal stimulus, what novel ways of doing things have so far been agreed upon and pursued with a view to generating internally economic surpluses?

In the face of tendentiousness in favor of the old rent-collectors and money capitalists, real estate-based entrepreneurs and shopping mall taipans, without creating an adequate manufacturing base, general economic abundance and positive liberty for individuals in the service of democracy are unlikely to come about in the immediate future. Certainly, not when the legitimacy of the present political leadership remains in question.

A similar warning was published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer (“GMA job is on the line”, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 19 April 2008, p.1) by a foreign economist, echoing what PinoyObserver wrote. Would this scenario happen? Would we see throngs of people going out in the streets, protesting for lack of food? Would we see another May 1 revolt which nearly toppled GMA from the seat of power? Imaginative minds would say yes. Analytical minds however predict no. Elements of dissent are clearly present.

However, we should take into account the social psyche of the Filipino which is predispose to peace as a means towards conflict resolution. Government is clearly in control of the situation. Despite what the Opposition might say, there is no noticeable change in Filipino behaviour since this food crisis broke out. Yes, GMA’s approval ratings dipped to its all-time low. Surveys indicate perceptions, not emotions. What we don’t see are manifestations of disgusts filling the streets.

Some would argue that, well, militant groups have staged numerous rallies and walk-outs last week. This could be a sign. But, we are not that stupid. These rallies are staged and managed events. These are not spontaneous nor combustive incidents that would tell us what Filipinos really feel deep inside. We do have historical references though when Filipinos broke out in insurgent fashion due to the issue on food. However, if we use this as behavioral indicators, it could be misleading, since during the 1930′s when food riots broke out in Manila, the flow of information is not as rapid and as far-reaching as it is now. Read: despite its expansive and free-flowing nature, information is increasingly being controlled by the state through its propaganda machinery.

Notice how government and other groups are trying to manage the situation by not allowing it to tip precariously towards anarchy. In other countries, especially in Europe, this situation which we face could have broken out into pockets of resistance. Here, no. Why? Because information has been managed so well that you don’t see an anarchist manipulating the discussion. Another factor–the lack of a rallying point. There is now a problem of leadership in the opposition. This is pathetic since, historically, not a few stood up from the ranks of the middle class during times of crisis under the Marcos regime.

Today, no figure has emerged to provide us with stellar stewardship. Notice though that the administration saw this beforehand and managed to fill in the vacuum. See how this administration positioned GMA? That explains why GMA is now being seen micro-managing the situation. Hence, I don’t believe what Darren Cooper, a senior economist with the International Grains Council said yesterday. Yes, GMA’s job could possibly be on the line. She might lose many people to the opposing side. Though, I don’t believe this could lead to her early downfall.

However, the situation could be viewed as providing an opportunity, not a certainty, of Gloria’s downfall.

Thus, we have a Philippine Rice Shortage, an Asian Food Crisis, and a Global Food Crisis occurring simultaneously. I reiterate, we are not alone.

According to the World Bank, 33 countries are facing social unrest because or rising energy and food costs.

Everything is related in the new global world, and energy prices will have an effect on food prices because of the need to transport said food staples. The price of oil has hit an all time high, and is currently hovering around $115 per barrel. This is not an accident why we also have a food crisis in our hands.

But, as food shortage go, so does the politics of each nation, and the knee jerk reaction to keep food within the confines of ones own nation, and thus exporting of rice to other nations are suffering. We see this with countries such as China, Thailand, India, and Vietnam. Sources of rice, but whose government also feel a need to clamp down on exports, lest they wake up starving as well.

Then there is the growing popularity of biofuels, and the diversion of products such as corn, towards a nation’s need for energy.

And the simple fact that production is down.

We are not alone, and we are facing a crisis similar to other African countries and our Asian neighbors. Our staple is rice, it is by far the most affordable food for the poor, but due to the rise in prices, this may change dramatically, where even the millions of poor Filipino families, will no longer have enough to buy such a basic commodity.

With poverty still a tragic fact in The Philippines, where and who can we turn to when rice is too expensive?

Food and Agricultural Organization of The United Nations

According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of The United Nations, (FAO), there are a multitude of factors as to why there is a current rise in Food prices.

