I’m reserving comment for now and will defer to thre boys and girls in the room to take the first crack.
Here is how the presidential aspirants are doing, as tracked by the Social Weather Stations.
(Graphics from ABS-CBN News On Line, candidates’ avatars added)
The story is here:
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/02/01/10/aquinos-lead-down-7-points-january-sws-survey
Popularity: 5% [?]
Wohoo!
This proves Dolphy is the KING!
Walang binatbat yang baduy at corny na commercial ni Noynoy to Dolphy’s star power. You put a star on a seat, let him talk in an endearing fashion and it resonates. On the other hand, Noynoy’s patronising commercials are probably made by the same people who thought Mar’s padyak was a good thing.
Well played Manny Villar, Dolphy is money well spent.
Nash, don’t forget that the survey results also showed Mar is pulling away from Miss Loren.
Mar doesn’t need any help. He has an easy campaign.
Loren, the political whore, is simply revolting.
ooops.
I meant ‘repulsive’..
“Well played Manny Villar, Dolphy…”
The KO punch could be the ad by the other Manny: Pambansang Kamao Pacquaio.
Yes.
If Manny wins his match in March and then comes up with an ‘informercial’ for Manny Villar then it’s going to be all over.
Noynoy had a chance to break it wide open. For someone with ‘no money’ he wasted his first ad on a corny MTV that was utterly pointless. Ngayon tinatanong ng LP why there ads are not ‘resonating’. Well it’s simple – what have Dingdong Dantes and Darna done for you lately.
Paquiao’s mass appeal is related to his boxing prowess only. Natalo siya sa election, tapos nilangaw ang pelikula niya. I don’t think he has a knock out punch with Villar. Well, if he wins on his fight the euphoria might help somehow if he endorses Villar. So, Villar should be praying harder than the rest of us for Pacquiao to win.
Noynoy should be concentrating more on how to project a strong image and should be continuously and relentlessly hammering out on Villar’s Achilles Heel-his evading to defend himself in the Senate investigation of the C-5 controversy.
Teodoro, Villanueva, Gordon, and the rest of the fringe loony candidates should do the earth a favour and withdraw.
Shorter ballots means faster elections and saves the trees.
Methinks one telling data is how even Erap’s numbers outstrip Gibo’s, 16% to 4%.
The kiss of death is all too obvious.
The rest are running for office as Filipinos run Gloria out of office.
Well, it’s still more than 100 days till election day. The April poll will be the crucial one. That’s when the so-called ‘command’ votes get to decide.
And Erap Estrada drops out and endorses a front-runner.
The srveys sugest that if Erap wthdraaws, the classs D/E votes wil move to Viillar (who appeals to OFW’s) or to Todoro (in the provinces wher the machnery strong).
Outside of cheating, there is no empirical evidence for the existence of “Command Votes”.
Having gone through all that, it will be fair to conclude that:
1. It is no rocket science and we don’t need a statistics PhD to tell us that, if the election were held today, Aquino will be the likely winner with at least 45% to 52% of votes cast.
2. Since the race is a plurality, Aquino will have the highest number of votes, but he will not have a true majority (50%+1) – he will be a minority president.
3. With the entry of candidates other than Villar and Aquino, voters WHO DO NOT PREFER Aquino ranged from 48% to 55% of total voters. If Noynoy inherits Cory’s incompetency, he can also wind up inheriting the coup d’ etats that plagued the notoriously inept Aquino administration.
4. Given additional choices, there are voters who do change preferences as shown by the fact that the entry of other candidates (Tables 2-5) , when compared to an Aquino-Villar race only (Table 1) led to a reduction in voter preference for both Aquino and Villar.
5. Villar had a setback with Aquino’s instant candidacy after Cory’s wake. The euphoria and the sympathy votes appear to be waning as more issues come to the fore as shown by the 13% decrease from October-December.
6. Despite the C-5 issue, Villar has been trending upwards.
7. Doubts about Noynoy’s ability, performance, people-behind-Aquino, stance on Hacienda Luisita are being discussed. It does not help that Noynoy has been avoiding the issue and has come out sounding like a weasel. Aquino can have the cheesiest tear jerking ad. But such an ad sounds so phoney given the depth of suffering and misery in Hacienda Luisita. The argument is simple really – if you cannot clean your own backyward, why will I trust you to clean mine? or that of my neighbors? By coming with pronouncements only now but not acting when it was needed most – Aquino is seen as an opportunist.
8. The election is still 9 months away and roles can be reversed. Villar can re-emerge as the frontrunner garnering anywhere from 46% to 56% in a plurality.
9. Gordon, Reyes, and Perlas don’t have a chance.
more at… you know where ;)
I find the observation of the media handlers of Aquino a no-brainer.
“The Liberal Party has attributed Villar’s rise in the surveys to his massive political ad spending, which includes endorsements by popular comedians such as Dolphy and Michael V.”
If they believe this, then there is a need for sssessment of their political strategies to maintain the lead of their candidate.
1. Does this mean that Dolphy and Michael V are more effective endorsers compared to Kris and her young son Baby James?
2. Does this mean that if Villar gets more popular celebrities to endorse his candidacy, he will be able to beat Noynoy?
Abad however downplayed Villar’s gains saying they are not that significant compared to the huge amount being spent by the Villar camp on political advertisements.
Did he compute the correlation coeeficient between the increase in the spending and the increase in the rating in the survey. Did he find out if the correlation is really significant?
If the significance is backed up by statistics and not a mere dismissal because the party becomes defensive, they may just wake up with their candidate tailing the rival candidate who increases his spending because it brings favorable effect.
Don’t expect politicians to use statistics.
Even the ‘economist’ GMA doesn’t believe in statistics.
So why are they using the surveys? Aren’t surveys using statistics with margin of error to prove that they’re reliable.
Don’t tell me they’re prose?
Well it’s selective. If it’s in your favour, you use it.
GMA for example keeps showing the exit polls that shows she won versus FPJ but conveniently disregards the satisfaction ratings.
I understand that Villar and Aquino do rely on surveys. However, the fringe candidates + Erap still rely on ‘kutob’ and the magical ‘command votes’
whoever conceptualized the Villar Jingle “nakaligo ka na ba sa dagat ng basura” must have gotten a big big bonus. Hit na hit kasi sa mga bata, and that’s a big factor, esp to parents who aren’t decided yet on who they are voting for.
i believe Villar will win ( i am not voting for him, though). but here’s my reasons why he will win:
http://siyetehan.blogspot.com/2010/01/why-villar-would-win-in-2010.html
Villar can win. JC can win, too.
Pilipinas!!!Cory visits NyNoy to telhim that JC is the one.
If JC can win, then kayang-kaya ni Erap manalo.
Well, since I’m not in Manila right now, I’m happily not forced to listen to any of this infernal campaign jingoism, so I can’t really have an opinion about any of these ads and campaigners.
But this is what I”m really wondering about, Ding: a 7% difference between Villar and Noyoy at the height of the C5 scandal? Does that mean that Pinoys ultimately don’t care about corruption or that the results have been manipulated?
Considering what’s been happening with COMELEC, the chances of a failure of election r not entirely remote (my humble opinion only). Don’t forget, people may be using SWS the way Gloria used it against FPJ: as a form of psy-war. Also, we still don’t know if the present AFP Chief of Staff, Gen. Ibrado, will be extended (altho I certainly hope so). Gen Bangit was after all the next AFP CoS as GMA’s former PSG Commander and a member of PMA class of ’78 (where GMA is an adopted member). Then there’s the fact that GMA insists on appointing a new Chief Justice even when it’s pretty clear that it’s unconstitutional. Fr. Bernas has already warned her as much.
I hear the transmissions for the PCOS machines are having trouble due mainly to poor Telco cellular signals. Plus, I was told that there may have been illegal importation of cellular signal jammers. Still trying to verify this but I’m afraid I can’t go into more detail on that for now…
I have a feeling things may get worse before they get better. But I certainly hope not…!
P.S. About “Does that mean that Pinoys ultimately don’t care about corruption or that the results have been manipulated?” above, I should add the following caveat, however: the latest survey was done before the Senate C5 report was released by Enrile. Let’s see how Villar fares in the next one. Unless, of course, he commissions it himself — which could naturally alter the findings.
if he alters it so he only hears what he wants to hear – then he is fooling himself and will be making flawed decisions due to flawed assumptions – he loses.
Telco Signals are not poor.
The supplier (Dumbmatic) is simply incompetent. All you ever hear from them are lame excuses.
Their shitty machines can’t even read the ballots correctly. If the LRT ticket machine can read the most crumpled and filthiest100 peso bill, there is no excuse for the Dumbmatic machines not to be able to read black shades on a white background.
Cellphone jammers are another excuse. Unless these jammers are the size of cars, they have a very short range and the way cell sites are (supposed to be built) is that they form a redundant (ideally) honeycomb pattern where one picks site picks up the slack when the other has failed.
Excuse for what? Is it really pure paranoia or r we just preparing ourselves for all possible eventualities? Better safe than sorry, I say. Thanks, but I trust my sources.
Cellphone jammers are built to work inside a given location–so is COMELEC providing any scanning equipment for polling places? Is anybody?
