Are we ready to face the consequences of the choices that we make? Ask! Sift the chaff from the grain.
As the potential candidates thump their chests and do their do ang pony show on why they make the best case for transforming the Philippines (TO-BE), I think it would be prudent to get a snapshot of some instances of the existing circumstances (AS-IS) – and start asking questions.
Any of us can select any instance of the AS-IS, in this case, I will use Pulse Asia’s October 2008 Nationwide Survey on Quality of Life (QOL), Comparative State of the National Economy, and American Financial Crisis. The results of the survey are presented below:
While the field interviews for this survey were being done, several developments dominated the news headlines. The major developments during this period included the financial crisis in the United States that soon spilled over into other parts of the world including the Philippines, the American presidential elections, the filing of a new impeachment complaint against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the Supreme Court decision on the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD), and the controversial trip to Russia of several police officials that involved a “contingency fund” of P6.9M. Other issues included the deportation from the US of former Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn Bolante who is widely believed to be the brains behind the fertilizer fund scam, the decline in the price of oil at the world market, the impending increase in the electricity charges of the Manila Electric Company (MERALCO), and the food scare in China and other parts of the world over the discovery of melamine, an industrial chemical, in milk and other food products. The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.
Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.
A majority of Filipinos (58%) is worse off now than last year (i.e., “losers”) while an even higher percentage (78%) thinks most Filipinos are “losers” now compared to a year ago
Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, few Filipinos consider themselves to be better off now than last year (i.e., “gainers”) (10% to 18%). On the other hand, majorities across these sub-groupings – ranging from 52% in the rest of Luzon to 73% in Mindanao – see themselves as “losers”. As regards those saying there was no change in their personal circumstances over the past year, figures vary from 18% in Mindanao to 34% in the rest of Luzon (See Table 1).
Big to overwhelming majorities (72% to 90%) in all geographic areas and socio-economic classes consider most Filipinos as losers while no more than 8% in these sub-groupings consider them as gainers. Additionally, the percentages of Filipinos saying there was no improvement or deterioration in the national QOL range from 7% in Mindanao to 25% in the rest of Luzon (See Table 2).
With respect to the next 12 months, pessimism is the predominant public sentiment – both at the personal and national levels (44% and 67%, respectively)
At the personal level, pessimism about the year ahead is most pronounced in Mindanao (61%) but a high level of pessimism (i.e., relative to the national figure) may also be noted in the Visayas (55%). In contrast, pessimism is least manifest in Metro Manila (28%) where optimism is at its highest (34%). Those in the Visayas, Mindanao, and the poorest Class E (14% to 17%) are least optimistic about their personal circumstances in the year ahead. Additionally, the percentages of Filipinos who do not expect any change in their personal situation in the next 12 months are generally consistent with the national figure (28% to 38% versus 33%), except in Mindanao where a lower figure is recorded (24%) (See Table 3).
Pessimism as regards the national QOL is a sentiment expressed by majorities across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes with levels of public pessimism ranging from 55% in Metro Manila to 81% in Mindanao. Metro Manilans (16%) and those in Class ABC (16%) are most optimistic about the national situation in the next 12 months while optimism is least pronounced in Mindanao (4%). On the other hand, anywhere from 14% in Mindanao to 28% in Metro Manila do not expect any change in the national QOL between now and next year (See Table 4).
Indications of easing for some: Fewer Filipinos now consider themselves to be losers than in July 2008 (-17 percentage points), levels of personal pessimism decline (-20 percentage points) between July and October 2008, and the most marked movement in national QOL figures is the 12-percentage point drop in level of pessimism
The percentages of Filipinos who are losers drop between July and October 2008 in practically all geographic areas and socio-economic classes (-11 to -28 percentage points), with the exception of Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC. More among those in the Visayas, the country’s rural areas, and sub-Class D2, now regard themselves as gainers relative to last quarter (+10 to +13 percentage points). Meanwhile, at the national level and in the rest of Luzon and the Visayas, the country’s urban and rural areas, and Classes D and E, the sense that one’s personal QOL did not change – positively or negatively – in the past 12 months is more manifest now than in July 2008 (+10 to +18 percentage points) (See Table 5).