(1) low levels of world stocks (especially for wheat and maize) following two years of below-average harvests in Europe in 2006 and 2007;

(2) crop failures in major producing countries like Australia in 2006 and 2007;

(3) rapidly growing demand for grain-based biofuel production supported by subsidies;

(4) gradual changes in agricultural policies of the OECD countries, where reduced levels of subsidies have led to lower surplus production;

(5) strong economic growth in developing countries and expanding world population.

In addition, agricultural markets are becoming increasingly intertwined with non-agricultural markets (energy, manufacturing, finance, etc.). Climate change and resource constraints (water supply in particular) are also influencing overall food supply and demand.

OUR GROWING POPULATION

As DJB points out, lack of Family planning, due to religious beliefs, and the church’s vehement damnation of birth control may have fueled our surging population, above those of our neighbors.

And people need food to survive, the more people, the more food that is needed. Sounds like Logic 101 to me.

The government will react to the current crisis, because of political survival. They should have made solutions long before, but because of self preservation, and the need for development, we lost focus on the number one need of human beings — Food… And for Filipinos, this means rice.

Agriculture, for all its worth, has taken a backseat for a while now, because of the nation’s need to develop “infrastructures” such as roads, NBN, railways, and so on. While this may have been the need of the government, they lost focus on the need of the millions of Filipinos who languish in poverty, and whose short, medium, and long term goal is not technology, but food.

The Domino Effect of Hoarding

In a recent interview of Javier Blas of The Financial Times, he relays to us, the imminent effect and possible disaster, should exporting nations keep on halting rice exports, and effectively hoard the supplies for the rest of the world, especially Africa and Southeast Asian countries such as The Philippines. Locally, we are concerned with hoarders in our own backyard, but globally, we are seeing entire nations do the same.

Here is part of that interview with Javier Blas,

BLAS: I think there are two or three factors here. The first one is that until very recently, food prices were rising, but it was mostly concentrated on the wheat market, corn and soybeans, but the new factor now is rice. Rice prices are rising, and rice is a much more political, agricultural commodity. It is the staple for about three billion people in the planet, and between one and a half and two billion people basically eat rice and that’s it.

VIGELAND: You mentioned the price of rice, and can you give us some context for how much those prices have spiked recently?

BLAS: It’s absolutely incredible, the increase. In 2005, you were to buy a ton of rice, it’d cost about $250 a ton. That moves to about $300 in 2006, and $350 in 2007. That’s on average, but at the end of last year we began to see a price increase, and price basically in December, January, December 2007, January 2008, was close to $500.

VIGELAND: Jeez.

BLAS: Today, $860.

VIGELAND: Eight hundred and sixty dollars a ton?

BLAS: Yes.

VIGELAND: So, in the last three or four months, the price of rice has doubled?

BLAS: Yes, indeed.

VIGELAND: Is there an element of a domino effect here, almost a panicked domino, where one country decides to halt exports, and so then another does, and then another does, and so on and so on?

BLAS: I think that what you are saying is a key point of the crisis now. This is a panicked domino effect, where everyday we see a couple of more countries banning exports just because they want to insulate the country from other international markets.

VIGELAND: What happens if, say six months down the road, this trend continues?

BLAS: If this continues for six months, the global food market is going to close. Countries who rely on the global food market are going to be unable to purchase their needs. That means that hunger is going to increase in those countries, and the key, critical regions to be hit, it will be Africa and Southeast Asia, but even some advanced countries in Europe.

Solutions To This Crisis

There are solutions that must be implemented in order for us to grow as a nation, as well as provide enough food to sustain growth in other areas of our economy.

As The FAO suggests, technology is key in tacking the issue of food prices. This thought is also shared in a recent article in The Inquirer,

I’m also keen in the following comment made by CVJ in Rom’s blog,

It’s true, rice supply is finite but a number of things can be done to build up domestic capacity in terms of policies like allocating more land (by preventing land conversions) or protecting domestic producers (by preventing smuggling), improving the income of farmers (via Land Reform) and improving yield per land (by planting higher yield rice). The thing is, we left ourselves dependent on the forces of supply and demand via the worldwide commodity market which leaves us in a weak position to deal with global price and/or supply shocks.