Corollary:
http://atmidfield.com/2010/02/03/the-elections-under-seige-is-digital-dagdag-bawas-possible/
Excuse to mask Dumbmatic + Comelec incompetence. So if all things fail, then there are plausible reasons.
Jammers have very short ranges. (As every school child knows, signal power decreases exponentially) The longer the range, the bigger the jammer needed. To completely shut down a cell site you’d need something the size of a cabinet (very hard to hide) and you have to be so close to the tower, given that the tower will be at least 50 feet.
You could get off the shelf hand held jammers (used in theatres or hospital ICU units) but then this means you’d have to be in the precint next to the Dumbmatic machine to make any difference…by then it will be obvious because all of the cellphones won’t work. You inspect the room, and do a process of elimination, asking one person to leave to see if the signal is restored.
Jammers would only delay transmission of data. Complexity is needed if you actually want to not just jam the data but alter it as well. I don’t imagine Abnoy, C5 at Taga, Erap, or Giba to be THAT intelligent to pull it off.
And Dumbmatic should have fail-safe mechanisms. Can you imagine an automated poll company of international repute like Smartmatic (pwe) not designing a robust system?
To me it only shows that Noynoy is not being seen a Mr Clean or Noynoy was not viewed as an anti corruption at all. People know very well that Cory has kamag-anak Inc. that can easilly resurrect once Noynoy come to power. Therefore Nony is not the right psoter boy for the anti corruption crusade.
The biggest flaw in Noynoys campaign is that it is so emotionally anchored even worse is that the emotional foundation is not really that strong. ( the death of Cory ) Its is not issued based or principle base at all. That makes it so shaky and weak that can easilly be demolished with a mere ads and exposes by Villars camp.
The good thing with this survey is that Noy noy realized that he has to start working now. Hindi na pwede yung tatamad tamad na katulad ng ginawa ny for the lst 10 years or so in punblic servant.
At pls stop, he should stop using Gloria in the campaign. He should start showing what he really got to deserve the presidency.
It’s going to be an interesting election technically. Comelec is just not reliable. Fundamentally, all top threes do not seem to fit to the job description of a president. gumamit pa nang artista? ang baduy niyo. pinas talaga.hay naku. bahala na.lol
Oo nga — nakakaloka! :D
Sinabi kasi ni Noynoy na nabibili sa Quiapo ang surveys na gawa ng SWS, ayan tuloy.
Hintayin na lang natin surveys ng Pulse Asia. Kaya lang baka naman sabihin ni Villar gawa sa Morayta/Recto iyon.
ibig sabihin noong nangunguna siya sa surveys, binili nya yun sa Quiapo?
alam na alam kasi nya e. ;)
Hinihintay ko kung this time his handlers will ‘criticize’ the results…
“If they believe this, then there is a need for sssessment of their political strategies to maintain the lead of their candidate” – The C at
Yes, indeed, it’s now reality check for Butch Abad and the other Noynoy handlers.
The almost sixty percent rating of Aquino III last November is what they used to make Mar Roxas step down. Well, in hindsight and based on the latest survey was a good decision by Mar. Now they realize that those numbers were just sympathy rating, if we may call it that, over their family’s grief in Cory’s death.
With Roxas and Drilon secure in their respective ratings, could ‘let’s make a deal’ be far behind? I happens in these islands, you know?
Philmanila,
L,
May I share:
http://atmidfield.com/2010/01/28/the-may-202010-elections-a-look-ahead/
Excellent. Thanks so much, Ding.
Surveys are contrived ccampaign materisl to favor a certain candidate.
“How to lie with statistics” would be instructive to know how these bogus surveys lie and lie and lie.
SWS and Pulse have been very credible.
Besides, if one intends to lie, one does not need statistics.
Cat,
The increase in ratings survey can be correlated to increase in spending plus other factors like organization etc.
But let’s focus on the ones you asked about.
As we all know, television has the widest reach and is the most effective way to get a message across. TV beats radio, print, and campaign sorties hands down.
1. Messaging.
Villar’s political ads are very good. The messaging is clear. It is concise and simple with the right mix of reason and emotional appeal.
The messages are also well-targetted and, if you will notice, very responsive to issues that surveys identify as the ones voters find most important i.e. “what can you do for the poor”, “is your heart with the poor”, “are you generous”, “can you deliver”.
Corruption etc. are secondary issues as far the lower economic classes are concerned. Most of them have accepted corruption as a given. Kalakaran na yan korupsyon is what one hears most often.
So to most voters, never mind the overpriced highway, never mind that you could have built three for the price of one as long as you give them one.
So messaging.
2. Spreading the word.
Again Villar beats everybody as far as media saturation goes.
In the first week of January alone, Villar ran close to 300 TV commercials, 99% of them were 45-second spots equally spread out in daytime and primetime slots.
That audience reach is incredible, 85% to 90% of all TV viewers get to see his ads anywhere from 1 to 3 times a day.
Add to that the fact that he gives away houses and cash in the top noontime shows.
3. Good message + media saturation (lots of money for ads and promos) = Increase in survey ratings.
Lila Shahani,
The corruption issue unless it can be shown in a convincing manner that it is a direct cause of poverty will not defeat the from, of, and for the poor platform. By a convincing manner, I mean media saturation. Repeat it more often and louder then it becomes the issue.
Manny Villar spent P543 million from October to December 2009 in political ads accdg to Nielsen, the only non-company in the top 15 of ad spenders for that period.
I imagine he would be pissed if for that amount of money his campaign spin doctors didn’t deliver. And the Dolphy ad is the best we’ve seen so far.
Manuel,
Please feel free to call me Lila.
As for media saturation, I’m sure that’s true. Unfortunately, since no one seems to have Villar’s money, I’m afraid they won’t be able to compete in significant ways.
Corruption does not always have to be a direct cause of poverty. But it would be interesting to research what the government funds that Villar allegedly used were to have been used for, and whether people were displaced by the extension, etc. I’ll look into it.
Lila,
No one can seem to answer how Villar has liquidated so much CASH.
His wealth is tied up to real estate and shares in those companies and his SALN only declares P1B and most of this is NOT cash.
We know that ABS-CBN and GMA are paid in CASH not houses and lots so did Villar somehow have an undeclared stockpile of cash? Selling company shares to get that amount would have been obvious to the SEC. His companies aren’t even making that much profit (accdg to their filings)
Maybe Villar under-declared his SALN and thus violated the law and evaded income tax.
Hi Nash,
Problema kasi Villar and his wife r CPAs, so they know their sh..t when it comes to this sort of thing.
Possible scenario: what if the auditor who certified his books were clean had been bought? Wala naman talaga tayong independent audit sa Pinas, di ba? Unfortunately, most things r negotiable.
So Mr BIR threatens to examine the books and they end up chilling out over coffee at a fancy dive. Revenue audits eventually come up and… presto! That’s the end of that.
Does the SEC then raise red flags about the F/S of Villar’s group of companies? That’s SGV territory, in large part, di ba? But hey — again, no problem.
The problem is that most biggies r under-declaring their SALNs and COA’s not about to audit them.
A comparison of SALNs in 2008 and 2009 should indicate any increase in net worth if one just looks at salary vouchers, for example. If there is an investigation into unexplained wealth, and it reaches the Ombudsman, will it move? Unlikely.
How is it that the biggest tax cheats in the country r the 9% — as opposed to the 91% salaried — businessmen and professionals not included in the gross taxation scheme?
So hard pala to track. Even Imelda’s $987 b.
It’s depressing. But of course we’ll keep trying.
Well then, it only proves Villar is
1. Dishonest
2. Dishonest
3. Dishonest
And a dishonest man doesn’t just invest P7B in an election without expecting a lucrative payoff
“We have to come up with a clearer and sharper message,” – Erin Tanada, Noynoy spokesman.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/regions/view/20100203-251102/LP-concerned-over-Villar-surge-in-survey
New improved Noynoy:
1. Corruption impoverishes/kills.
2. I will not appoint any of my kamag-anaks.
3. We will give up Hacienda Luisita.
4. I will be President, but I will let Mar Roxas run the government.
5. And last but not the least, I will ditch Bong Abunda. :)
SWS and any other surveys ≠ Election results
Okay, so the Pulse Asia is out (for those who haven’t seen it yet):
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/183055/noynoy-villar-head-to-head-in-latest-pulse-asia-survey
It does seem as if the general public is not overly disturbed by corruption. But while I prefer Pulse to SWS, I would also be inclined to wait for the next survey simply because not a great deal of time has elapsed since the Senate C5 talks. It would be good to know exactly when the Pulse survey was prepared. I also wonder if it hasn’t sunk in yet, in which case things could still change…
At any rate, an acquaintance (who shall remain unnamed) shared this post in a group thread on Facebook. I was initially aghast at his initial premise (are people really THAT simplistic and lacking in intelligence?) but now I am having second thoughts. I’d be interested to know what u guys think:
“Filipinos in general have inclination to the politicians na ‘inaapi’. The phenomenon is primarily influenced by the the telenovelas. Ang Pilipino, pumapanig yan sa nakakaawa dahil everytime na tinitingnan ng Pilipino ang sarili nya sa salamin, ang nakikita nya ay isang nakaka-awang tao sa lipunan. Let’s look at the top 3 of the recent surveys.