In relation to next year, the rise in levels of public optimism (+10 percentage points) and the percentages of Filipinos who are not expecting any movement – positive or negative – in their personal circumstances in the year ahead (+10 percentage points) translate to a drop in levels of public pessimism (-20 percentage points) between July and October 2008. Pessimism becomes less pronounced across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes (-12 to -25 percentage points) during this period. Conversely, there are currently more optimists in Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the country’s urban areas, and Classes ABC and D (+10 to +22 percentage points) relative to last quarter. In addition, the percentage of Filipinos saying their personal situation will remain the same between now and next year goes up in the urban areas of the Philippines, the rest of Luzon, Class E, and sub-Class D2 (+11 to +17 percentage points) (See Table 6).
There are hardly any movements in retrospective national QOL figures between July and October 2008 – whether one speaks of the Philippine figures or those recorded across geographic areas and socio-economic groupings. The only changes occur in Class E where the percentages saying most Filipinos are losers decrease (-10 percentage points) as well as in the Visayas where those sharing this sentiment decline (-15 percentage points) and the percentages of those saying there was no change in the national QOL increase (+10 percentage points) (See Table 7).
Levels of public pessimism decline (-10 to -26 percentage points) in almost all geographic areas and socio-economic classes. In contrast, levels of optimism go up in Metro Manila and Class ABC (+11 to +12 percentage points). In the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, Class ABC, and sub-Class D2, the expectation that there will be no change in the national QOL in the next 12 months is more pronounced at present than in July 2008 (+10 to +15 percentage points) (See Table 8 ).
A big majority of Filipinos (79%) considers the national economy to have deteriorated in the past three years – a sentiment shared by big majorities (72% to 86%) in all geographic areas and socio-economic classes
In contrast, only 6% of Filipinos think that the national economic situation improved since 2005 while 15% say there was no change – positive or negative – in the state of the Philippine economy. Between July and October 2008, there is a decline in the percentages of Filipinos saying the national economic situation is worse now than in 2005 (-7 percentage points) (See Table 9).
Among the majority saying the state of the national economy has worsened in the past three years, 77% strongly felt, 21% somewhat felt, and only 2% did not feel the impact of this deterioration on their own lives. Considerable to big majorities (64% to 84%) across geographic areas and socio-economic classes report that they were strongly affected by the deterioration in the state of the national economy between 2005 and 2008. On the other hand, among the few who believe that the national economy has improved since 2005, almost the same percentages say either that they were strongly or somewhat affected by this improvement (42% versus 29%) while the rest (10%) did not feel the impact of this economic growth on their personal lives (See Table 9).
About half of Filipinos (49%) believes the American financial crisis may have a great impact on the Philippine economy and most of them feel the crisis would have disastrous consequences for most Filipinos in general (78%) as well as for their own families (63%)
The financial crisis in the United States (US) is known to 69% of Filipinos while the rest (31%) do not know about this development. Majorities across geographic areas and socio-economic classes (55% to 90%) are aware of the financial crisis. Additionally, among those aware, big majorities (65% to 75%) across geographic areas and socio-economic classes believe the American financial crisis may have a great impact on the Philippine economy. About half (49%) of Filipinos believe that the crisis may have a large effect on the Philippines. In particular, this subgroup of Filipinos is worried that the crisis in the US would be disastrous for most Filipinos (76% to 83%) and would have adverse repercussions for their own families (53% to 69%) (See Table 10).
****
In a nutshell, the AS-IS of public sentiment is:
- A majority of Filipinos (58%) is worse off now than last year (i.e., “losers”) while an even higher percentage (78%) thinks most Filipinos are “losers” now compared to a year ago
- With respect to the next 12 months, pessimism is the predominant public sentiment – both at the personal and national levels (44% and 67%, respectively)
- Indications of easing for some: Fewer Filipinos now consider themselves to be losers than in July 2008 (-17 percentage points), levels of personal pessimism decline (-20 percentage points) between July and October 2008, and the most marked movement in national QOL figures is the 12-percentage point drop in level of pessimism
- A big majority of Filipinos (79%) considers the national economy to have deteriorated in the past three years – a sentiment shared by big majorities (72% to 86%) in all geographic areas and socio-economic classes
- About half of Filipinos (49%) believes the American financial crisis may have a great impact on the Philippine economy and most of them feel the crisis would have disastrous consequences for most Filipinos in general (78%) as well as for their own families (63%)
Observations
It is interesting that “Fewer Filipinos now (as of October 2008) consider themselves to be losers than in July 2008″ and yet “A majority of Filipinos (58%) is worse off now than last year (i.e., “losers”) while an even higher percentage (78%) thinks most Filipinos are “losers” now compared to a year ago”. This implies that the number of Filipinos who are worse off now (58%) could have been higher were it not for the fewer filipinos who considered themselves to be “losers” in October 2008.
