So far the initial Pinoy scientist response to the Ondoy (Ketsana) disaster is more of trying to find out how the massive flooding of Metro Manila happened rather than if hydrological, weather, climate or hazards models failed or succeded to predict the events of Sept 26, 2009. Of all the science agencies of the government that is in the forefront of the disaster. PAGASA is the one that has to face the media and later when all is dry, the Congress.
Tanny Cruz has become the public face of PAGASA with regards to the disaster. He is a PhD student in meteorology at UP but due to his many responsibilities, he hasn’t defended his thesis. Many of the meteorologists in PAGASA were trained at UP and by the World Meteorological Organization through their short term courses and scholarships. The University of the Philippines is the only higher education provider that has a meteorology program in the Philippines and one of the few in ASEAN.
Much talk has been made in the media and the blogosphere about the Doppler radars that could have foretold the intensity of rainfall during that day. Tanny Cruz has publicly said that 5 tenders for the radar have been bidded out and that each radar is built according to specifications by the national weather bureau. The radars are not off the rack and it takes a year to make from order, delivery to installation. Dr Prisco Nilo of PAGASA had originally targeted December 2009 for operation but as Ondoy had it, it is a bit late. Also you need trained personnel to man and interpret the radar screen. In fact when PAGASA starts operating the radars at least two new PhDs are needed to interpret and make the forecasts. The need for meteorology PhDs is so acute and we have made arrangements with universities in Taiwan and Japan to fast track the training of our PhDs. Unfortunately we don’t have interested people even if Taiwan is providing a very attractive scholarship program.
One problem is that meteorology requires intensive math preparation and our engineering and science programs don’t provide the needed math and physics background. (It is not just meteorology but the host of science disciplines. I have a big problem with the numeracy of many a graduate student I have at UP) Another problem is that working at PAGASA means a government paycheck. It is no secret that some meteorologists have left PAGASA for shipping companies that could pay them 500-1000 USD per forecast. The weather is big money to shipping companies and their insurers!
With Doppler radars it would be feasible to forecast rainfall intensity but as a PAGASA scientist told me during our meeting last Monday, it is good for three to six hours at most and works well at smaller scales (like forecasting how much rain would fall on Quezon City and in Makati). It is simply ridiculous to use the radars to forecast rainfall intensity for the whole of Luzon or the Philippines as many would like it. The media according to the scientist is spin doctoring the issue to make it appear that the radar is a “crystal ball” on how the weather works. We need other methods of forecasting to make sense of the weather. B esides I was told, that if we had the radar operating on Sept 26, the whole of the Metro would have been forecasted with high rainfall intensity two to three hours before the rain fell. The question remains “Would Metro Manila residents have had enough time to evacuate in 2 to 3 hours?”
The answer is likely a resounding “no”. In the 2005 Katrina disaster in Louisiana, even a day wasn’t enough. The time it takes a storm to pass through the Philippines from its nursery area in the Philippine Sea is four days to a week. That is enough time and PAGASA’s satellite pics should be good enough as Tanny Cruz gently insists to the media.
Some criticism has been levelled at the scientists for failing to warn the public (We understand the frustration and angst). This is simply untrue. Landscape planners even in the 1960s and 1970s have warned about building on Marikina river floodplains. Some have predicted that the Manggahan Floodway may have a limited life span. The reports were commissioned by the World Bank and during the Marcos years by the Ministry of Human Settlements. How the reports were used by government in policy making and application is another question. Our scientists know that government is likely to junk their recommendations if these won’t get the votes! Only a few local governments have successfully used scientific input for policy formulation but only after a major environmental disaster. But even then succeeding administrations forget.
As for Ondoy’s flooding, a University of the Philippines geography professor had modelled flooding intensity in Manila in 2004-2005 from the Spanish time to the present. Floods are a hazard in Manila and areas that were ”sinkable” during Rizal’s time are still today. During Rizal’s time, no one built permanently in those areas. But she says that one factor that has worsened the problem is that our waterways are no longer considered arteries for transport (hence the need to keep them dredged and clear of obstruction) but as storm drains. She suggests we recover the original “Taga-ilog” use for the esteros and rivers and we may solve a big chunk of the flood problem. We have floods in Metro Manila since we have become too much “Taga-kalye”!
Since her study was funded by the Europeans in partnership with our government, she sent her results to the appropriate agencies. I wonder if the heads of these agencies ever read it!
We scientists find an opportunity to perfect and refine our environmental models as a result of the disaster. This is our job. We submit our findings to the appropriate government agency who has the responsibility to manage the disaster response. The NGOs can do their work by advocating the necessary response but with consideration of the scientific data.
What we scientists find disconcerting is that the public, government, NGOs and media blame “climate change”. This is unfortunate since climate (which always changes) can never be blamed. What we can blame is ourselves and how much we have changed the imemdiate environment without thinking of the consequences and possibility of adaptation. Also climate change is a convenient scapegoat. It can deceive us of what the real problem is. We still have mitigation mentality when adaptation may be a better and cheaper alternative. But mitigation does attract the cash! Just read what the Pinoy environmentalist NGOs say. Pera pera lang ‘yan!