Top 1. NoyNoy’s dad was murdered and his mom lived a simple life after the Presidency. But the more NoyNoy shows huge spending in TV Ads and close association with the elite, the more voters would shy away from him.
Top 2. Villar came from the poor, he worked hard to be come successful, and he is being politically persecuted now that he is eyeing the top position. The more you hammer Villar with the C5 Scam allegation, the more he will gain popularity.
Top 3. Erap was elected by the masses in a wide margin, but the elite found ways to oust him, and now he is back. People who loves Erap love them with their life — they will stick with him — specially the participants of that EDSA 3, who, despite the numbers, failed to oust GMA because the elite did not follow the lead of the masses in the battlefield.
The rest of the Presidentiables don’t have these “inaapi” images, that’s why despite their being righteous, intelligent, experienced, and highly-educated, they don’t seem to get the pulse of the masses.
That’s Philippine politics. You have to have a history of being oppressed or a history of being an advocate of the oppressed before you can gain the heart of the bulk voting masses. Even if Gibo, Gordon, Acosta, Perlas, and Villanueva will consolidate, the only candidate they can possibly catch up with is Erap.”
–
Could there be something to this, guys? I mean, so far we’ve all been talking about our own respective priorities as a group of individual bloggers. And while we may all have different socio-economic, cultural and political backgrounds, essentially we comprise a minority as an educated and relatively intelligent group of people who has the time and interest to blog in the first place. While we all have bills to pay, we r still not as disempowered as some people I know who have to hold down three jobs, for example. After all, blogging takes time and doesn’t necessarily pay, right? So: while corruption is personally unacceptable to me in a candidate, say, someone else might be rendered uncomfortable by the social class (and apparent interests) of another candidate. Still others will harp on qualifications.
But what if the majority don’t in fact give a rat’s ass about all that? What if it all boils down to: who’s going to give me some money (whether they address poverty in the long-term or not), as Manuel suggests above, and “Ang Daigdig ng Mga Inaapi,” as this guy suggests…?
He says Villar is inaapi in the Senate. But I would argue that, in the blogosphere at least, it’s Noynoy who keeps getting endlessly attacked. People don’t even bother to attack or question Villar (and even Gibo) all that much, at least from what I have seen (although I could be wrong). Notice, for instance, that the “Manifesto for Positive Campaigning” on Gibo didn’t get anywhere near the number of hits Abe did in his controversial Noynoy blog (not the latest one). But then the demographic we’re talking about may not necessarily be interested in the blogosphere, after all.
His argument is also flawed because, as we all know, it’s Villar who’s been doing the most spending on TV ads. But I guess his point is about public perception.
If it’s true that many of the poor feel this way, I suppose I can still understand. It would be a projection — a kind of mimetic instant, that’s all. But I certainly hope for the sake of our country that the more educated will demand more of their leaders than this inaapi factor…
Anyway, just pondering here and thought I’d share…
Lila,
I do not subscribe to this opinion that Villar is improving in his survey rating because of the inaapi image.
The “inaapi” image just came out after the report on C5 extension was discussed by his detractors and allies in the Senate.
The message of his ad, where he told viewers about his roots in tondo,is that he himself was poor. He wanted to impress to the public that compared to the presidential candidates who were born with proverbial silver spoons in their mouths, he is more credible in approaching the poverty issues of the country since he has been there.
It is in politics where the underdogs do not get the neccesary campaign funds from the corporate sponsors and or business magnates. The absence of such necessary G (gold) will retrict their reach to the target market in terms of ads.
Filipino voters have a short memory span, thus the popularity of Noynoy is waning. Besides his media handlers are not clear on what he is fighting for except to fight corruption and not to be corrupt himself.
In a household, it is not enough to maintain the house clean and neat; the head of the family should also see to it that the members of the household do not become hungry.
The Ca t
Yellow Fever has BEEN CURED! The Cory magic has faded again!
How exciting!
Glad to hear it, Ca t. I was personally rather horrified by his thesis.
I can’t really discuss the ads because unfortunately I haven’t seen any of them (even the Dolphy one, but I’ll certainly look for it in Youtube).
I look at the candidates independently of their media handlers, and perhaps that’s also a good thing, because I can imagine one could be potentially swayed or thoroughly turned off by the barrage of campaign ads people r seeing now. It must be almost vertiginous. But the ads r still not enough of a reason to accept or reject a candidate, in my view.
Lila, the Dolphy one was good. It appealed to emotions. the Noy ones… sorry i didn’t like it.
Cocoy, o baduy na kung baduy. Di ko pa kasi nakikita, e. And I love Dolphy, so I’m sure his ad was good.
But we’re more discerning here, aren’t we? Don’t tell me everyone is falling for the ads themselves? Let’s not forget that Villar spent P70.43m (vs. Noynoy’s P7.82m) for ad spending during the survey period alone. In fact, Villar has already spent around P2.5b. So of course he gets what he pays for.
Surely there’s more to a candidate than that.
Lila
The Pulse survey caught the start of the C5 debates.
Historically, as the election draws near, voter preference turns to what can you do for me.
Lila:
I think the emerging strategies are:
Necropolitics for Noynoy, and I’m-the-poor-noy-from-Tondo-now-the-underdog-from-the-C5-pulitika-lang-ito stunt for Villarr.
Note how the interests of the Pinoy are pushed to the sidelines.
Yes, indeed, Ding. Which message resonates the loudest nowadays:
“Ninoy/Cory hindi kayo nag-iisa.” or
“Nakaligo ka na ba sa ilog ng basura?”
Tapos na ang pakikiramay, ang tanong ngayon — sino nga ba si NoyNoy?
There’s a big difference in the results of the latest presidential surveys done by SWS and Pulse Asia for the same period. One showing Noynoy leading Villar by 7%, the other having Villar and Noynoy running neck and neck. Maybe that’s because one was bought in Quiapo, the other in Morayta/Recto, :).
“It does seem as if the general public is not overly disturbed by corruption. But while I prefer Pulse to SWS, I would also be inclined to wait for the next survey simply because not a great deal of time has elapsed since the Senate C5 talks. It would be good to know exactly when the Pulse survey was prepared. I also wonder if it hasn’t sunk in yet, in which case things could still change… ” – Lila
Lila,
But for the next survey, The villar camp is about to play up the Luisita Road Project that can be very damaging to Noynoy.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100203-251119/Luisita-road-issue-to-cause-further-drop-in-Aquino-ratings
Noynoy really just have to start working hard and really show us what he got to deserve teh presidency. Hindi pwede yung tatamad tamad na katulad ng ginawa nya for the past 10 years or in public service.
He should stop riding on the GMA low popularity. He should start showing the people that he can do better than GMA or the other presidential candidate. Kumita na eto last senatorial election and with not so good result. ( Thanks to senate performance of Escudero, Trillanes and Peter Cayetano) He should remember that his mother Cory wasn’t able to topple GMA, eh sya pa kaya? And the civil society is of no great help either.? The civil society wasn’t able to help Cory topple GMA what make him think it can help him this time?
I think its better for Noynoy to back out now other wise napakalaking kahihiyan sa memory ng ni Ninoy at ni Cory ang mang yayari!
I’m sure you’re right, rego. As with Ca t, I agree with most of what u say except for your conclusion.
But I think Chino makes a great point: survey results do not necessarily equal election results. Since the numbers keep changing, I suggest we wait. Again, as I’ve said several times now, it might be good if we all reserved judgement until after the campaign has started. We might all end up being wrong, for all u know. Some kulelat may end up surprising us all.
Yes, I don’t agree with riding on one’s parents or on GMA’s low popularity: he should absolutely start showing people what he’s made of. But perhaps we should just give everyone — Noynoy, Villar and co — the benefit of the doubt for now.
Let’s all wait and see. At this point, it’s really too soon to tell either way.
Ay, mga Gibo lovers pala kayo. Talk about selling-out on the RH bill.
And HE himself is always welcome to say “GMA Talsik Diyan!” Perhaps we shouldn’t hold our breath, tho…
yes Lila im voting for Gibo. I believe he is much better than Noynoy.
I dont know Lila but do you know of any politician or any candidate for that matter whose numbers is going down that was able to bounce back? 60% to 42% Geez that says a lot ah! Its like a downward spiral eh. Should he wait until it reaches 30%
Problem with Noynoy is that we all know that he has to work hard and show something more than the rest of the candidate. But does he have something to show? Does he something work hard on? He can only make promises. But he is not even good in that! He doesnt even have his own charisma very much unlike his Father.
Question: if you are the handler of Noynoy, How would market him to the voters to raise his ratings again? Obviously the anak ni Ninoy and Cory is no longer working, what is left to market now? Platforms? Ala rin eh! GMA unpopularity? They have been throwing that issue to Villar since day one and obviously its not working. Do you have something in mind.
Tell me Lila, if you are the daugther of FVR and you are running for president and you lost, Dont you think it some affects the integrity of FVR?
I’m not a marketer, rego. That’s not my area at all. I leave that up to the media experts. But, when I’m back in Manila, I’ll be certain to convey my observations and criticisms.
