Plotters, potential putschists and the pugnacious should stand down. Losers and others, listen up. From a divisive democratic exercise what tinderbox tempests turn and twist in teapots should settle as Bostonian tea parties that fall prey to reckless adventurism may negate what fate and fortune has laid out for the next presidency.
For the next president the economic the economy seems to be headed for a quick upswing. Never mind the cacophony from the congressional inquisition cum workshop cum flea circus cum comedy night and incidentally, cum canvassing body. Never mind also insidious innuendo foreboding tax increases due to the fiscal improprieties under Gloria Arroyo. The near-horizon landscape is quickly blooming for a presidential honeymoon period.
Benigno Aquino III catalyzes optimism and resurrects our self-respect. It is after all a rare chance when planets align and a second opportunity presents itself to right wrongs.
Call it the Aquino honeymoon of a hundred days, or call it fate’s welcome mat. The signs listed hereunder are all good.
Last week Goldman Sachs announced that the economy was recovering. Despite warnings of higher taxes which impede recovery, the global declaration augurs well for Aquino. Other rating agencies cannot be far behind and the chorus serves as an invitation for much-needed foreign investment, the taming of interest rates and the reduction in the cost of foreign capital.
Moreover, within weeks of the new president’s installation, enough to alleviate power tariffs and long blackouts, long prayed-for rains should bring hydroelectric plants to adequate capacities in place of the more expensive fossil-fired facilities now running
Timely ASEAN influences have also kicked in. Note recent gas pump price reductions. Other than the effects of fuel mixes, the junking of the heavy-handed 3% oil import tax Arroyo inflicted rationalizes fuel pricing. Regional competitive influences compelled its abolition thus benefiting power generators, the transport industry and an economy dependent on imported fuels.
Gloss domestic product (GDP) registered a growth of 7.3% for the first quarter following frontloaded tax payments and an average inflation rate of 4.3%. Resulting more from external factors than Arroyo’s policies, 7.3% is from the global economic recovery that jumpstarts manufacturing productivity (hence lower inflation), increases remittances from external economies recovering on the sly and increases consumer spending from that. Add also increased business confidence from the much-anticipated exit of Gloria Arroyo.
On that aspect, Aquino’s anti-corruption agenda is on target given the employment and economic welfare corruption denies and business gains lost to greed in high places.
7.3% is one of the highest considering virtual stagnancy coming from 2009’s 0.80%. Applying Okun’s Law (an economic rule of thumb) on employment generation, 7.3% should create approximately twice as much employment as previous periods under Arroyo.
The typical observation that Arroyo’s numbers do not translate to perceivable welfare should not apply to Aquino. Dissipated election uncertainties and resurgent confidence impact positively. Note how Standard Chartered now sees a year-end growth rate of 5.9% from 3.3%.
If 7.3% were a fluke, at 3.3% under Aquino, employment growth would still be positive (around 1.10%) compared to Arroyo’s historic underemployment rate of close to 20% (up from 18.2% from 2009) and her hunger index of one out every four.
Note the quarterbacking prospects on the monetary front. The European debt crisis has so far been a Black Swan event that keeps Fed rates down despite pressures to increase it towards year-end as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Shalom Bernanke has maintained unusually low overnight lending rates from 0% to 0.25% as a crisis recovery measure.
Other than greater access to investment capital, needless to say this has a positive indirect impact on us. Domestic rates will likewise remain low for now.
Recently monetary authorities rejected tenders of 3.914 % pegging policy rates at 3.75% for the benchmark 91-day Treasury bill. A low rate regime allows domestic producers greater access to credit and the continued strength of the peso (which is likely to stay strong for the next 100 days) rewards the critical agriculture sector where inputs cost less and margins widen.
Moreover, recovery is likewise seen to be unimpeded by predatory taxation as Aquino would likely not introduce new tax burdens in his first 100 days.
The interest rate scenario coupled with Aquino’s taxation prospects combine to temper inflation. Prospects are bright and noisemakers should stand down. We have presidential legitimacy.
Now all Aquino has to sweat are the small stuff – where to stay, when to quit smoking and a creeping rodent infestation in Batasan Hills.
Popularity: 2% [?]
The rodent infestation is a stampede.
Rodents? I always thought those are crocs.
Hold your horses. Mar Roxas and Butch Abad will rain on your parade.
Mar Roxas is not standing down and will continue fishing for null votes.
Besides, Mar Roxas claims there was cheating, ergo, Noynoy is like Gloria and cheated and thus is an illegitimate president.
“Now all Aquino has to sweat are the small stuff –”
If your tongue is in your cheek, I hope the bite did not hurt.