Popularity: 2% [?]
I think the cause of the Ondoy flooding disaster is the massive urbanization especially in the plains and mountains of Rizal. The sizes of waterways became smaller while the soil that used to absorb the rainfall were turned to concrete pavements of subdivisions. Forests were gone.
We are all technical people. We understand each other. Meteorology
is still not an exact science. Doppler Radars, Satellite Images of
weather patterns, etc…are just a few of the improvements. The
Planet Earth is not yet fully understood. The fact is: We have destroyed the rejuvenation and renewal cycles of this Planet Earth.
A freshman college chemistry student would understand if a chemical
reaction. Or a system is in Equilibrium. Elements or chemical compounds on the left side of the equation followed by two arrow signs( one going to the products of reation; another going back to the reactants). Then, at the right side are the products of the reaction. The system will remain at rest. Unbless, it is disturbed. By introducing an element or compound on the left or right side of the equation.
This Planet Earth was in the State of Equilibrium. We introduced too
much Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. So, it is now disturbed.
The Planet Earth needs renewing. So, we have to grit our teeth and bear the consequenses.
very interesting, blackshama. oo nga, the climate change excuse makes it seem like it’s out of our hands. when actually climate change is partly a result of the way we have, the world has, mindlessly drastically altered our environment over the last fifty years. “adaptation” sounds really good.
But though the night is cloudy,
There still a light that shines for me;
Shines until tomorrow. Let it be!
Sir Paul McCartney
The Beatles
Yeah, climate change became an easy scapegoat, leading the attention away from poor management, corruption and all those other things. Including that World Bank study from 1977 and the urban planners Blackshama cited who warned against putting houses in Marikina Valley. Or at least build a spillway from the Marikina Floodway to Manila Bay. No one heeded this and the city pays with lost lives and homes.
Still, nobody should blame PAGASA for these disasters or “failing to predict.” They’ve been giving predictions and warnings for years, and nobody listens. I wonder how people will wake up to the wake-up call of “Ondoy!”
Is it by one foot or by one meter? Has Philippine scientists computed by how much the Marikina or the Pasig would have risen because of the Magat Dam water release? [The Magat Dam reservoir has been releasing water at the rate of 1,931 cubic meters per second. Angat Dam also released water -- 500 cu meters per second.]
Magat Dam drains into the Cagayan River basin.
Global Warming, plus no Urban Planning, plus Squatters eveywhere, plus Pollution, plus Corruption snd Incompetence
equals ONDOY TRAGEDY and DISASTER! A tragic disaster just
waiting to happen. Now, it happened!
There seems to be a consensus about two things regarding flood-control for metro-Manila. The first one is to manage the health of the Pasig and Marikina rivers — silt-control plus management of the choke-points along its path. The other is “estero”-management — especially for the larger esteros.
Gawad-Kalinga and Rotarian-types “adopting” the esteros and the rivers would seem feasible. Of course, not now, but after elections-2010.
So you are one of the rare scientists who believes global warming is a hoax by . . ., ummm, by . . . vested interests so that they can . . . um, . . . uh, . . . . sell books?
The doppelers I’ve seen are easy to interpret. The blue means get the plants out onto the patio for a little natural water and the red means make sure the drainage ditch is not blocked. Three hours is enough time for a few people to get to aunt Suzie’s in Kaloocan, and would presumably keep Ms. Reyes outta my face. That woman is everywhere. Was she triplets?
Still, it would be wise if people were not allowed to build low-quality homes on river banks and muddy hillsides, and trash and concrete were not clogging arteries, and Manila’s ridiculous construction were routed to the Clark-Subic area.
Joe
1. Philippines is an Island arc, an archipelago formed by plate tectonics. The Country is within the pacific ring of fire or sometimes called circum-pacific seismic. It simply means the country is prone to superfreaky EARTHQUAKES and VOLCANIC activity.
2. Philippines is situated in the PATH OF TYPHOONS. Simply means superfreaky winds and floodings and lahar flows..
NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL have been done by the past and present leaders of the country and the people themselves (except for a few maybe)to ease the burden of this two major catastrophic natural forces
But we have a lot of input to further the havoc of this two major catastrophic natural forces:
1. Forest denudation
2. River polllution
3. Drainage clogging
4. Public funds mismanagement
5. Poor or no urban planning
6. Poor quality of education
7. Poor or no population management
8. Lack of leadership
9. Lack of patriotism
10.Stupidity
11.’Bahala na’ attitude
12.Lots of complacency
13.Lots of indifference
14.Lots of crab mentality
15.Mind boggling graft and corruption
Can we change things by more laws, more funds, new plans…I don’t think so…I think we need first to change is ourselves…I think the big question that everybody hates to deal with is do we really love this country?