I’m not FVR’s daughter: I’m his niece. If anyone is hot and bothered by that fact, it’s certainly not me. I certainly never once brought it up here in FV until other people did, as if it were some sort of crime. That tends to be the unfortunate group of people who, despite their education, think everyone in families like mine r THE SAME. As I tried explaining to BenignO and Ilda, my Mom and Uncle have a long history of seeing things differently — but they remain on good terms. Furthermore, I made my position fairly clear in my “open letter to FVR” (see my blog), so I think most intelligent people understand that we r different people.
Let’s say person x’s Dad was a wife-beater. Does that make x guilty too?
If I ran (not that I would) and lost, I would take complete responsibility for it. I wouldn’t pass the buck on to FVR or anyone else. His credibility would be assailed by my loss only in the eyes of people WHO TEND TO LUMP PEOPLE IN THE SAME FAMILY TOGETHER. To my mind, it just highlights an ignorance about what really goes on in such families.
Forget the marketers. What do U think about Luisita vs C5? Noynoy or Villar aren’t your candidate, right? So perhaps u might even be able to muster a little objectivity here. What DO u think of Villar? No comment, non-sequitur? Hmm.
A for Gibo, kindly take a look at my discussion with leytenian in “At the Starting Gate.” Maybe u can answer what she has apparently been unable to.
Rego,
Your boy Gibo should back out. And your gal Gloria should resign. That way we can all go about our lives secure in the knowledge that our wallets are safe.
Teodoro can not quit because Teodoro has the reasonable proposal for Pilipinas unplanned pregnancy problem. Perlas is okay except he opened his mouth with the “A” word. Perlas : abortion in first weeks of pregnancy. Perlas won’t make it past 5% — the CBCP will see to that.
Teodoro has the correct balance — NO to abortion but YES to the science of condoms, IUD’s, the pill, the same devices used by GMA and the members of congress plus the households at Forbes Park, La Vista, Bel Air.
Noynoy has apparently been “turned” by the CBCP with Noynoy just repeating the mantra “responsible parenthood” missing the utility of condoms and IUD’s for oversexed teenagers and parents who want to stop at three or four or who want another year or two spacing before their next child.
In next many more weeks, maybe Nonoy will be more clear his proposals to increase jobs, decrease unplanned pregnancies, reduce crime, increase the number of public school buildings, reduce the damage from yearly typhoons, increase per-capita-income. He is always welcome to say “GMA Talsik Diyan!”
manuel,
Im still going for Gibo, because he makes more sense to me than the rest of the candidates and at ayounger age at that. Im realistic about it he will not win.
I will not feel bad if Villar wins because he is clearly is more qualified than Nonoy. Performance wise Experience wise and Leadership wise.
I will surely feel bad if Noynoy wins because he is not qualified at all. But of course he is more mabait than Villar.
Now if Noynoy loses, di ba malaking kahihiyan naman kay Ninoy at Cory. Although Cory already lost her face when she was not able to led a people power against GMA. Sana sa kay Ninoy man lang. Napakaling dagok naman yata sa pangalan ni Ninoy kung matalo is Noynoy ah!
Ewan ko ba, hindi ba narerealize ng mga GMA haters na katulad mo . Its actuallly Villar among all the candidate who can stop GMA from being a premier if ever the the cha cha is realized.
What’s the matter, rego? U not interested in Manuel’s Dad/Uncle here? Oh, I forgot: it’s only the “elite” who get lumped together. U know, families like Gibo’s.
oh no Lila I know very well that you are not FVR ‘s daugther. Its only a hypotethical question but ist a good example becuase FVR became president.
But I think Noynoys case is different. Becuase e deliberately decided to run based on the his lineage eh. Yun ang mga pronouncement nya eh .
BTW Im not in Pinas Im in New York City
Ay panalo na si Villar if he still has more money in the bag.
Noynoy will falter down the stretch once his meager resources have been depleted.
Well, at least panalo siya sa number of Facebook friends.
Villar cashed in on the Vista Land IPO. Strange but the usual holding period for major stockholders of companies doing IPO were not applied to him. So an old friend from the SEC told me he bullied the commissioners for the exemption. Anyway, the man added that Villar made off with at least P7B from the IPO. That is his war chest for the campaign. That is cash.
he obviously did not declare it in his SALN.
who are these investors who invest in an ipo where the biggest shareholder offloads quickly and massively?
You guys ain’t seen nothing yet. Wait ’til he become president, he’ll give Bill Gates a run for his money in the race for the top no. 1.
Your info is A-1, Manong.
The pakikiramay-octane that was power to the NoyNoy Juggernaut has fizzled. The “sign from the heavens” is no more.
What Noygnoy needs now — Hard work, hard campaigning and friends willing to open their wallets.
Juggernaut daw, heh.
The problem with Noynoy is he has Boy Abunda, Darna, Dingdong Dantes, and a whole slew of C-list ‘artists’ as endorsers. Plus a senatorial line-up composed of the ugliest people on the planet.
What 2% margin of error can mean:
AbNoy 37% – C5 at Taga 35% (AbNoy wins by a 1M margin)
AbNoy 37% – C5 at Taga 37% (Toss Coin)
AbNoy 37% – C5 at Taga 33% (AbNoy wins by a 2M margin)
AbNoy 35% – C5 at Taga 35% (Toss Coin)
AbNoy 35% – C5 at Taga 37% (C5 at Taga wins by a 1M margin)
AbNoy 35% – C5 at Taga 33% (AbNoy wins by a 1M margin)
AbNoy 39% – C5 at Taga 37% (AbNoy wins by a 1M margin)
AbNoy 39% – C5 at Taga 33% (AbNoy wins by a 3M margin)
AbNoy 39% – C5 at Taga 35% (AbNoy wins by a 2M margin)
AbNoy can look on the bright side, if elections were held today, he is likely to win. Sadly, there are 100 days left, has he collected enough piso-piso to not do a Hillary Clinton and implode in the homestretch?
Ang saya saya talaga pag tabla! Very exciting! (Erap, Gibo, Villanueva, Gordon, utang ng loob umalis na kayo, pampagulo lang kayo)
Thanks, Nash — good to see it laid out like that.
Pero buti hindi ka inaaway! I made the exact same point about narrowing the fight down, and they all jumped at my throat. Hindi ka kasi guilty-no-matter-what-member-ng-”oligarch”-class (no variegations among power-brokers, you will find)… Pero yung mga affiliated with GMA and hob-nobbers with the elite like Gordon, Gibo and Erap), okay lang…
FV is pro-Noynoy? Bah humbug, people. The group’s silence on Villar’s C-5 — given the narrowing gap — is PRETTY DEAFENING. When analysis is selective, it ceases to be rigorous, in my book. So, Mac, BongV and all: u mean to tell me most u u r more hot and bothered by someone’s family name and a few TV ads than the C5 issue, where actual theft might have taken place? Come on, people. I think u all need a little perspective here. Baka naman ang philosophy ng karamihan dito ay: basta galing sa mahirap, kahit ano pa ang gawin niya, okay lang. Because, well, he’s one of US, see.
Come ON, guys. Surely not everyone from the elite is evil, just as not everyone who originated from the masa is good. Napaka-Manichean and rudimentary naman ng view ng iyan.
“FV is pro-Noynoy? Bah humbug, people. The group’s silence on Villar’s C-5 — given the narrowing gap — is PRETTY DEAFENING. When analysis is selective, it ceases to be rigorous, in my book. So, Mac, BongV and all: u mean to tell me most u u r more hot and bothered by someone’s family name and a few TV ads than the C5 issue, where actual theft might have taken place? Come on, people. I think u all need a little perspective here. Baka naman ang philosophy ng karamihan dito ay: basta galing sa mahirap, kahit ano pa ang gawin niya, okay lang. Because, well, he’s one of US, see. ” Lila
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Hmmm Lila, there is no need to defensive about family name. Noynoy is being attacked on his family name becuuse he choose to run on that basis. His drumbeaters are also doing the same trick.
I also have the same feeling for Gibo. That he is being judge based on his family name. But the good thing with Gibo is that he did not run on that foundation and he did managed to distance himself from uncle danding he even did not run under Dandinsg party. So he is on his own. He even choose toaline himself with GMA despite her very low popularity rating. From that alone I can already say that Gibo is better than Noynoy.
If you closeley observe how Kris behave and the pronouncements of Noynoy, they are clearly exploiting their family name. I heard there was an ad which says ” pag may pangalan ipangalandakan”.
On FV being pro Noynoy, why dont you try revisiting most the entries here especially that of the blog owner . Becuase I too believe that FV is pro Noynoy. But I feel there is nothing wrong with it for as long as the anti nonoy liek me are free to expresse their thought her too. We all have to make a choice…
BTW Lila, I do enjoy, Benign0s, Bong V, and Ildas writing just as I enjoy the Ca T and your writings in your blog. I do feel that they are all sensible writers here in Pinoy blogspehere . Of Course Manuel Quezon too.
Rego, call it academic method: the rigorous thinkers that I know would look at pros and cons in ALL the candidates. They would say: on the one hand, Perlas is good because x, y and z, while he is not so good with respect to a, b, c. They would use the same degree of rigor when talking about Gordon, Bro Eddie, Gibo, Erap, Villar and Noynoy. Academics in general tend to avoid being overly polemical — in fact, they go out of their way to attempt to be objective. So, even if it’s merely cosmetic, they will ALWAYS make it a point to mention other points of view, even if it is only to acknowledge that they exist. In a nutshell, it’s considered to be standard form.