I think the summation is nice, improving yield per land is the goal of technology, land reform is basically providing enough land for our farmers, and the rest of the statement is quite obvious.

Indeed, the solutions are there, but are our politicians up to the challenge? This is a crisis that The Philippines isn’t facing alone, but no one can help us except ourselves. In a crisis such as this, sometimes its every nation for themselves, clearly exporting nations such as Vietnam are already displaying this. It’s good to reach out to other nations because we depend on their supply, but we can’t be bailed out forever, and this is the reason to push for being independent and not dependent on other countries for our rice needs.

For further reading, I suggest you read an article in Newsweek regarding how you should be angry about the crisis that we’re in, and the policies that lead us to this situation.

When you see hundreds of people standing in line for hours under the hot sun so they can buy 2 kilograms of NFA rice – so that they can save P50 – who do you blame?

When you look back and see that during the time of President Marcos, we were a rice-exporting country but today, we are one of the world’s top importers of rice, who do you blame?

When you realize that our neighbors, Thailand and Vietnam, are the world’s top exporters of rice and yet many of their advances in rice farming were developed in the International Rice Research Institute in Laguna, who do you blame for our own country’s lack of progress in rice farming?

As we face this (impending) rice crisis, it’s very easy to blame the government. We can see clearly that one of the root causes of the problem is the lack of an effective national population control policy. We can’t help but think that the government is not doing enough to help the poor. We are outraged by the way the government has (mis)handled the agrarian reform program – a program that lacks the support structures for our farmers and it even encourages agricultural land conversion. So now there’s less land for farming because many of them have been converted to subdivisions, golf courses, commercial centers, etc.

The government is full of brilliant minds, many even have post-graduate degrees from prestigious universities abroad. It really bakes my noodle as to how our nation’s greatest minds in the government have trouble coming up with policies, plans and projects that will address our problems. Maybe it’s really difficult to create change in our government. I wonder why.

Who else can we blame this crisis on? Ahh! We can also blame it on the rain (or lack of it). Typhoons, the Monsoon, floods and/or droughts directly affect crop yields. Let’s just blame it on climate change. It’s a hot topic anyway.

I found another sector that we could blame. While watching 24 Oras and TV Patrol this week, I saw news reports of government officials inspecting warehouses of rice traders to check if there’s any foul-play going on in terms of hoarding, mixing, etc. The implication, of course, is that businesses are the ones responsible for the crisis.

As I come to grips with the harsh realities of this rice crisis, I find comfort in the fact that it’s not my fault. It’s the government’s fault. It’s Mother Nature’s fault. It’s the rice traders’ fault. Not mine!

But as I reflect more deeply, I realize that if I blame the government, Mother Nature or the business community, then it puts me in a difficult situation because then I can’t do anything about it. I feel powerless. If I blame them, then the burden of responsibility is passed on to them, i.e. they are the ones who should do something about it and I’m totally dependent on their solutions. But what if they don’t act on it. Then I’m stuck with the problem.

Now, I understand what Confucius meant when he said that the common man blames others. Now I realize what Don Shula meant when he said that the superior man blames himself.

I don’t know about you but I have no desire to be an inferior man. And so I take the road less traveled and I blame myself for this rice crisis.

I blame myself for not expressing more concern at our population boom. I blame myself for voting candidates who have no track record of being pro-poor. I blame myself for not volunteering my time and resources to help non-governmental organizations that cater to poverty alleviation. I blame myself for not being concerned with the tenets of the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law, thinking that it won’t affect me because I’m not in the agri-business. I blame myself for not supporting efforts to control climate change. I blame myself for not speaking up against the unfair trade practices of rice businessmen in our country. I blame myself for this rice crisis and I am sorry.

As I admit that I am partly to blame for my country’s problems, I can’t help but demand change in myself. I resolve to make amends and to contribute positively in my own little way to help bring back the glory days of the Green Revolution.

As you and I realize that each one of us is a vital part of the magic formula that will help solve our problems, I hope and pray that we will live to see the day when we will be able to provide food security for all Filipinos, rich and poor alike.

I hope and pray that the Philippines will be a rice-exporting country once again.

Kaya ‘yan!

Mabuhay ang Pilipinas!