We can’t go on like this…every time there’s a calamity..we watch..aid is late…no real emergency response, we ask for help, we ask the world to help us…we see a leader buying alcohol drink in a shop while his surroundings are scrambling for safety…what a country!
i mean circum-pacific seismic belt
I think we should go to our little corner of the world.
Lick our wounds. Sit and ponder: where did we fail?
If we point fingers. It will not help. Hang at Plaza
Miranda the people responsible? Better dust ourselves.
Get up and live again. Life goes on. With some stings
and kick on our butts from lesson learned!
Build those LEVEES and DIKES. Build a working Flood
Control System. Disperse industries. So, that people
will not overpopulate Metro Manila.
the problem of this mentality ” pera pera lang yan” is a typical brainless and careless assessment.
Why?
Does it cost too much to warn the public of the possibility of flash flooding? even 3 or 2 hours before. The people could have moved some stuff in higher ground and saved some rice to cook after. Does it cost too much to educate the people about rainfall and its consequences. Does it cost too much to implement emergency preparedness ” know what to do” in our school system?
There must be a stronger policy that every school and every community must have information about Typhoon categories and its consequences. No website of this kind nor school programs can be found on my research except proposals with no action. My god this country is ALWAYS visited by typhoon. It’s not like the ship will sink on its own unless it is sulpicio.
Im no longer on fire but turning COLD…
Ask the NGOs.
let’s move on further, what is the role of the department of health in times of calamity like this?
What is then the role of executives to oversee the overall pictures?
Just NGO’s?
Each exectuive department has a role.. not only NGO’s. If we have to manage a country, we have to gather all resources to govern. Who’s job description is to oversee that every department’s policy will arrive to a common goal?
Why just ask the NGO? Looking at the problem from the top, there must be a stronger policy for every organizations to arrive at a common goal.
Does it cost too much to ask the church to provide information about BASIC NEEDS after a typhoon? This can be incorporated during religious group meetings even just once a month or six months every year.
Does it cost too much for every school to provide a written -one page education about consequences of a typhoon? Does it cost too much for every PTA meeting to review such BASIC needs requirement after a storm?
Most of the donated goods are not to build and fix the issue but to provide the people with food and shelter. Same basic needs before a storm..
TV and other radio network can easily provide warnings and make people prepare for their basic needs.
Yes, We need a stronger policymaking but with a weak institutions and corrupt officials, trust me no need for RH bill, the filipinos will die of NATURE-L cause.
Money is not the issue here. The issue here is of bad governance and poor judgement….
Abolish government for now. The national government that is. That would make everyone dependent on their local governments.
We should all stop depending on our national government for long term solutions. It has always starved for funds and operates on a cash budgeting accounting process. (Hint: third world economy)
The government like all previous government before it can only dream of long term accrual in the budgeting process. Look at Japan. She is running a debt to GDP ratio of over 200%. She is borrowing from the surplus of its corporate and individual citizens. In a few years the U.S. itself will be running long term deficits that may come close to 100% of their GDP.
Why is everyone talking about all these first world solutions when the ship is still a banca.
Naturally when the Americans were running things like the good managers they have always been they put in long term solutions to urban design and planning.
When they left we reverted back to what we really were. Third World. Now how do we reverse the migration of these informal settlers as we continue to ravage and exploit the resource base of this country so China may be able to modernize and industrialize?
What about Manila doing a Beijing — permits needed before Chinese citizens can move into Beijing. Or Manila doing a Hugo Chavez — incentives given to motivate squatters to move out of national capital area.
Pardon my class bias on the one hand and my political bias on the other.
First the class bias.
If people – who are the have-nots – in our Great Cultural Divide do not have to inhabit rivers, creeks, along the foot of bridges, along railroad trucks, under flyovers or footbridges, or practically every open public spaces – then disaster of Ondoy’s proportion could have been prevented.
Second the political bias.
Disasters always trace its source at the doorstep of the Palace. As long as the officialdom does nothing with the inputs provided by our scientists such as perhaps, blackshama, along policy lines, disasters of unseen magnitude will always occur.
As long as the government allows the wanton, mindless, and unthinking conversion of lands into residential or industrial zones resulting in the loss of mountains, forests, and wreak havoc to an ideal state of econological balance, then, disasters are just 2 to three hours of visit.
Finally, is it not immoral for a President of this damned Republic of the Philippines to have to announce with intimidation against those who just might use those cash donations for selfish vested interest and therefore would prescribe that all such cash donations or contributions from foreign governments or private donors be coursed only through the DSWD and she will again be its own czarina?
Officers of the Philippine Navy understand their meteorology a little bit and perhaps, it can be the best recruitment for our next wave of scientists if UP cannot anymore produce seasoned meteorologists. I should know as once a naval officer of the whole damned Philippine Navy.
@Primer
Don’t forget the PAF officers. But they won’t do meteorology but go commercial!