Of course I understand that we’re not exactly trying to be academics here. But I must admit I was still a little nanibago with this tendency to say: my candidate good (i.e., the only solution for the country, thank u), your candidate bad (as in: pure, unadulterated sh…t). There’s no nuance, u know? Wala tuloy intellectual give and take. I’ve never heard one person say: well, x is my candidate but I agree that your candidate is strong in this, as u say; mine could certainly improve with respect to that. I see what u mean about z; u r right. The intellectuals I know tend to recognize they don’t know everything, and r pretty generous listeners; they also r big enough to admit when someone has proven them wrong. Here I get the sense that we r essentially talking AT each other rather than TO each other half the time. Waiting for the other person to take that proverbial breath before rushing to make our own point, which will never change. Lines r drawn, positions r recalcitrant, and it’s all about dissing the other one’s candidate and buttressing one’s own.
I live in NY too, so I’m used to people here not stereotyping families — most folks here tend to be pretty sophisticated, as u know. But BenignO did not really critique my points on the issues I had raised, which would have been fine: he critiqued my right to be given credence because of my opinion and who my uncle and my mother were (check Abe’s controversial blog and BenignO’s various blogs) and therefore “who” I was; before understanding where I might have been coming from (in more subtle ways), he decided I was a moronic heiress, period. Was I offended? Not really because it’s not true on both counts anyway. It just reeked of class resentment, that’s all. But I will admit I was a little floored by his lack of any attempt at objectivity. Because he didn’t strike as being a moron: half-baked, yes, but a moron, no.
BongV is a different story. His schtick is to say: well, if Villar stole, I take it with a grain of salt. After all, the oligarch class is all supporting Noynoy, so okay lang. The latter’s main crime is that he belongs to the oligarch class, whether or not he happens to have his own money and even if he has committed no crime. But, if that’s what he thinks, why is he then not a Marxist? Furthermore, he tends to couch his arguments with the my-candidate-good-your-candidate-evil axiom. And yet, when asked to present a platform on Gordon, he remains noticeably unable to do so.
At least u can say what u like about Gibo, which is fair enough (since we’re all entitled to our opinions), and that what grabs u r “qualifications.” My opinions on Gibo have already been made in my discussions with leytenian and Miriam elsewhere, so I won’t repeat them here.
I actually think Ilda and Mac r capable of listening to other points of view, so there’s no problem there. But, u will admit, 4 of more entire blogs in which I feature prominently when I was not THE main topic (some would call this demonizing, no?) on their respective websites is a major reaction to one para I left under Abe’s blog (the subject: why I was making my choice). Ilda even assumed that I was responsible for the moderation of the editors, as if I had such a hold on them! As she put it, it’s because they r now hob-nobbing with the class they r supposed to be critiquing. Don’t u think the reaction was kinda overkill, and says as much about some of them as it does about me?
I mean, if u said something I didn’t agree with, I wouldn’t rant and rave or write about u and your “ilk” endlessly. I would disagree with your point to your face and leave it at that. And I would definitely move on.
I’m actually rather proud of my family in comparison to some of these duds in government right now — so there isn’t usually a reason to get defensive. And everyone in the know knows that I tend to agree with my Mom more anyway. And while I may note that some of the folks u mentioned r highly intelligent, it’s also pretty clear that some would be hard put to write a balanced essay a professor would consider to be acceptably rigorous. It’s pretty clear that some have deeply-ingrained prejudices and nothing others with different views say would ever have an impact. So why bother?
At least u have said elsewhere that u prefer Villar to Noynoy. That tells me that u really r all about “competence” and qualifications, more than anything else. That honesty and integrity r not all that important to u. Well, we all have our own criteria for excellence, and u and I will always see that issue differently — but, hey, no problem. Personally I prefer honesty, but that’s just me. But what I find so noteworthy is that many others here apparently refuse to address (or even mention) Villar at all. I’m not losing any sleep over it, but I will observe a biased perspective and absence of rigor here, given how much Noynoy has been attacked. Being a member of a given family is not in and of itself a testimony of guilt. Does this mean that many don’t really care about corruption? Forget the surveys: I’m talking about the FV bloggers themselves.
Oh OK Lila, I understand your point very well. And Im not surprised at all. Ive been in the blog world for so long and I totally understand you. Two of my most favorite blogger, Benigs and the Ca T are forever at odds but that doesnt stop me form liking then both and enjoy their writing.
I believe that each and everyone of us in the blog world has their own personal crusade and we can really become so passionate about it. Oh you should see my own personal battle in PCIJ blog 4 years ago ( Grabe talaga yun ). I went to the extent of challenging my “enemy” to meet me in Times Square
OK lang yan Lila. Just keep blogging. Kung maiiwasan ang personalan mas maganda. Kung hindi naman Ok na rin.
Bust just the same, I will continue reading all of you and participate and throw in my comments if I m free .
P.S Funny that we are both awake at this time.
“At least u have said elsewhere that u prefer Villar to Noynoy. That tells me that u really r all about “competence” and qualifications, more than anything else. That honesty and integrity r not all that important to u.”- Lila
Ah wait Lila just clarifications here. Honesty and integrity is just as important to me as competence and qualifications. I just believe that Noynoy and Villar are at par in this department. But since Villar is more competent and qualified and qualified I prefer him over Noynoy.
If Noynoy is really honest and and full of integrity as what his supporters and even himself believed, He should admit that he is ill prepared, lesser qualified, lesser competent and has fewer tract records among all the candidates.
You see Lila, I too come from a political family of the 60′s and 70s. Well not on the same league as yours. And I believe that there is no such thing as 100% honest politicians. You can only claim one is more honest than the other. But there is no precise yardstick for honesty unlike preparedness, qualifications , competence and track records. To asses candidates bsed on honesty and integrty is very subjective and very prone to personal biases. In otherwords Im a data driven person maybe becuase Im an engineer.
Oh BTW, I believe that Gibo is more honest and has more integrity than Noynoy and Villar , that’s why my preference is him over Noynoy, Villar and among all other candidates.
Diyos ko, kahaba-haba ng sinulat ko! No, I have nothing personal against them; I’m just observing that some obviously do about me. Pero okay lang. People tend to get sheepish once they get to know me better anyway… ;-)
Of course I’ll read everybody no matter what. I do enjoy many of their comments, whether or not they happen to be at my expense. :D
I agree with u about Caroline and also about riding on one’s parents in general. Not that Noynoy’s were not admirable, but to me that is neither here nor there. But i’ve already explained elsewhere that I choose him because he strikes me as being the most honest. It may matter less to u, but it happens to matter a lot to me. Hindi siya nagpayaman when he easily could have done so. To me, that’s a better start than someone who doesn’t distance from a corrupt boss, like Gibo.
Gibo I have problems with also because of other issues I discussed with leytenian (please see “Starting Gate”). The unconstitutionality of martial law; the existence of illegal arms caches and private armies, etc — he never said a word, right?
As for Villar, if people don’t care about corruption (??), they should at least care about how he makes a mockery of the Senate (as a Senator!) and routinely FLOUTS THE RULE OF LAW. So apparently they don’t care about that either, and that’s pretty sad, don’t u think? No wonder we have a culture of impunity. But, in the end, the voters will have to start taking some responsibility for the leaders that they choose
“FV is pro-Noynoy? Bah humbug, people. The group’s silence on Villar’s C-5 — given the narrowing gap — is PRETTY DEAFENING. ”
Errr, Lila:
Shouldn’t the crew of Abe, MB, JCC etc. who painted Filipino Voices yellow be making the noises to defend their choice of color.
The DEAFENING SILENCE just gives credence to the Anti-Pinoys’ claim that its all about popularity and winnability.
Think about it…
“Ang saya saya talaga pag tabla! Very exciting! (Erap,.. . umalis na kayo…”
Make no mistake about it, Estrada would drop out and will endorse a front-runner to his solid 15 percent masa ‘command vote.’
He would logically extract some concessions such as Senate presidency for third-ranking senatoriable Jinggoy, one or two cabinet nominees,and similar others.
As with the blessing by Iglesia ni Kristo, El Sahddai, etc, whether its Aquino or Villar who will gets Erap’s endorsement, would again depend on the surveys.
Yeah, you’re probably right, Phil…
that what im feeling too, and of course he will not do it without conseesion no. either money or some political favor. Most probably he will go to Villar. I dont think he will go to Noynoy. Kay nag if Noynoy and Villar is statsitically tie now. Villar will most likely be the president than Noynoy
hahaha, will see. erap can be a stepchild in many ways just like the many others. which admin got him out of jail? what did Villar and Noynoy do at the Senate during all that legal. Sit and watch without warning the people? they both have a higher duty, right? GIBO will win. (wink)
While yellow fever has been shown to be curable, Cognitive dissonance is much much harder to get rid off especially if you have messianic tendencies.
Gibo is ‘intelligent’ and knows by now what flatlining at 5% means. Gordon is also ‘intelligent’ and knows that at he can probably drill for oil with his abyssmal 1%.
100 days of Cognitive Dissonance must be hell on earth for these two.