Questions for Potential Presidentiables
1 – A big majority of Filipinos (79%) considers the national economy to have deteriorated in the past three years
- Do you agree or disagree that the national economy has deteriorated? State your reasons for agreeing/disagreeing.
- Do you see a direct relationship between corruption and the national economy?
- How did you eliminate corruption in your sphere of responsibility?
- What are the specific measures/policies you have personally crafted/implement that eliminate corruption? Was it successful? Show your numbers.
- What could you have done better to help reverse the deterioration in the national economy?
- If your spouse were found to be engaging in corrupt practices, will you let the law take its course or will you do everything you can to have your spouse spared?
- How can the economy be improved?
- What are the sectors you will focus on?
- Are you in favor of allowing foreigners to own real estate in the Philippines? State your reasons for agreeing or disagreeing
- Will you support constitutional amendments to allow foreigners to own real estate in the Philippines?
- How will you make the economy more competitive with Brazil, Russia, India, and China? Should we be competitive with these countries even?
- Do you support the deployment of filipinos overseas as a primary strategy for job creation? What are your alternatives?
2 – About half of Filipinos (49%) believes the American financial crisis may have a great impact on the Philippine economy and most of them feel the crisis would have disastrous consequences for most Filipinos in general (78%) as well as for their own families (63%).
(Note: MANILA, May 28,2009 (Reuters) – The Philippines may witness an economic recession this year if a downtrend in leading indicators continued, a senior government official said.’If this trend continues we may slip into recession,’ Romulo Virola, secretary-general of the National Statistical Coordination Board, told reporters after announcing growth figures for the first quarter.)
How will you reshape Philippine economic, foreign, and monetary policy so that it will be less affected by periodic boom and busts in the OECD economies?
Complementary Data Sources
A more detailed review of the development challenges faced by the Philippines are provided in the Asian Development Bank’s 2009 Asian Economic Outlook – Philippines.
In common with other countries in Southeast Asia, two near-term challenges stand out:
Even before the downturn, the incidence of poverty was rising, to 32.9% of the population in 2006 (the latest data available) from 30.0% in 2003, and progress on certain health and education indicators of the Millennium Development Goals was tardy. Social programs to protect the poor sometimes lack funds and often require better targeting. Still-high debt and the large share of interest payments in the budget expose the economy to swings in financial markets. They also underscore the importance for the Government of containing the debt risk premium through making steady progress on reforms. Further increases in revenue as a share of GDP and reductions in debt would not only reduce vulnerabilities but also build the fiscal resources needed for infrastructure and social programs. Tax revenue as a share of GDP has plateaued at the relatively low level of 14.0% in the past 2 years, after some improvement in 2006 (Figure 3.28.12). Perennial causes of poverty include:
Greater employment generation requires increased investment, but this is unlikely without improvements in the business climate. The 2008-2009 Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum ranks the Philippines 71 out of 134 countries and identifies:
as important constraints. |
Perennial Causes and Constraints
Traditional Approaches
By identifying quantitative measures or metrics that can prove or disprove the statements made by potential candidates, voters can hold candidates accountable, and can evaluate whether a possible candidate is talking hot air. Of course, potential candidates will try to wiggle out of being held accountable as they seek to maximize their acceptability to their base while trying to reach into other support bases.
That the causes of poverty and constraints to competitiveness remains perennial implies that the solutions currently being adopted by the Philippines have not addressed the core issues. Instead attention is focused on the trivial, the shallow, the myopic. Criteria is based on winnability, machinery, largesse instead of merit.A methodology that has proven to keep on coming up with new faces with the same tired unproductive wasteful irrelevant solutions.