The National government should have mobilized all of its local constituents to alert the public, private entities and its own officials. Storms in the country are historically in a pattern- seasonal. Before the season, all barangay kapitans, all the mayors and all public officials in higher places must have a program for educating the people. All private corporations must have its own rules and regulations on what to do reminding its employees for emergency measures. Religious groups, the department of education and other organizations should also follow the same policy. There must be a basic requirement for everybody on how much food to save, whom or where to relocate and so on…. Meron bang policy na ganyan sa atin? if so, has it been implemented? or everybody puts the blame to Mang Juan living in squatters?
Does it really cost too much to implement awareness, preparedness and emergency measures thru education and word of mouth? This policy can easily create local employment for the many unemployed.
This is too basic and yet ignored…
Hoy…..
Speaking of landscape planners or urban planners or whatever.
Bakit nga ba walang nakikinig ke Palafox????
ok sabihin natin na eventually mapasa ang land use act, ano ang gagawin??????
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1370&dat=19960705&id=42UVAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0goEAAAAIBAJ&pg=4460,737252
Demolish all those structures near the water ways, di lang squatters yan kasali na nag factories,commercial establishments,subdivisions,etc.
With a topsy turvy anything goes zoning the only way to solve this is if we turn back the clock.
=================================
Preemptive evacuation?
paano??? ayaw naman magsialisan.
nangyari nato dati di ba nag evacuate tapos wala naman palang bagyong dumating .
Methinks Better safe than sorry .
Pero sabi nga nila pag gusto pwedeng pwede pag ayaw laging may dahilan.
To those people who refuse to evacuate, there are two options
1. By military command especially when storm signals are strong
2. They can stay or die.
The second option require education. Most people do not evacuate because they don’t understand the consequences.
In Florida,, category 3 or 4 is mandatory evacuation. If people do not evacuate, after the storm they can be very difficult to locate or access to the area is impossible. Second, most insurance companies will not pay life insurance if one dies from not following the law.
Most Pinoys don’t have insurance.
Of course in financial sense…. insurance can be a guarantee of being able to see family and friends. This may be applicable to third world countries especially Philippines. Intrinsic value versus opportunity cost?
I don’t.
of course in financial sense… but insurance is not just about money to protect or to save wealth for family. It’s about peace of mind. Insurance can be a guarantee that parents are alive to care for their children. Insurance can also be a guarantee that the father, who is a tricycle driver and bread winner of the family can be saved to care for his family. The concept is applicable to Philippines. Insurance therefore is insuring the safety of the people to make sure the burden of caring for the ones who are left behind will not result to national burden. Overall, its the country’s peace of mind….
blackshama and Joe,
I am confused by so many things but these “scares” about global warming and climate change really take the cake.
Ok, we have this heavy rains, the floodings, the tsunamis, the earthquakes and the vulcan eruptions and other natural calamities as well, so what?
The usual culprits to blame being mentioned are the extensive use of fossil fuel, for one, that is causing this global warming/climate change.
I am a great believer in science, which, by the way, influenced my being also an “evolutionist” rather than a “creationist”, heheh, but heavy rains, floodings, tsunamis, earthquakes and vulcan eruptions and other natural calamities and such phenomenon as climate change were way, way, way back even before the advent of the use of fossil fuel.
Global warming? What’s cooking?
Global warming science is big money. Evidence to the contrary is being ignored because there are so many vested interests and business being built on a global warming premise. In fact, that is my current interest right now is carbon offsets and carbon trading.
From the National Post
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/10/03/lawrence-solomon-the-end-is-near.aspx
http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=2060870
Rosa,
If global warming is just, well, seasonal, and people are prepared for calamity, what is the loss? If, however, the accelerated rising of the seas and loss of ice shelf portends calamity, what is the price of doing nothing?
Joe
Yes, global warming is big money. Lots of money being invested in “green” technology to the point of being ridiculous. Lots of money in form of grants being invested to prove the global warming theory. Been digging into this global warming thing for some years now. I’m no scientist, but arguments by climate skeptics makes more sense to me than arguments by people like Al Gore.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TqqWJugXzs
http://www.aproundtable.org/tps30info/globalwarmup.html
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/
Joe I am not saying that we should be apathetic. All I’m saying is that for good science, we should not just be accepting of what is pronounced as truth by authorities. Just as scientists have proven that the data where the UN report on global warming that was espoused by Al Gore is found to be a hoax, or that the ice pack is actually expanding, that the world is actually expected to cool in the next decade, that there is a recent study in Oregon suggesting that the earth might be entering into a period of a mini-ice age. that solar radiation, earths precession or rotation, natural phenomen plays the more significant role in global warming etc. A lot of scientists who formerly backed global warming are now changing their tunes. It has been reported that Al Gore is now a multi-millionaire because of all this hype. My interest is to sincerely understand more about this and see if there is a business that one can start in the Phil. which can qualify for carbon offsets as well as employ people, get rid of air pollution (which I am taking a grad course on right now, and of course make BIG profits (capitalism is good while taking care of the environment is the mantra).
Rosa,
Yes, I understand. I read Michael Crichton’s “State of Fear”, which footnotes a lot of the fallacies. I mean, if you can’t trust the author of Jurassic Park, who can you trust? Interesting, though. He wants to sell books, too, and is probably richer than Al Gore, so I guess all who write are intellectual prostitutes first and trustworthy second.