Jamby is in it to be invited at debates and annoy Villar. She is probably very nervous at the looming Villar presidency and will do all she can to destroy him, even if she spends all her inheritance.
Erap? He is much harder to predict. All I assume is his ego is hurt real bad and he might just want to do the sorties to get affirmation at least.
well at least Gibos numbers is increasing… My feeling is that Gibo knows that he wil not win in this election. He is joining the race to get name recognition for the next senatorial election and even for the next presidential election. I am supporting him know becuase I believe in him and I like his approach. Kesa naman sa iba dyan nag guamgamit lang nga family name nila or their popularity as an actor….
“Gibos numbers is increasing”
Ya, he is pulling away from the 5th spoth.
It helps that Gibo is not spending his own money for this run at the Senate. Campaign finance will keep him in a deeper state of cognitive dissonance.
Besides, name recognition is not always going to work. Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda both got the highest votes in any national election and yet despite this ‘recognition’ faltered in their presidential ambitions.
Gibo made a run for the president, polled a dismal 5%. Which candidates have made a run straight from the cabinet/congress to the presidency, lost, and ran successfully for senate?
Gibo is just a Gloria Arroyo stooge. A man with such low standards. A man who knew the Ampatuans were violent and yet did nothing. Alam pala niyang bayolente ang mga Ampatuans eh. Alam pala niyang kurakot si Gloria eh.
I’m afraid I don’t understand what u mean about Abe and JCC, Phil. They do defend their candidate, don’t they? They also question Villar. My point is: the rest don’t, even tho everyone from all sides questions Noynoy. Interesting, no? Think about it.
“FV is pro-Noynoy? Bah humbug, people. The group’s silence on Villar’s C-5 — given the narrowing gap — is PRETTY DEAFENING. When analysis is selective, it ceases to be rigorous, in my book. So, Mac, BongV and all: u mean to tell me most u u r more hot and bothered by someone’s family name and a few TV ads than the C5 issue, where actual theft might have taken place? Come on, people. I think u all need a little perspective here. Baka naman ang philosophy ng karamihan dito ay: basta galing sa mahirap, kahit ano pa ang gawin niya, okay lang. Because, well, he’s one of US, see. ” Lila
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Lila,
Manuel Buencamino himself said this earlier:
“Corruption etc. are secondary issues as far the lower economic classes are concerned. Most of them have accepted corruption as a given. Kalakaran na yan korupsyon is what one hears most often.”
Although I tend to disagree that this only true to lower economic classes. (sounds elitist right and true to form to the civil society “kuno” aproach where he claimed to belong) I believe this is true to all filipinos.
I firmly believe the FVR or your uncle Eddie was one of the two best president the country had ( the other one is Magsaysay) But even in his term there were corruption too. So given na talaga ang corruption.
But the issue here is not the family name per se. Its the question on who is the better qualified and has a good vision for the country.
Another question for you:
1. Is it right for Nonoy to run when he himself knows very well that he is ill prepared, less qualified for the job and has very little performance record to show off ?
2.Is it right for Noynoy to run by just exploiting the prestige that his parents Ninoy and Cory built? I personally feel that this is very insulting to the sensibilities of the enlightened and independent thinking filipino voters ( Manuel Quezon III analysis of the recent pulse asia survey showed that: ” Manny Villar is strong in the 25-34 (10 points) and 35-44 (4 points) age groups”
http://www.quezon.ph/2010/02/04/the-long-view-the-battle-for-the-arroyo-babies/
We both live in NYC. Remember Caroline Kennedy when her name was floated to be the replacement for Hilary Clinton’s senate seat? She wanted the position but withdraw later when the criticism of her exploiting the family name mounted. Now if the Aquinos really liked to be called is the Kennedy of the Philippines. Dont you think it would have been better for Noynoy to follow Caroline’s example?
you forget that his family name is his best asset.
as in nature, the best genes produce the best offspring. it is the natural law.
were his parents Gloria Arroyo or Mike Arroyo, then he would have been a mikey Arroyo.
It’s weird that people attack AbNoy using his best asset.
Better have an honest man in office than a crooked on.
Caroline Kennedy never held elected or government office when her name was floated. That’s why people were wary of her jumping straight to the senate.
Rego,
My statement regarding the lower economic classes attittude re corruption is based on survey data.
As for Gibo suffering from his family ties. No. That’s wrong. Gibo’s problem is he is the standard bearer of Gloria’s party. I like Gibo that’s why it saddens me that someone with Galing and Talino sought to become the standard bearer of Gloria’s Lakas/Kampi.
A Chinoy friend, a self-made man who earned his billion or so through honest hardwork and sheer luck, told me -” I don’t really like Noynoy but there is no other choice. Forget Erap and Villar, both men are big-time crooks, and Gibo is just more of the same because how can he stand up to Gloria when he can’t even stand up to his wife. The others are just wasted votes.”
As for me, the first thing I look at is honest and integrity. If a candidate passes that test then I begin to assess his qualifications for the job.
Sa madaling salita, gusto ko muna makakita ng police clearance bago sa lahat.
SPOT ON!
No matter how great your CV is, even if you print it on scented coloured paper, if your NBI Clearance/Police Clearance is bagsak you will ecounter much difficulty in getting employment.
I think generally, NO ONE can deny that.
Ano bang kasalanan ni AbNoy – anak siya ni Cory at ni Ninoy; compared sa kasalanan ni Money Villar – he used his influence as a government official to make a profit to the detriment of public finances. (Ok lang mag-profit. The Ayalas also lobby very hard for infra to maximise their bottomline but at least they are not also doing the signing of the permits.)
Tatlo lang naman pagpipilian – AbNoy, Villar, Erap. Hwag ng isali si Gibo sa usapan.
Its actually depends on how you see it.
Gibo s sticking it out with GMAs party despite the teh negative popularity of Gloria only showed to me that she is not using GMA negative popularity just to get elected.
I rather have than teh Rectos going ot liberal party after sticking it out withGMA foir a while . I rather have that than Escudero and peter cayetano using GMA scandal.
Loyalty is an excellent value.
Its very easy for Gibo to take the route of Escudero, Peter Cayetano, Recto and even Noynoy. just to get elected. Kontarhin mo lang si Gloria ayos na ang buto buto. After all he is originally an NPC not lakas. Pero ano naman ang value nyan to people like me who doesn’t like that kind of route ta.
Turncoatism is viewed by a lot people as anegative virtue you know.
Nashman,
Hindi nman talaga kasalanan ni Noynoy na naging anaks sya ni Cory eh.
Ang hindi lang maganda kasi ay tumatakabo is Noynoy na gamit gamait ang pangalan ng tatay at nanay nya kahit na alam na alamg nya mismo na kulang ang preparasyon nya, kulang na kulang ang kanyang nagawa sa mahigit na 9 na taon sa public service.
May panagarap pala syang maging presidente bakit hindi nya pinaghandaan ng husto. Di ba napakagnada sana kung na anak sya nI Ninoy at Cory tapos mabait sya , tapos maganda ay maraming syan nagawa, Eh di sana wlang ng tayong ganito debate. Hindi ako sira ulo na hindi ko sya iboboto kung marmai nag sya nagawa.
Isa pa hindi pa tayo tapos sa popularity contest kind of eleksyon. Unti unti na sanang hindi nanalo ang mga artista. Ano na ngayon ang pag kakaiba ni Noynoys sa mag artistang tumtakabo lang dahil sa popularidad nila. Gnayan ba sya kababa? Edukadod naman sya ah at anak pa ni Ninoy at Cory. Doesn’t that shows a alot about his integrity?
C’mon, let’s get real, if Ninoy and Cory were your parents, you’d use that to your advantage. “My parents were generally decent people and raised me well, so I’m a decent guy”
So WHAT would you expect Noynoy to have done in 9 years than NOT to be corrupt in our current climate? What can a senator or congressman have done?
I suppose you belong to the school of thought that Senators and Congressmen are measured by the number of ‘bills’ they pass.Manny Villar doesn’t even submit to the processes that these laws require. I looked at Lito Lapid’s senate ‘performance’. My god, this laughing stock has authored and co-authored many bills on Science and Technology! Let’s make him president.
Experience is overrated. If you want Experience, vote Erap. Among the candidates ONLY HE has the experience of being president. Does AbNoy have experience? No. Does Manny have experience? No. Does Giba have experience? No. Only Erap.
In your workplace, who are you more likely to want to collaborate with? AbNoy, Money, or Erap?
Great points, guys!
rego, I’ll cut and paste na nga. These were the Gibo questions I posted elsewhere. Let’s see if u can answer:
1.) Why did Gibo never raise the alarm about private armies when he was at the DND, especially with respect to the atrocities that were happening in Maguindanao? After all, they ultimately didn’t begin recently. Yes, earlier administrations had their respective stakes as well, but the issue here is this administration. And if GMA is being held accountable for patronage politics with regards to warlords like the Ampatuans, shouldn’t Gibo be as well?
2.) Re the illegal arms, there r only two possibilities, as far as I can see: either a.) he condoned the fact that rogue military personnel were selling arms in a local black market; or b.) he DIDN’T KNOW, in which case he must have been ASLEEP. That’s what I meant by command responsibility.