Traditional Results
We can continue to focus on the parochial and get indulged in the euphoria of being “in” and having the latest scoop on who’s-going-to-team-with-who and get Traditional results from Traditional attitudes
OR
we can choose to do something that we as a nation haven’t done before:
- take the long view and start looking at the things that matter in governance and national development in order to come up with rational and cost-effective solutions; and,
- generate results that matter.
Popularity: 1% [?]
Statistics…Statistics…good damn Statistics, as the great writer
Mark Twain had written.
I dont believe in Filipino Statisticians. You can put any figures there. And claim your credential as a good Statistician. Statisticians are people. They can be subject to coercion, intimidation, bribery, etc… to tailor the results for those who can pay. Sometimes, it is a tactic for Politicians, to make the
Bandwagon effects in an Election. They show, they are harvesting a lot of votes, as exhibited on the Election Projected Results. We, the Suckers believe it. Then we vote for them.
do you have specific experience with Pulse Asia u’d like to share? (as opposed to a generalization)
I studied Statistics from a good American University. I know
Statistics more than those people in Pulse Asia. I use it on
my business for Sales Projection for many years. True Statistics, not contrived one…
yes, since you know more statistics, would u mind giving more weight here?
i’d be interested how u’d know those things u said are true. any specifics here? (please)…
tasio:
please provide alternative metrics, and we can use those as the starting point for asking questions.
whaddya think?
The only solution is to let the Election go on its own. It is
like you put mud on a bowl of water. You dont stir the bowl to
remove the mud. You put it down to settle on its own. Then, as
the bowl settles. the water will Clear. But, be prepared for
any eventualities for any CHEATERS.
i understand what you are saying, but isn’t that throwing caution to the wind?
to tasio: the PulseAsia report that BongV refers to are about statistics on QOL (quality of life). Bakit mo ipinasok ang elections? “Garci” ba ang sagot mo sa tanong?
=====================
Actually, higher than 18.4% of Pinoys (and it is higher than 23.052% if you restrict the questioning to bloggers in metro-Manila) believe that the quality of life in Pinas has gone worse because of “Garci”. :roll:
i do understand where you’re coming from, tasio, and i agree with your insight. commercial surveys are just that – commercial. it is no better than political punditry, always subject to partisan manipulation or spin. but these “contrived” surveys cannot have deleterious effect whatsoever if not given currency and undue publicity by the irresponsible media (including cyber media), or as renato pacifico would call it, “pekeng peryodista. i believe, the least said about these “surveys”, the better for the country.
Bencard:
i understand the skepticism surrounding surveys.
it still does not mean that statistics are useless.
statistics are like your blood pressure measurements or your physical workout.
you wouldn’t know your condition unless you measure.
you wouldn’t know your improvement or deterioration unless you measure.
without the diagnostics, it will be difficult to craft/prescribe/design a solution.
the consideration as with any survey is to review the sampling methods and to review the questions if these are skewed to favor a certain reply.
Statistics is okay, if the data and the one doing it. Does it with
utmost integrity. However, in the Philippines, where you can buy almost anything; from pornographic CDs of TV personalities, to Politicians who can Endorse your Candidacy. I am sorry to say: I have no confidence on the process. Almost everybody, and almost anything can be bought and sold. Some people are honest. I will not discount these people. They are rare and few. Almost extinct in our times.
I had no confidence until the Book Blockade was brought down. I see in that an inkling of a people beginning to recognize there is a different kind of power than marching down Roxas with a sign. It is called a “collective of force” marshaled with the speed of the internet. Opponents had no time to use their propaganda or threats or entrenched power to shut off the voices, which were loud and clear and strong.
Joe
Yup. It’s a good start.
True…true…thanks for the insight…
spot on, tasio.
Please Post with sense. It is our only hope for improving things
in our country. Politicians and their paid Web Bloggers will surely
infest this Web Blog Site, as the Election comes near. Hope, again
without Guarantee…
If you are referring to this blog – the intention is not to provide answers but to raise questions.