Still, I feel much more comfortable with my home on the hillside than my home on the beach, much more comfortable with the onrushing development of green technology than the wild-eyed sucking of oil from the earth, and much more comfortable with people walking with heads up looking forward than those walking backward, looking down.
There are also those who argue most persuasively that we are heading into an ice age because all the smoke being emitted by places like the Philippines is blocking the sunshine. So burn baby burn . . . the Philippines is already doing its constructive part, no need to do anything more . . .
Now if that ocean water would just stop rising . . . and violent storms would lay off for awhile . . . and the great Los Angeles drought would end so my daughters have lots of cool, clean water to romp in . . . maybe my peace of mind would return . . .
Oh, yes, and if we would stop breeding like rats and chopping down all those pretty green forests and stocking the ocean with plastics and watching our nuclear plants piling high with waste that no one can get rid of . . . and engendering economic catastrophes through blind greed and hatching killer-flu epidemics and putting poisons into the food stream and choking our babies with poorly made toys . . . and having our homes pillaged, our daughters raped or sold into the flesh markets and our lives threatened . . . and getting into nuclear bomb face-offs with psychonuts like that Iranian Hitler and the North Korean sociopath . . . or having our government partying whilst millions of our people hunt for the next meal of rice and salt . . .
Other than that, it is indeed a happy, joyful planet full of good cheer and hope. Up with ice!!! Down with scientists!!! Cheers!!!
Joe
Whether we believe in global warming or not, we still need to find and shift to alternative sources of energy. The key word here is renewable hence wind, solar, bio-energy are all important since the carbon based energy is finite and at this point, it is getting harder and harder to find or exploit. Also, supply end efficiency and improvements and conservation such as replacing incandescent with flourescent lighting or using more efficient combustion processes are all effective approaches that not only limit CO2 emissions but also prevents air pollution. In terms of CO2, instead of disposing it, the more useful way would be to use it to enhance oil production so that instead of 30-40% recovery, we can go as high as 60 to 70 or even 80%. Since time immemorial, we had floods, typhoons, ice age, period s of warm weather (they say that it was warmer during the medieval times than now), earthquakes,etc. The answer to that is that planet is dynamic and is forever in a cycle of building and destruction. This sounds like a geology lecture where pictures of subduction and creation of new land in the mid-ocean atlantic ridge are perfect examples. On our officials that have no compassion for our people, literally partying while the flood victims are using pieces of blackboards as blankets to keep warm and lining hours just to get a meagre scrap of food, I hope our people will vote intelligently come election time.
We are said to be the second in geothermal energy.
what is that ? Is that like the myth that the Philippines has been second only to japan in terms of economic growth circa 60s or when ever? And the myth that we are the texting capital of the planet.
maybe we are second because the sleeping giants are not into it yet.
instead of being a second dormant power in geothermal, why not grab the opportunity to fully optimize that energy source.O baka hanggang dyan na lang talaga?
We have other alternative energy souces like wind,solar.
What we don’t have is the money,the technology and the will to go alternative.
Going to carbon trading, maybe some of the oponents of carbon trading are against it for it lack of a proposal for investing in alternative energy technologies.
What is carbon trading when you don’t have alternatives, yes such alternatives exist but only when harnessed or used.
Rosa, have you read anything new about the progress of alternative energy technologies?
Gabby,
There is a trend for smaller companies who used to do everything from fundraising to attract investors to operations which is not the most efficient way to do business are now merging and consolidating which will give heft and resources to these newly formed companies to realize the potential of geothermal energy. Here in Canada, there is a proposal to use geothermal energy to warm up the water to at least 4 deg c before being fed to steam generators which will be used in mobilizing these bitumen to flow. As of alternatives, wind energy is getting more and more accepted and Alberta is certainly building more wind farms. Boone Pickens have bought sizeable lands to use for harnessing wind energy in the States. I heard windfarms in China. Also, they are growing bamboos there. A friend of my mine in US has invested in a tree farm in South America that is supposed to be used for carbon offsets/trading. My prof. is saying that nanotechnology will come in a big way towards helping these alternative energy sources. I have a brother in law who is an expert on theoretical quantum physics and he is part of a team that is currently working on a new form of energy which involves nanotechnology but he is mum about it everytime I ask. I do not have the time but I would like to read more on Germany solar techonologies since they have advanced it on a big way. On geothermal energy, I am thinking we should study what the Icelanders do since they have technologies that harness this energy which they use in their daily lives. Nuclear energy is coming back in a big way as a source of energy and China is building lots of reactors. Since we have a populous nation, I am wondering if anyone has studied on how to get bio-energy from domestic waste. That was our project way back in Saint Lous University days when we studied how to generate bio-gas from a mining community’s domestic waste modelled after a big agricultural business that employs this method (RFM?). They have found gas hydrates off the coast of Japan and of course Canada. Is there anyone searching for it on our coastlines since If I remember right Marianas Trench is the deepest trench in the world. You would think there would be gas hydrates which are methane that is compressed there? Why can’t we not plant bamboos since not only will it generate oxygen but also a source of livelihood for handicrafts, food, raw material for textile, housing etc, and can be used for carbon trading (the price per ton of CO2 is apparently increasing. The thing is this tree grows fast. If Filipinos are more disciplined, in a controlled environment marijuana would be a good product since it can be used for medicine, textile, bio-mass source and they practically thrive unattended just like the weed. Carbon trading is unavoidable since the third world countries need time to adjust to a more stringent world environmental regulations that is spearheaded mainly by the first world. This will be the most anticipated showdown between China, India, and other third world countries versus the developed first world nations in the Copenhagen conference this coming December.