Big stuff includes runamuck population growth, rampant mediocrity in offices staffed with cousins and classmates instead of skill, and a chronic backlog of 300,000 cases in Judiciary that makes the courts a morass of muddy molasses murky with mordant malarkey. Not to mention, no place for the people to go to right wrongs . . .
Joe
Joe Am: Didn’t you see the commandment? Stand down!! Stand down you you you and others… nabobs of negativism!
Join the holding hands singing kumbaya for Noynoy because soon at a baranggay near you :
… twice as much employment as previous periods under Arroyo.
The typical observation that Arroyo’s numbers do not translate to perceivable welfare should not apply to Aquino. … under Aquino growth would still be positive (around 1.10%) compared to Arroyo’s historic underemployment rate of close to 20% (up from 18.2% from 2009) and her hunger index of one out every four.
Celebrate now, because right around the corner before summer 2012 will be jobs-jobs-jobs kumbaya!!!
hehehe, mike h, didn’t I warned you already be careful with what you wished for, it might just materialized and leave you in despair, :).
Noisemakers should stand down… don’cha worry, the voices of the rich, the very rich, the very very rich and the nabobs who campaigned for Noynoy all have access to Noynoy’s ears. There will be a review of THE LIST, there will be checking it twice, there will be finding out who were naughty, who were nice.
hey, bert… the nabobs, they will always be with you.
what Pilipinas needs… to lessen the pagpag people. Down with 33!
The nabobs, they can take care of themselves. Down with 33!
Mike H,
My relentlessly negative attack was not aimed at Mr. Aquino, for whom I stand down in expectation that he will do some forthright and determined good things, but for that malcontent Dean, who keeps using his brain to invigorate us with facts and reason and today, optimism. The nerve . . .
100 days it is . . .
oh… I didn’t recognize the gust of optimism, I felt disoriented.
I’ll go for 50 kumbaya. And if I don’t get any more lightheaded… will go for 100. That, alone — gust of optimism — says elections2010 had done very well for Pinas. And the sooner the Noynoy anti-corruption locomotive chalks up the body-count, yeh-bah!!
MikeH,
Disoriented? Seems like you’re allergic too of the electoral pollen which left your favorite capybara not only biting the dust but cowering in Bastusan cave.
what’chu talking about, willis? rising assets and Goldman Sachs Standard Chartered Bank good-news prognostications lift my boat, so jiggy by me to know that you are partying joining hands kumbaya about GMA leaving Malacanang and Noynoy next president. I ain’t stopping you, the stand-down is cool by me; 50 days is right around the corner.
And I am eager-beaver for day 100. I wait with bated breath for when Pinas newspapers and blogosphere would be ablaze with stories of who have been snagged into jail by Noynoy anti-corruption drive against smugglers and tax-evaders. October 2010 will be yeh-bah! kumbaya fers-shyuur.
MikeH,
You’re not familiar with capybara? It’s the world’s largest rodent. Standing on its hind legs, it could be as tall as 4 feet 9 inches and could weigh as much as 120 pounds.
If it’s got a mole I think I could spot one in Arayat.
tranquil,
That is about the funnniest thing I have read in the past lifetime. Capybara it is.
Congratulations, Noy.
All eyes of the Filipino are now on you and on what you will do, especially for the first 100 days.
And no, you’re not only seen on the Evening and Late Night Newscasts.
You’re also on The Buzz.
“Now all Aquino has to sweat are the small stuff…”
Hmmm,honeymoon alright…until the next disaster, natural or man-made, comes a calling.
In the Philippines, the buck always find its way in Malacanang.
I will give Noynoy Aquino the benefit of the doubt. It remains to be seen: how he will solve the problems of the nation. No one in his right mind would like to become a President of this God forsaken country. We have these problems:
1. Widespread graft and corruption. It’s a way of life already of Filipinos. Look at our leaders politicians. Most of them are corrupt.
2. Political polarization. Everybody wants to become the leader. All wants to become tribal leader. Not followers. So, the Ins versus the Outs will continue. Even after the election.
3. Food production. We import rice, sugar and other basic commodities.
4. Massive poverty and unemployment. Educated people seek employment abroad as OFWs. Because there are no good pays in most of the jobs. The brains that would have developed the country are exported to other countries. Most of the OFWs are underpaid, underemployed and mistreated.
5. No comprehensive plans for Noynoy Aquino to tackle such problems. He will try to solve the problems, by hit or miss; or by trials and errors.
6. Not even a plan for energy sufficiency. Except, they are initiating to buy nuclear reactors to power the 7,000 islands of our country. Maybe, they will buy 7,000 nuclear reactors.