3.) He’s a bar top notcher, right? So u mean to tell me that he DIDN’T KNOW that the imposition of PP 1959 (Maguindanao martial law) was unconstitutional? As u might recall, former Supreme Court Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban himself noted that the Constitutional violations of PP 1959 were pretty glaring and could be easily spotted by any freshman law student. Doesn’t this suggest complicity?
4.) Let’s talk about Ondoy for a minute: u mean Gibo failed to anticipate the Ondoy devastation (and properly react) when it is common knowledge that climate change has been triggering more rainfall and worse floods for years now?
5.) Notice how he panders to the US “terror” line, the predicate for pursuing the US agenda in resource-rich Mindanao? I gather u agree with this, since u noted elsewhere that u approve of his views on national security.
6.) In two presidential debates, Gibo said that he would focus on creating a bigger military and police force. But beyond police and military expansion, wouldn’t a more long-term solution be to address poverty and the lack of social justice in the country as a whole? As we all know, there r enormous disparities between the rich and poor in terms of access to information, education, opportunity and wealth. Why not put that money into education, health care and livelihood programs instead of on security alone?
Well…?
you believed that about ondoy? the flooding of entire cities? makati under water?
my feeling/reading is that it was an extraordinary event, and that no one predicted it.
this actually an interesting question Lila. so when you are un Manila, maybe your should attend the forum where Gibo is one of the speaker and throw this question to him. I too is very interested on how he will answer this question. I definitely cannot answer this for him.
“As for Villar, if people don’t care about corruption (??), they should at least care about how he makes a mockery of the Senate (as a Senator!) and routinely FLOUTS THE RULE OF LAW. So apparently they don’t care about that either, and that’s pretty sad, don’t u think? No wonder we have a culture of impunity. But, in the end, the voters will have to start taking some responsibility for the leaders that they choose” – Lila
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O yes Lila, that is something that is scary of Villar. Another thing is Villar has a lot of money that makes him even more powerful and scarier. That is why even if I feel that Villar is the most competent and high achiever among the candidates I have so much reservations in voting for him too.
I even look up at him for doings things that has has really good impact in the changing the lanscape of Philippine politics. Example, Erap impeachment. And of course, Speaker of teh House, Senate President and now presidency, thats quite an achievement . He can really make things happen.
And you see, we have laws and system and process that can handle misbehavior of politicians. Flouting the Rule of Law is pretty much covered.
But there is no clear laws, proces and system against less qualified incompetence, lacking of visions, and slow peforming public officials or president other than election. In the cas eof president we have to wait another 6 years again.
also Lila , what is our assurance that Noynoy or his handler or his kamag anak will not flout the rule of law? Already Aquino family flouts the rule of law in case of Hacienda Luisita. And everytime i look at Kris, I always have the anxious feeling that this woman will not hesitate to do it.
Rego,
How exactly does the Aquino family flout the rule of law in the case of Hacienda Luisita?
The Aquino family is a minority owner of Hacienda Luisita so are you saying that the tail can wag the dog?
There is a case before the SC right now regarding Hacienda Luisita. Have the Cojuangcos or the Aquinos ever indicated that they will defy the SC if it rules against them?
well did n’t you said ther is case against them in SC right?
That is exactly my point if somebody flouts the law then let the justice system do its work. There is really no assurance that any body from among teh candidates will not flout the law.
Now if we say that Villar is floutingthe law then file a case against him.
On the other hand there is no law for incompetence, ill prepared ness, slow performamnce, lack of vision. So we have to assess the candidates on these now otherwise we will have for the elected official resigns or finished his term wich is 6 years.
Come on, rego. This time u really have to get your facts straight. But I think Manuel already answered your questions very well. The HL case is in the SC (the rule of law). Kris doesn’t need politics to have a huge fan base and a great deal of money. Whether u like her or not is not the point.
rego, if you’re worried about Noynoy’s kamaganaks (who exactly ba?), what about GIBO’S — never mind his wife; what about Danding himself? Monopolies, privatization, deals under the table — the works. Because Danding’s the deep, dark secret of Philippine politics, isn’t he? In the final analysis, it’s the corporate elite that calls the shots in this world and politicians r just puppets half the time. FYI, it’s Gibo’s ties — to GMA and Danding especially — that I’m most worried about. If Kris and Korina r your biggest fears in a Noynoy presidency, then just don’t watch TV, lol! It’s hardly a problem. ;-) And certainly not nefarious in the way a GMA/Danding tandem backing Gibo might be.
Or a Senator like Villar who apparently doesn’t even believe in the Senate or the rule of law.
How could u possibly say that Gibo and Villar have more integrity than Noynoy? U actually believe that, rego, after everything we’ve discussed? I mean, u yourself don’t know the answers to some of the questions I raised — u couldn’t seem to manage even one! I’m not knocking u personally, I’m just saying: don’t u ever worry that u might be backing the wrong horse here? Just because he’s smooth and smart and easy on the eye, yadda yadda yadda? So what? HIS kamaganaks r the most likely to flout the rule of law, if u ask me.
And judging by what u and leytenian have said about Luisita, u would think that Gibo himself was for land reform! Come on, guys. I think it’s time for u to get to know your own candidate a little better. Danding would never want his properties to be divvied up. Unlikely that Gibo — his puppet — would either.
Exactly Lila, flouting the law is not a Villar specific isue but for everybody that can be taken cared off by the jsutice system
Like Gibo’s kamaganaks!
Rego,
Kris Aquino earns more money in showbiz than any Aquino can hope to earn in Hacienda Luisita. She can survive very comfortably without HL. Criticize her over what her acting, hosting, endorsements, and style but you have no basis to say she’s got her eyes on HL as her bread and butter.
Besides the Aquino children are unlike the Arroyos, they live simple, honest lives.
Yes, Manuel — the rest of the kids r really very simple. That’s why I like them.
Good point MB , but if KRIS can survive and Noynoy can survive without Hacienda Luisita , why not just divide it to the farmers. Life is not that simple when your own family’s land has been subject to an event not acceptable by many farmers.
Leytenean ,
I think Manuel already answered that whe he said Noynoy and Kris was not teh majority stakeholder.
I was actually pointing out is that ther is no assuarnce thet Nonoy or his handlers or his relatives willnot flout the law. There was such a thing as Kamaganak Inc during Cory’s term. Maybe Noy will not do it, maybe kris will not do it ( which i really doubt she wont) but how about the kamag-anak the handler , or the supporters who can wield influnce over Nonyoy. I have an impression that Noynoy persona will not be able to control all of this.
The thing is there is a justice system that can take of this fears.
If Noynoy can held change this popularity constest then he is my hero just liek his father. Pero wala eh, nakisawsaw din sya sa ganyang maling sistema.
??? “Minority stockholder only” is not only. Don’t get distracted.
People have done worse just for half-a-million pesos.
HL is 6,400 hectares. At P120 per sqm, HL is over P7Billion.
1.1% of HL is a significant chunk of money.
rego, please don’t change my screen name to leytenean. the people in leyte have always used leytenian. it’s my respect to them and to my teachers… lol.
Sorry Leytenian…
Is having a lot of money enough assurance that one will not flout the law? I dont think so. Just look at Manny Villar.
Is coming from a good faily enough eneough assurance that one will not flout the law? I dont think so.
Noynoy Villar Gibo can flout the law but there is a justice system that will take of them if they do that.
Leytenian,
If what I heard is true, there is no more farmland or if ever there is still land left for cultivation, it is no longer big enough to distribute to the farmers. The Hacienda Luisita was developed into industrial, commercial and residential prime real estate with golf and country club, industrial and techno parks.
And how true is it that when it was bought by Jose Cojuangco Sr., the funds came from Central Bank of the Phils and GSIS (talaga naman ang GSIS ay palaging sawsawan ng mga utang ng mga privleged few) there was a condition that the land will be distributed to the farmers after 10 years. That was 1958.
Came the agrarian reform in 1989 and the Cojuangcos were able to avoid the distribution of the lands to the farmers by issuing stock options. Instead of land, they receved papers of ownership where they are entitled to dividends.
HL was bought for 16 million way back in 1958. Now it is valued at more than four hundred billion (?).
In simple accounting, without the operating profit, if there is any, the increase in equity is in the form of appraised value of the prime landholding.
Who is a simple farmer who would know when all he was after is a parcel of land?
of course the cat, a big land like that must be converted first to a different type of zoning. When land zoning had changed, the condition or promise to distribute the land among the farmers would no longer apply because the land was no longer zoned agricultural.
The stock option was a strategy. How would the uneducated know the actual share price of preferred or common stock and its P/E ratio? LOL.
In your view, was it reasonable for Ninoy Aquino to go back to Philippines when he knew that there was threat of him being dead?
To me it’s decision making issue and it runs in the blood. ciao
A Promise running in the blood…
a promise in 10 years? that’s a valid contract. the farmers had rendered their services.
Came the agrarian reform in 1989 and the Cojuangcos were able to avoid the distribution of the lands to the farmers by issuing stock options. Instead of land, they receved papers of ownership where they are entitled to dividends.
how much dividend? was it a fair value?.if not it was a crime. who were the names of the receiving farmers ? what was the name of the issuing corporation. was it registered in SEC? hahaha. the land has appreciated in value. hmmnn sounds very fishy to me. kawawa talaga ang pinoy. laging mauto -uto. it was probably just a paper money without value- the reason why many farmers were very angry and some end up dead?
mahilig pa naman mag promise si Noynoy na propoor daw siya?
leytenian,
the farmers should have taken accounting or finance. LOL.