Thanks!
Your reply was to Gabby,but it was under my comment and it answered my questions.
Karl
Sorry Karl, I was doing my assigned homework while furiously typing in my computer. Must have read Gabby’s comment prior to responding to your query. Google Lawrence Solomon and there are other similar articles he has written on global warming.
Will do Rosa.
Thanks Again.
Politics and floods( from Efren L. Danao of Manila Times).
Political demolition job!
Pinas politics is up-close-and-personal hand-to-hand combat. Four days ago I think it was the Inquirer which was taking shots at the Villars for giving away plastic bags of food stuff. The plastic bags had the Villar name on them.
Woe to the candidate who does not have a MSM in his pocket.
Media consultants are available to help.
Here is another Politics of Floods question.
If Malacanang finds a new source of P10Billion pesos for flood/irrigation control, should it be spent in Mindanao? for Nueva Ecija Pampanga rice fields? for Marikina/Pasig? for Camanava?
Should it be Go or No-Go? Has any of the candidates talked about Laiban Dam?
http://www.thepoc.net/component/content/article/181/2131-laiban-dam-too-high-a-price-for-water.html
Actually, above presented two questions — (1)where to spend next Ten-billion-pesos flood/irrigation project, and (2) what about Laiban?
——————–
Now here is a statistic : cost to relocate squatters is quite high, would you believe about P180,000 per family?
The Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council (HUDCC) had estimated the cost of resettling 40,000 families for the NorthRail project at P6.6 billion.
There are over 40K squatter-families along marikina, Pasig, Manggahan estuaries. To move them for Seven-billion pesos? That’s a lot of text-messages with an extra 5-centavo VAT.
UP n,
Then get that tax levied and move them to stable ground. Lives, money. One is priceless, the other just beads, ore, and paper.
Joe
maybe this could be a cost cutting measure:
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20091002-228060/Arroyo-offers-bahay-kubo-for-homeless
The bahay kubo is extremely environment friendly
Wouldn’t be surprised if the squatter-population along the major metro-Manila waterways exceeds 120,000 households. 40,000 is for Manggahan, alone. A 15-year-old Marikina census identified 23,000 squatter-households. Pasig? The bigger esteros?
120,000 households x P160,000/household = P19.2billion pesos. Four times the P5Billion CAMANAVA project.
Some problems may be so big that they are easy to ignore.
I just cannot imagine how a defense secretary in his right mind can announce with uncharacteristic bravado as a matter of policy that his department will not come to the rescue of those people who refuse to evacuate during their scheduled pre-emptive evacuation operations.
This is absurd.
Will Gibo just stare to the face people who are in need of rescue and just let them drown on floodwaters? Does he really mean just what he says in public as a presidential wannabe at that?
In the first place, did he as much as study the psychology of people having to leave their “humble kingdoms”? What about those little properties they have to leave – belongings, blankets, pillows, electric fan, stove, IDs, cedulas, little money?
Gimbo simply talks like any useless armchair bureaucrat who would just order people to leave their homes bringing with them just their lives? Soon after the floods, they would have nothing to go back to, nothing that they could have saved, nothing but the thought that they will be attended to with some relief goods and roof over their heads.
This is nonsense.
What adds insult to injury is instigating the president to officially declare the country under a state of national calamity. For what? To justify the release of calamity funds in all the local government units throughout the country – affected or not – by the supposed-to-be Supertyphoon Pepeng except that it hit land in Isabela or Cagayan and then left the country just as quick.
Shouldn’t the president now undertake to lift the declaration and return all monies that may have been released back to the treasury?
THIS IS DAMN IMMORAL, DAMN IMMORAL to capitalize on disasters to siphon off money from government coffers.
Me thinks that Doronilla on the Inquirer pointed out the reality. The NDCC and for that matter government is only a skeletal framework of what government is and what it can do. It is only on paper for the most part. The meat or the resources necessary are lacking.
Here we have the actual specter of the good intentions of many people coming to the aid of their fellow man but in another month all will be forgotten.
How do we reverse the migration process and roll back the clock. Not likely to happen.
Now that our dear president called for a relocation away from Marikina and the low-lying areas, would we see a major upheaval for Metro Manila residency? Would this be the death knell for Marikina and Rizal and surrounding areas?