After the festivities of election victory is over. You take the helm of the nation. Here comes the psychophants who want to feather their own nests. The people who want a payback for their efforts. And her
sister Kris Aquino, whispering to his ears: this he must do. Consequently, I wish him luck. Honestly, I don’t want to be in his shoes. It’s a lousy job.
It’s easy to see you’re not keen on more challenging jobs. But, don’t worry, Mario, you won’t be in his shoes even if you want to, :).
I’ve run corporations in the U.S. They were vibrant corporations. And, I was up to the task. If you have the carabao sense: you will understand what I am trying to point at. If you are a Noynoy Aquino apologist. Then, he may give you a favored position in his government. For defending him, and licking the sole of his shoes…I will not degrade myself to that level. Dude, do you have any self respect?
Manong Dean,
As much as I want to put in my pensee, you got me bridled.
Let us know when we can fire our canons. LOL…!
Honeymoon? I doubt it! The so called Presidential honeymoon is to be enjoyed with the public. But the anNOYNOY has anNOYed the public even before he was officially proclaimed President-elect and taken the Oath…! On things pertaining to the Oath and who will give it… BTW is his first annoying act! Then came the issue on where to live, now General Bangit and those suspicious candidates for cabinet seats!
For all her faults and shortcomings, Mrs Arroyo started to annoy us when she took her oath from CJ Davide and hit a crescendo with “Hello Garci” But she then was President.
Now if the blurbs are right, anNOYNOY plans to stay at “Bahay Pangarap”. I once attended a function there and I don’t think it is secure enough for a President to regularly stay there. The name itself may well represent what the BSA III presidency is all about, a dream!
“Hello Garci”, an ‘annoyance’? Where’s your sense of proportion?
WHAAAT? Honeymoon to be enjoyed with the public? Why always the public? Look what Mrs. Arroyo did during this kind of honeymoon with the public…the public was screwed!
how does one get OFFICIALLY proclaimed as president-elect? ["i now officially declare you president-elect of this land, pending congressional approval, of course]. what’s so annoying about not choosing to live in malacanang–it’s not as if the public would be inconvenienced if he chooses not to, for as long as there is an office to maintain. if it worked for cory, why can’t it work for subsequent presidents? [for the heck of us, move the capital to bohol for all we all care!] so what if you’ve attended a function in bahay pangarap–we’re you privilege to have been accorded the same security cordon provided only to presidents? and what of general bangit? it’s not as if the military has no pool of other worthy leaders to succeed him? who’s he to annoy the public anyway? bangit who? now, now, who’s he again–am getting annoyed not recalling who this bangit na iyong nabanggit. what of suspicious candidates for cabinet seats–are they alien forms of high security details that each of us need have a say regarding their appointments? ba’t di na lang kasi isinama sa halalan?. so what’s with all these didigeroo impress-me doovalacky furphies from you, mate?
The problem is that you forget the concept of accountability in a democracy. And may dare I say that Kevin Rudd and company have more sense of what that is that Noynoy Aquino!
Noynoy Aquino was elected by votes not anointed by the Holy Ghost!
At Bahay Pangarap, Mr Ramos was there. I know what PSG security requires. The President will have to cross the river by barge. Now YOU DO KNOW how much riskier it is to go by water.
accounting is what we people should do, only after the deeds are performed. perhaps you meant vigilance, since, after all, the pieces of this new cabinet are still being sawed, screwed, nailed, and hammered. there may be ugly faces in there not up to your liking, but if noy finds substance in them, afford him the chance to make this work. this is what we call the honeymoon stage. not for the public to enjoy but for noy to get a go-feel for what may or may not work in this short window, getting a breather from public criticism and attacks from opposition during this period. kevin rudd and company had their fill of this grace period. go google if you don’t buy my claim. who’s disputing accounting as a concept of democracy–not noy, with his walang korap slogan. certainly, those who elected him realize this biggest come-on to choose him, pleasing of course the holy ghost. now, just give him a break, will you. he hasn’t even began the honeymoon proper, and you’re nagging cedaselessly till kingdom come.
Blackshama,
Pangarap is okay but as president elect Noynoy Aquino pointed out, there may be a problem about a president living in a military base. You see Malacanang Park is the HQ of the PSG.
Dean’s request to stand down is nonsense. This is my opinion, tranquil can disagree with me.
Only the pipitsugin are standing down. The big guns, they actually stood up and started jumping up and down even more to get attention.
Evidence: European Union ambassadors telling Noynoy for him to work harder about “Jonas Burgos disappearance”, protecting the media from kidnapping and men-in-motorcycles, for noynoy administration to better discipline Pilipinas police, military, CAFGU’s, private armies; even Germany saying a commercial message — “…pay up — Fraport isn’t a closed subject yet”. And France lobbying, expressing interest in landing the nuclear-power-plant contracts despite South Korea being favored by the Cojuangcos.