While these questions arose after reading the numbers, the validity of the questions and the relevance to nation building as against the usual same o same o dumbed down winnability, machinery discussions in lalala-land.
to Tasio: Is anything’s the matter with some of posts? Who would be in the top that you are complaining about? Thus while at this orgy, the ethical feud, call it that, there is to gain from answering your names to “pelase post with sense. It is our only hope for improving in our country.
DJB is not posting anymore, but would DJB be sometimes not posting with sense? To me, DJB is pikon but DJB writes clearly even when he is into his ad hominems and moralizing about religion and ethics and unethical pekeng-peryodistas who are anti-VFA to name the name of Lance Smith. Chucky aka cvj has been a no-show for a few months. Same with smokey Rom. Innocent until proven guilty.
Now, bencard sounds okay, to be interpreted to become that his posts are pointed and easy understanding (which does not mean that many finds him an agreeable person; just to mean his posts are readable to-wit). benign0′ posts are readable, too (so if he irritated DJB, dingG and primer, I suspect that really was his intentional objective, if you clear my drift).
Pacifik0 really wants to irritate his pekeng-peryodista posts Ha! Ha!Ha!Ha! but Renato’s posts are short, to-the-point and truly mas madaling maintindihan kaysa kay primer. Even that newbie Pobreng Alindahaw who was putok-sa-buho, his posts were coherent, to-wit, which I find true even if I have not yet drunk my coffee.
I am curious who you will name — blackshama or BongV or Real check or UP n grad or all or none. To name names when you wrote “ Please post with sense.?” Choose your preferred source to include JoeAmerica and/or miss leytenian and gaBbyD if fitting the discription. We may be in this boat to perdition on different schedules if we avoid dishonest with some others.
My initial reaction is to agree with you, tasio. But first, how do you define if a post “make sense”? Is anything’s a matter if a post defends GMA’s performance to-wit? Do we have to be chuchuwa on the same side as you or gabbyD in order for my post to make sense? Or does “post make sense” mean the post is readable and clear, call it that?
You are Old Enough to know what makes Sense. Unless, you are in a questionable Mental Condition. Or, thinking like our Politicians and
Leaders.
DJB has the choice of not Posting. If he is “Pikon”. It is his problem. Not our problem. I dont care either.
what doesn’t make sense to you?
There is more than meets the eye in statistics.
Take Asian Household Income Survey which Filipinos “in-the-know” waves at me in other blogs. THEY SAY THAT FILIPINOS ARE THE 2ND HIGHEST SALARIED EMPLOYEES IN AMERICA.
But if you look closer to this statistics, it’s actually a HOUSEHOLD INCOME not individual income.
The household population of Filipinos is 2nd highest next to Indians. The Japanese and white Americans has household population of 1-point-something with annual household income of right about 45k … So if there are two in white American’s household that would be 90k WAY WAY WAY MUCH HIGHER THAN Filipinos ….
bongv, to echo tasio’s observation, the credibility of surveys depends on the INTEGRITY of the commercial outfit taking it, in addition of course, to its methodology, as you correctly pointed out. as to blood pressure and diagnostic tests, you can’t fool mother nature. if you’re sick, you are sick.
you are sick, and you can get treatment.
but first you have to find out what kind of sick.
it wouldn’t make sense to dispense cough syrup when you have lung cancer.
but you’d never know until you take the measurements.
now if you say the Pulse asia survey is flawed, the answer then is to cite another source – and present the alternative.
politicans don’t want numbers because they don’t want to be held accountable.
for example, a politician says the NPA will be wiped by 2010 – eto, 2009 na, NPA is still here :lol:
or you might say, you will increase jobs, then cite your numbers, from what point to what point, how will people hold the politician accountable then? eh kung ganun, as far as am concerned – the politician does not merit any further attention.
The United Nations recognizes and uses the statistics provided by the National Statistics Coordination Board.
As such, even if your view does not agree with the NSCB’s methods, the United Nations does not give such view any significance because the methods are agreed on by an international body of statistical standards. Whether you agree with the numbers or not, the international community will use those numbers as a reference point – whether it is the IMF, the ADB, the USAID, the JICA, AusAID.
Here is a portal of Country Profiles on the Philippines – http://ucblibraries.colorado.edu/govpubs/for/philippines.htm
Choose your preferred source – and we will go through the numbers again.