It might see the growth of high-rise buildings in Marikina, the total eviction of squatters where they mushroom, the identification of bonafide Marikina residents, and an evolving attitude – Marikina for Marikenos policy.
In Rizal and surrounding areas especially Antipolo, time to change the leaders, overhaul both the city government and the provincial government and boot out the incompetents.
Half of the population of Antipolo are squatters – time to ‘disregard’ their votes and leave Antipolo to the Antipolenos who can work, can pay their taxes, and can buy basic commodities.
The poor should be ‘removed’ from the face of this ‘earth’, quite a matter of speaking.
JAG,
I do not normally read the Inquirer. These are what I normally read – Daily Tribune, Manila Times and Malaya. Hence, I don’t have to know what Doronilla has to say.
The country needs government housing for the poor in highrises like hongkong and singapore but they must have a certain amount of income to qualify. Minimum wage of at least 2 income per family can afford the rent on a studio type. If there are 4 incomes, then they can move to a bigger studio. This will clean up the streets. Where’s the people’s tax?
Development should no longer allow subdivision and individual homes because this type of development takes all the land and trees, create more roads and more sewer arteries. Highrises that can withstand the strength of a strong typhoon is the way to go for Philippines. People in their community-subdivision should oppose any development for this type of housing. WE have to preserve flood plains. then Clean the squatters area….
The should build these public housing high-rises housing in Calamba or in Meycauayan where land is cheaper.
Here is one in India.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Apartmentingurgaon.JPG
Here is one in Hongkong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ChoiHungEstate-01.JPG
correct UP N, yes there must be a designated areas ..and to save more money, the administration must hire and form its own construction company instead of bidding it to private entities. Government housing must be build by government employees….
Then railways can be added around it build by the people not by contracting companies who may drain the people’s money… Vendors of materials can be directly bought from suppliers not from supply chain.
Employment in construction and development is a massive proposition that may return money to government thru income taxes… The money will circulate among the public. We have to go back to basic and the bayanihan spirit. Pinoy must build for the people not because some rich private contractors are conspiring against. But this view must be seen from the top officials , accepting the fact that they are indeed a public servant not the other way around.
Further , around the growth area, private entities can compete and build enterprise according to land use and zoning…. all the time and from now.
On second thought, a more sensible approach may be:
(1) build high-rise public-housing in calamba; move squatters from Paranaque, Manggahan, Cainta to the area;
(2) build medium-rise housing in cleared-out Paranaque slums area; sell to middle class at market-value; ensure space for parks;
(3) build high-rise public housing in Valenzuela; move squatters from Tondo; Quezon City to the high-rise;
(4) use cleared-out Quezon City and Tondo land for medium-middle-class housing, parks, and commercial development.
yup sounds like a good plan…
But a political question is this. If the government finds P30Billion pesos, should this be spent on (1) for schools, roads and other facilities in Mindanao,(2) greater-manila public housing high rises, (3) irrigation and flood control projects in Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija?
And should the government again raise VAT?
Has any of the presidentiables mention their tax-policies?
What does Erap say? Gibo? Villar? Noynoy?
Is there one who says “… we will spend only within our means, and “sorry na lang” to projects that there is no money for”.
good question UP N. But I need to see financial statements , its projected outcome and its projected return on investment.
Since we are poor, I would focus on money return. the end result such as return of money back ( income tax ) to government thru employment from spending the 30B. All can be done at once. PHilippines must be managed as one with one strong policy all across the country with slight changes to accommodate tradition, beliefs and attitude of the local people. But laws must be uniform like a policy and procedure of any giant corporation. The concept of managing is about return on investment. In public Management, the idea of return on investment is to return it to the people. There should be no profit made to benefit officials.
I don’t know why most of them have forgotten their roles as PUBLIC servants. What is wrong without educational system. Why is the product like people have no ethics. The people is of low quality managing the country….. Well of course, maybe the rich really don’t study hard in an ethical sense..
the national government must also be TRANSPARENT of every public projects, its BREAKDOWN of costs, list of people who are responsible. This can be done thru national government website… 30B ? of what? details please…This way, OFW who are experts and trained overseas can bring in their talents for free to review and assess. It is also a good way of encouraging participative type of democracy.
There must be a strong policy between employment growth and government housing. Therefore, private entities who can create plenty of employment must also coordinate on how to house their employees. An employee with original family from squatter may move to the higher ground. The movement creates awareness and motivation.. kasi ingitira ang mga pinoy kahit dito sa america… ( insecure and weak)
Also the city of Manila and all of Luzon needs more recreational parks than housing subdivision. Same concept must be applied in the provinces. NDCC must be strict and calculate land area to be preserved for long term sustainability.
Do some ecological history to avoid costly mistakes. Think twice before buying real estate in places with names like
Batis, Tumana (old Tagalog for taniman), Salapan (salopan ng tubig), Pinagbuhatan (according to Pasig official history, this was the original site of the town, but due to floods, “binuhat nila lahat ng kanilang kabuhayan” and transferred to the present site near the church. Places with “pasong” and “sapa” in their name. Also places with aquatic biodiversity in their names like “buaya” “Kangkong”,
My favourite is “Pinagpatayang Buaya” in Quezon City. It sank in 6 feet of water when Ondoy dumped water last Sept 26 according to my student who lives there.