From what I heard, the farmers did not receive dividends yet.
leytenian,
“In your view, was it reasonable for Ninoy Aquino to go back to Philippines when he knew that there was threat of him being dead?”
Is it reasonable for someone to stand in front of an oncoming train? No.
Is it reasonable for someone to risk his life for freedom?
leytenian,
My opinion is that, Ninoy was convinced that the price was too high to eliminate him. He must have thought that Marcos could not afford to make him a dead hero that may become the last straw to break the camel’s back. Besides, FVR was not the first to surround himself with international journalists for his protection, Ninoy was with some of them in the plane when they touched down in the airport. Who would have thought that the crime would be committed with all those cameras and videos recording the event?
I read from a book that Ninoy knew that Marcos was dying and he could not accept the scenario of having the other conjugal partner with the a very loyal military at her beck and call to lead the nation.
I personally believe that there are some people who are like fish which when taken out from its natural habitat would not enjoy a luxurious swim even in a big aquarium.
It can be interpreted as a selfish act rejecting the concept that risk is measurable. It maybe during Cory’s time that the reorganization of Hacienda Luisita had taken place in lull. The farmers who earlier have tendered their services should have been paid fairly. Assuming that Noynoy holds a minority share of HL, the value of his share can absolutely be distributed to the poor. AS MB said, Kris and Noynoy can afford without the Hacienda Luisita. To me that’s sincerely pro-poor if he had done so. Being pro-poor must be measurable and visible to the filipino people. What did Noynoy do in the Senate to facilitate the process of HL’s disagreement? Nothing ? maybe because Noynoy is never a true pro-poor.
If this is the model of personality that the filipino people believe can get them out of poverty, good luck Philippines. There’s no skillfulness nor ability that I see fit to the job description of an honest president. Honesty is not just about not stealing money. The practice of promising equity to labored and tired workers without consideration of its validity is a true definition of Corrupt Practices, Elitism and Conflict of Interest. Honesty is to take action to support the farmers. damn yellow. lol
correction
you mean to say that when Ninoy died, the citizens of the country gained freedom? Where’s freedom from Hacienda Luisita. Freedom is the human value, or situation, to act according to one’s will without being held up by the power of others but you don’t die for that.
So you also mean to say that Noynoy’s presidency will give freedom to this country? If that is your logic that Ninoy was reasonable to risk his life for freedom , what freedom are we talking about then. What if Marcos was the oncoming train?
Leytenian, in one blog you’re trying to pin the blame for the Ampatuan massacre on Mangudadatu, and now you’re trying to pin the blame for Ninoy’s assassination on Ninoy himself! If poor decision-making runs in the Aquino blood, as u say, then I would argue that u r indulging in all sorts of mental gymnastics yourself just to acquit Gibo of any responsibility! In both cases, u r blaming the victims, and ignore that none of them pulled the actual trigger.
We all go into dangerous situations all the time, and sometimes we make mistakes, that’s all. Would u have people simply not move and live and dare? Of course Ninoy wanted to go home to the Philippines, and of course Mangudadatu’s wife wanted to fight for her husband’s right to run. Following your argument, we should also render Gandhi and Martin Luther King and JFK culpable for their own respective deaths.
Come ON. I know u like Gibo, but there’s no need to go into absolute denial here…
And do I take it that Gibo is now for land reform, judging by your contributions on how the Luisita issue might be addressed? R u sure Gibo and his family would agree?
Lila,
I didn’t blame the Mangungundatu for the Ampatuan massacre. I did say toto CAN be contributory before the fact.
On JFK, Gandhi and King , I didn’t say they were culpable for their death. That’s an allegation. I only said about Ninoy that it was a decision making issue. But I see your point.On JFK, Gandhi and King , they are internationally known personalities. They are brand names. Ask the mexican, the korean, the german and maybe the rest of the world if they know Ninoy?
A shy and introverted type of guy running the country? PR is crucial in growth. In my reality, I can function with or without a good president. I am only concern with my fellow filipinos. Noynoy is not the one, Lila. :(
No, please note that I said “following your argument,” meaning pursuing its logic. I wasn’t quoting u; I was inferring from what u had written, leytenian.
It doesn’t matter if they r national or international personalities. My point is that all r pubic figures. Benazir Bhutto would be a good national example as well. I was using those examples for ease of communication. The point is that public figures often go into risky situations all the time. That is still no reason to expect them to stop what they r doing. And it is certainly no reason to blame the victim…!
As for Noynoy being shy, he’s certainly much less so now. I have nothing to gain or lose either way — like u, I’m just worried about the poor. So far, all I see from Gibo is greater military spending, limited accountability, no programs for redistribution of wealth, no real family planning, no moral leadership and more of the same. Gibo’s not the one either, dear. :-(
Lila,
point well taken. let me go back a bit to Ninoy’s limited history. Have you thought of Ninoy’s going back to the Philippines was for the purpose of protecting the interest of Hacienda Luisita?
and the cat had read somewhere:
which storyline was the most reasonable?
What did Cory do during her term to return the favor to the poor? Did she honor even just 25% of HL be distributed to the poor as promised or as a condition to compensate the tired farmers? HL is as big as Makati and Pasig combined.
Result of good governance to a poor country must be measurable. A zero dividend paid to the farmers is not measurable and yet nobody cares…
what’s the point of disturbing Cory Aquino from the grave???
She’s DEAD and NOT running for election.
Leytenian, it’s going to take more than a quote from the Ca t citing a book she had read somewhere to convince me or anyone else, I’m afraid. It’s always good to cite your sources and hers so we can all judge if they’re even empirical to begin with. After all, anyone can say anything: I could write in my blog that the earth is rectangular — so what? As with all things, u need to provide evidence when u make a claim.
On the face of it, it strikes me as an absurd claim. Ninoy and Cory didn’t HAVE to go against Marcos — they could have easily played ball if Luisita was their main concern. And Ninoy was not perfect, but he certainly changed after his lengthy detention. Judging by his letters to his children while in Fort Bonifacio (have u even read them?), it’s pretty clear that Ninoy genuinely loved the Philippines. Whatever side you happen to be on, you have to grant him at least that.
okay Lila, I can understand where you coming from. On Ninoy, i was sentimental when he died for his country at that time I was a child. I was naive and didn’t follow thru nor become a fan of his name. At this present time, I like to make my decision apart from my emotion. hope you understand as well….
pls try reading my reply to your question about national security ( starting at the gate)
I must have missed the memo that elections are somehow not popularity contests.
Well, they are. Otherwise elections would not be needed. The fact that you garner the most votes means you are the most popular.
How and why you are popular is another matter.
But we are PAST that. 9 supposedly qualified people have submitted their candidacies..and so we must choose from this bunch.
YOu can be an Idealist and vote for Perlas. He has a very good platform, an honest man, untainted by scandal but you will be pragmatic and admit that this man has no chance in hell of ever winning.
You can vote for Jamby, Acosta, JC delos Imbecile and you are stupid.
You can vote for Villanueva because you belong to his personality cult.
You can vote for Gibo because you want more of GMA. There must be a course in Harvard about selective application of the law.
Vote Erap for Experience.
Or decide to vote for Manny or AbNoy.
The intellectuals can blah blah about ‘oh we lack political maturity ekla chuva chuva’ but what can you do? We are an overpopulated country and the supposedly ‘politically mature’ highly educated average FV tambay is a tiny minority.
It’s Money v. AbNoy. You can hate both of them but that’s what the restaurant is serving. Deal with it.
ah so kahit sino na lang basta popular pwedeng kumandidato at pwedeng maging presidente , never mind kung obvious na obvious hindi nila kayang patakbuhin ang bansa , never mind kung hindi sila handa, never mind kung wala sila vison para sa ikaaangat ng bansa, never mind kung hindi talaga sila qualified at competent. Never mind kung dinanas natin kay Erap yan. Just never mind.
Eh di alisin na natin ang campaign period. Di na kailanganng busisisn ang mga kandidato. Botohan na lang kaagad. Mas makakatipid pa tayo ng husto. Kung sino ang popular eh di panalo na.
Sorry, Nash I but I really cannot suscribe to that idea. Lets just agree to disagree.
no, my point is 10 candidates filed their candidacy.
10.
not 49,9000,000.
We’re passed who ‘should’ be a candidate. We’re passed who is competent or not.
In a restaurant, if you don’t like what’s in the menu, you can go look for another one.
Leytenian,
Never mind kung standard bearer siya ni Gloria. Never mind kung ano ang dinanas natin kay Gloria.
Ay sorry the comment was for Rego pala. Sorry I got confused. It’s hard to tell them apart kasi.
Memo to Planet Earth:
The following people ARE DEAD and not running for any elective post May 2010:
Ninoy Aquino
Corazon Aquino
Ferdinand Marcos
nashman,
the following peipole are dead and still running for office
1. Gibo Teodoro
2. Erap Estrada
3. Dick Gordon
4, Eddie Villanueva
5. Nick Perlas
6, Jc de los Reyes
7. Jamby Madrigal
8. Acosta