A big majority of Filipinos (79%) considers the national economy to have deteriorated in the past three years – a sentiment shared by big majorities (72% to 86%) in all geographic areas and socio-economic classes
This is what I do not understand because there is certain ex-dean of economics that keeps saying that we are not far behind from our neighboring countries as our GDP is showing. Yet I feel it from talking to so many people as well as following the news from the Phil. and as your blog is saying above that Phil. is becoming worse economically. Why the disconnect? I keep re-iterating that since their are no jobs that we are not as well off as we think we are (re GDP)
Another stats that is very interesting is the POEA statistics … Filipinos in America has in their back of their head that MAJORITY OF NURSES who grduated from the PHilippines go to America … POEA statistics says different thing … in the year of 2008 only 6,000 nurses was accepted in the US.
Others go to Mid-East and UK multiple of times more than in America …
Google POEA statistics …
I suppose the more important question is how, practically speaking, one can start to move the numbers in a positive direction. The numbers are just the measures of progress (or lack thereof). It is the chosen human actions that determine how they add up . . .
God, I get sick of my own moralizing sometimes . . .
Joe
I wanted to compare Pulse Asia’s stats against MomBloggers stats …
But I’m lazy … can anyone do it for me please … PRIMER I see you raised your hand … Please, Primer! I’ll give you a handful of karmelitos for a job well done! :)
One. Statistics remains a dismal science. Has this view been refuted lately?
Two. SWS or Pulse Asia, either or both, have been at one point or other, been push-polling circuits. Or think plainly how indeed you will have to distribute if spread 1,200 respondents to cut a cross section of society? Provinces? Regions? Cities? Municipalities? Barangays? All these – are how many?
Three. Renato Pacifico, I was not raising my hands. I don’t know momblogger’s stats (you mean vital statistics) or what?
Four. Bong is taxing my patience. Why can’t he instead just come up with ‘bullet points’ or bring your ideas to us in ‘capsules’ rather than in newly-cut timbers. We want to see the furnitures, my friend!
Five. Reminds me of ‘upper middle class households’, remember? They are what these surveys point their fingers to – if you follow my drift.
Four. Bong is taxing my patience. Why can’t he instead just come up with ‘bullet points’ or bring your ideas to us in ‘capsules’ rather than in newly-cut timbers. We want to see the furnitures, my friend!
In case you didn’t notice, the point of the entire blog is to raise questions.
If a candidate or his representatives are unable to articulate an answer – that leaves him out of the radar screen as far as i am concrned.
As previously mentioned, choose and cite your own independent statistical measures on the quality of life – otherwise we might as well be spinning hot air.
If you are mentally challenged and have a deficit in cranking out and interpreting the numbers, If statistics in the Philippines is a dismal science, I am not surprised if your policy directions and conclusions are totally off-tangent and totally irrelevant to the needs of society for progress. After all how can you tell if you have improved if you do not measure.
That you don’t even have a reliable statistical machinery tells a lot about your candidates – their programs may have billboard appeal but only address the symptoms without attending to the root causes.
So over all, essentially, you are like a ship without rudder, without a compass, and yet you will have people to follow a direction that leads nowhere – you have gotta be frakking kidding me – e kung ganun, it’s more of the same – and you wonder why it’s more of the same – going nowhere – :lol:
Always, people rally behind lost causes.
I guess there is something than meets the eyes in so-called ‘book blockade’.
Compromise would have been mutually beneficial.
Would you have thought bong that a ‘presidential fish’ will lose himself in our tiny little pond to answher any or all of your questions – to your highest level of satisfaction?
We might end up – ourselves answering them, partly or wholly.
Suppose that indeed I am being able to answer your host of questions satisfactorily, would that have opened the door for me to be – city mayor or congressman, at the very least?
Bong, I have just taken my coffee.
Primer:
Questions have a way of racing through the blogosphere and forwarded emails.
It could just wind up being asked during a panel interview on TV ;)
Mi amigo, bong.
Even polling circuits will tell you straight to the face that statistics is just it – one findings in a series of findings.
DJB best describes it as a bird flying backwards. You see, and be honest, as soon as we have the survey results, we would have been three weeks behind the latest reality. I hope you get me. That makes your statistical data dismal. Even Prof. Hernandez is telling us that since this is early in the game, nothing can yet be predicted, just nothing.