I betcha the USA ambassador is pushing Noynoy to do at least as well as GMA with regards Mindanao development and law-and-order and probably reminding Noynoy that monetary aid from USA Millenium Challenge Corporation is tied to smugglers and tax-evaders getting jailed.
Another evidence? The CBCP ain’t giving Noynoy a honeymoon period. The CBCP ain’t relenting on pushing Noynoy around with regards a special place in Noynoy governance for Roman Catholic anti-condom advocacy.
Sorry, Dean… standing down is not practical. I encourage the Erap followers to push just as hard now on the incoming administration for better schools and poverty alleviation. Not fair if Noynoy does a GMA where “Poverty Alleviation” takes a backseat to big business interests.
cvj should continue to make noise that Pilipinas push FPJ’s “rice-self-sufficiency” advocacy. And to file charges — garcification.
Sionil Jose already beat on the drums — solve the Ninoy murder! — as he said “jail the corrupt”. At least file the charges, hopefully a few of the smugglers and tax-evaders do enter jail before 2010 ends.
Bert and tranquil should continue to make noise (Abe Margallo can contribute to this effort) that Noynoy should expedite filing charges against GMA to get the soon-to-be-an-ex-president in jail. You voted Noy to do something; hold his feet to the fire. Tell him to do something!!! To assume that “Malacanang knows what it is doing. Malacanang is looking after my interests.” is probably not a wise thing to do.
The stand down request was for plotters and putschists. Not for FV bloggers, who are impossible to request for “soothing and calming” moments.
For the FV community, by all means, lock and load, then fire away. “Rat-ratan” in the language of the gunpowder-brained. Never mind that the target is the issue of “Balay Pangarap” or rats and rodents at Batasan Hills.
The article was a response to the noise one hears from keeping an ear close to the ground. As we speak, a lot of the publicity agents of both losing and winning politicians continue to thump, others jigging a randance. Onviously, their contracts included post-election periods.
Hopefully it’s just coffee shop talk around Manila where newsmen don’t have anything better to do.
Dean
Dean,
I am convinced MikeH is deficient in reading comprehension. His writing style is also littered with chopsuey and incoherence.
And to think that he’s a UP grad kuno.
Pagpasensyahan mo na.
Apparently MikeH eats, sleeps, and wakes up with spin and propaganda on his mind.
All in the service of Her Excellency, the adorable Capybara.
If the Filipinos tend to compromise from day to day living, then wealth
is a meaninglessor just an ill forgotten term without the concept of value. If us Filipinos, know that the purpose of our action is to satisfy one’s needs and wants, then the material wealth of two different individuals (let alone abstract entities such as the other 7,000 archipelagic we are neighboring with…) cannot tell us much about the satisfaction of their need and wants. Desire to wish and needs are subjective, unknown, and immeasurable by an outside observer[plotters and putschists.]Filipinos as an example, should be careful when interpreting empirical observations related to the quantity of goods and services produced in an economy. This is not to say that the Gross Domestic Product cannot tell us anything about a region. It simply means that GDP cannot tell us much about some of the most important economic concepts, such as value and economic achievement.
As per what tranquil stated, to what is a “capybara“
This could have an effect on the Rice Grain cultivation, and on its harvesting time. We don’t want them[this rodent] to be running around and destroying our[GDP] rice harvest, or do we…!
Oh yeah, rodent are well known for collecting things for safe keeping. Its only obvious.
Your a very hard cookie to swallow, manong Dean.
It is interesting that only two months ago, many Pinoys were hyperventilating about Oplan-this or Failure-that and that GMA will be hunkering down for many more months of stay in Malacanang.
More Power to the Noynoy Administration!!!
I hope by 2011 the court-case “People against GMA : garcification” is filed.
Distribution as well as growth matters seriously in a country like the Philippines.
Despite the fact that Goldman points to the growth prospects of the country, (the country will be issuing sovereign debt for the next six years that may approach Php 2 trillion+)underwriters of the world rejoice!
Most of the new debt will be placed simply to cover operating costs for the country and not put any meaningful public good in place.
Goldmans perspective is mainly on the yearly bottom line for its stockholders. The country’s managers have a different mission. Long term sustainable economic development that will help develop and improve Philippine society.
In that respect the debt induced 7% growth rate is meaningless. One must separate what is good for the fiancial marekts and what is good for the cuntry.
Why are folks still sounding so unhappy?
Noynoy becomes president in a few days so why unhappy?
Happy days for sure will come!!!