Lest you demean BF, he graduated mechanical engineering from Mapua, received x number of doctorate degrees (however honoris causa) and he does a lot of statistics. Didn’t you know that even that u-turns is a product of statistical study? That dismal science is in his genetic code so don’t be a bit worried.
Oh, less you forget. Please don’t lecture me on navigation to the point you wish to compare me to a ship without rudder, compass, etc>
Come on, I know where I am getting my fixes – with or without the stars. Have heard of pre-plotted course? Ask me because I have been in the Navy.
you have a pre-plotted course based on a faulty map, riding a rickety boat :lol:
so your pre-plotted course says Sangley Point, and you wind up in Siquijor Island bohol :lol:
How about you when you drive your Ford Car, you don’t read the statistics on whether your gas tank is full or not? Or the statistics on your speed? How about your bank account? You don’t read the statistics on how much money you have in the bank?
Eh kung sa simpleng bagay nga you keep track, then on the more complex stuff you present lalala-land.. ano ba yan men… baka mapapaboto ka na naman ke Erap nyan :lol:
Lest you demean BF, he graduated mechanical engineering from Mapua, received x number of doctorate degrees (however honoris causa) and he does a lot of statistics. Didn’t you know that even that u-turns is a product of statistical study? That dismal science is in his genetic code so don’t be a bit worried.
BF is a good candidate, but is he the BEST? ;) :lol:
Primer, if you have the time, would you take BongV’s quiz for presidential candidates and post it here? I’d like to know your stance on things like the economy and corruption. I’ve taken the quiz myself, but would not be so presumptuous to lay it out here, what with me not being Filipino and all.
Joe
Bong,
How do I (over)simplify?
Have you at any moment in time gotten hold of a copy of an SWS Report (the report itself) or Pulse Asia, for that matter?
If not, then I have no further question.
In the meantime, in case your are having a bad cough, take the syrup. I can hear you coughing.
Primer:
In case you have not across the term time-series, learn it :)
and for your convenience, here’s a copy-paste on Time-Series
In statistics, signal processing, and many other fields, a time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times, spaced at (often uniform) time intervals. Time series analysis comprises methods that attempt to understand such time series, often either to understand the underlying context of the data points (Where did they come from? What generated them?), or to make forecasts (predictions). Time series forecasting is the use of a model to forecast future events based on known past events: to forecast future data points before they are measured. A standard example in econometrics is the opening price of a share of stock based on its past performance.
The term time series analysis is used to distinguish a problem, firstly from more ordinary data analysis problems (where there is no natural ordering of the context of individual observations), and secondly from spatial data analysis where there is a context that observations (often) relate to geographical locations. There are additional possibilities in the form of space-time models (often called spatial-temporal analysis). A time series model will generally reflect the fact that observations close together in time will be more closely related than observations further apart. In addition, time series models will often make use of the natural one-way ordering of time so that values in a series for a given time will be expressed as deriving in some way from past values, rather than from future values (see time reversibility.)
Methods for time series analyses are often divided into two classes: frequency-domain methods and time-domain methods. The former centre around spectral analysis and recently wavelet analysis, and can be regarded as model-free analyses well-suited to exploratory investigations. Time-domain methods have a model-free subset consisting of the examination of auto-correlation and cross-correlation analysis, but it is here that partly and fully-specified time series models make their appearance.
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Capicce?
Let me ask you,
what’s the poverty incidence in your city?
what’s the credibility of your data?
do you trust your data or not?
:lol:
so, how can you say, by how much your city has improved? you can be improving 5% when the average is improvement is 10%.
but without your numbers, you will be clueless :lol:
are you telling me, you will have someone lead you from nowhere to nowhere?
Again, good substantive blog, BongV.
But it seems the country is more focused with the ‘Talong ng Bayan’:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/philippines/5400332/Philippines-gripped-by-actresss-affair-with-Doctor-Hunk.html
Phil:
Talong ng Bayan – True that :lol:
You cannot manage what you cannot measure.
If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it.
Fine with the tangibles and measurables, what about the intangibles, which is what some surveys do measure ,like questioning people who does not even know how a recession is strictly defined,by asking them: do you think that we are in a recession?
That is my only problem,with such survey methods, always a detail missing, a minute detail if asked would actually change everything.
If another question asking for the definition of recession, or do you understand my question would be published with the rest of the results, you would see things differently as well.
speaking of western ideas:(re:Tasio)
What about that balanced scorecard and strategy maps, how do you do you differentiate strategies vis-a vis results??
Sure you have a strategy,but in regards to results, what will you use?Empirical data?
no, you use promises like targets. to me that is questionable.
If Tasio is talking about ordinary statistical methods learned in the US, they are taught here as well.
lastly, I liked renato’s example on household income.
here’s a COPY-PASTE reply:
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On the matter of strategy and results, here’s a good ezine article on Strategy
Results are the consequences of a particular action, operation, or course; an outcome.
BongV,
Thanks a lot.
BongV says “Noted success authority, Winnie the Pooh, is recorded as saying, ‘Before beginning the hunt, it’s good to figure out what you are hunting for.’”
Bong, that line seals my conviction that you are the font of all informational wisdom. I laughed for a full 10 minutes. From statistical analyses that rattled my brain to Pooh’s reduction of opposing thought to a very simple, but often missed, truth. I have yet to see an argument you couldn’t counter with good information.
I’d personally like to see you try for solutions, too.
Incidentally, Pooh got up into the tree where the honey bees were. He knew what he was hunting for. But he missed the calamities ahead.
So I offer my favorite management principle. “You don’t know what you don’t know.”
Joe
Joe:
Winnie the Pooh was included in the copy-paste precisely to bring about the exact reaction.
The reaction to Pulse Asia or SWS was understandable, so maybe if Winnie the Pooh or Dilbert were the source it will be more credible, or maybe even an old newspaper used to wrap dried fish :lol:
As to solutions, in general it will be aligned with the constraints to competitiveness presented by the ADB: inefficient government bureaucracy; inadequate infrastructure; policy instability; and, corruption. There is a lot of material on the details to these solutions. However, even as the grassroots is being empowered from the bottom up, there should be a parallel movement from the top down – and top-down in this context means electing somebody who gets things done, in optimum time, minimal cost, with maximum impact to the widest number of people.
As to the means for achieving change, the change framework I outlined – and apply it to initiatives before and after elections. The process of reaching out to opinion makers is very much an ongoing work in progress.
I agree, when you don’t know, you don’t know. But, when you don’t know, find someone who knows. I recall the story about two candidates being interviewed for a job in sales. One was a walking encyclopedia. The other was a street smart dude. When asked about a fact, the walking encyclopedia started sounding off the numbers. The dude on the other hand said, I don’t know the facts, but for $10, i’ll find you someone who knows the facts – the dude got the job :lol:
As calamities go, my favorite Japanese truism is “fall eight times, rise nine times”.
I don’t mind canned or box answers as long as I understand the point.
I honestly did mind (right,leytenian?),but that was then.
About the source, I learned not to care whether it is from Yogi Bear or Yogi Berra as long as I get it.
Pooh, whether in the original or pasted, is a genius.
The Japanese have amazing wisdom when it comes to progress (while somehow retaining their isolation and risk-aversion). I worked for them at a bank in California. My favorite takeaway is the notion “Ask why 5 times” to get to the REAL root of a problem. Like, the answer to “why are women in the Philippines abused” is not the “VFA”. To get to the real truth you might have to ask why 15 times, with each unwrapped layer of the onion growing more pungent.
Joe
Google what statisticians call as “Interviewer Falsification” or go to http://www.amstat.org/sections/SRMS/falsification.pdf
Thanks for the link.
Joe America,
Perhaps, we first should disabuse our minds.
We can shortlist the presidentiables to the more serious ones out of a field of more than 80. Try to come up with only 5 – top 5.
Then, do the following via a matrix done for the purpose:
1. count how many years they have been in government service.
2. total all their salaries, allowances, ratas, if more importantly, the budget that are within their prerogative. For instance, a senator administers a P200 million fund a year, a congressman a P70 million a year fund, et cetera.
3. show how each one accounted for their discretionary budget
4. assess how much did actually filter down to solve poverty
5. ocular inspection and audit
3.