But what the heck. If you live in the Tagalog region then the whole place is flood prone. Taga-ilog ka! Might as well live on a ‘casco”!
there you go blackshama, thank you… To understand history and taking it at current time in economic sense is PUBLIC MANAGEMENT 101… No excuse.
Amsterdam, Holland is below sea level. But, no such floodings.
Because: (1) the city has Urban Planning. (2) Strong Levees
and Dikes were built to protect the city from floods. (3) there
is a workable Flood Control System in the city.
Same as New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. The Levees gave way
during the “Hurricane Katrina”. But, it is now rebuilt. All
we do is misappropraite Public Works funds for nonsense
Public Works projects. Because the Congressman is “malakas”
with those in power. Get Real People. Or we will all drown the
next time a strong typhoon hit us again!
I cite the case of Amsterdam, Holland. The City is below sea level.
There is no flooding, becasue: (1) the Dutch government and the city
administrators have a workable Urban Planning. (2) Strong LEVEES and
DIKES were built to protect the city. (3) there is a WORKABLE Flood
Control System in the city.
New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. has also LEVEES and DIKES. The levees
gave way during Huricane Katrina. But are now rebuilt. We have misappropriated Public Works Funds to nonsense Projects. Put them
on Idiot congressmen Pork Barrels. Because they are “malakas” to those in Power. I am praying that they will be drowned the next time we will be hit by a strong typhoon.
joe, you wrote: “If global warming is just, well, seasonal, and people are prepared for calamity, what is the loss? If, however, the accelerated rising of the seas and loss of ice shelf portends calamity, what is the price of doing nothing?” i’m guilty as hell about elbowing aside global warming as a factor in the recent mess caused by ondoy when i proposed to stop talking about and blaming global warming in my blog post at this link http://bit.ly/3Yhiz. global warming is certainly one of the significant factors in the recent ondoy catastrophe. the sins that can be attributed to many of our kababayans are far too many and too heavy as well. if not constrained to prove a point, i would say, that this green house phenomenon, the problem with our waterways, serious human error and killer public policies should really be dealt with, with equal vigor.
One of the nice things about “global warming” is that eventually, North America, China, and Europe will feel so guilty about their guilt that they will pony up millions of dollars in money to atone for their sins.
Pinas does not have to beg; but Pinas has to wait.
Where Pinas cannot wait, Pinas has to find ways to raise the billions
needed for the civil engineering projects.
UP n,
Consolidating responses to a couple of your notes here . . . and requesting your indulgence of my “know it all” style . . .
You ask good questions, indeed. So many needs, so (apparently) little money.
The Executive branch of Philippine government has never been run as a business, as far as I can tell. It has been run by housewives and gamblers, imposters and aristocrats.
A businessman would look at three things: (1) the sources of income: adjust revenue by taxing property at its fair rate (so that wealthy property owners stop living high off the backs of the poor; I am one, and my tax rates are embarrassingly low), stop the fee-based taxes for government services that cause government agencies to work against the best interest of the public because they are run as taxing agencies (customs) rather than supporting strategic interests (like building trading power), apply income taxes with discipline (it properly taxes wealth creation), and squeeze up VAT. (2) On the spending side, develop a national set of priorities and stop doling the money out to inconsequential local programs (here I go against the grain of many FV writers who favor more localized control), and (3) change the dynamics of Philippine management practices to a working CAREER concept that favors competency over personal patronage; personal patronage assures incompetence.
The spending priorities should look at improving the quality of life for the most people, safety and security, and infrastructure (including storm drainage and protections). Global warming defenses can be done stepwise, as it is a slow moving elephant; it does not have to break the treasury. Survey the cities and towns (height mapping), pass appropriate zoning ordinances that prevent building in potentially unsafe areas, and consider dike or relocation plans. The sooner the country starts, the easier the fiscal pain.
Piece of cake.
All that is missing is the will.
As for guilt about global warming, guilt is such a totally useless emotion. One should simply convert it to responsible behavior and get on with it. Plus there is no need for the US, or others, to feel guilty about the quality of life they have given their citizens, and others, around the globe. Just deal with the negatives forthrightly.
Joe
Joe,
Reading from your piece here, I’m salivating already for a paradise-like Philippines, oh, how I wish our laws allow Americans the likes of you to run for our president in the election and rest assured I’m going to vote for you.
Oh well, on the other hand, I guess we are fated to be run like hell by Filipinos rather than like heaven by Americans.
As for Global warming, Joe, just ask your most powerful government to pump more freon gas on those polar ice so it won’t melt else you’ll be climbing the highest mount of Biliran for safety and me my Mayon Volcano.
Bert,
Thanks for the vote, heh. I have always said the distance between paradise and catastrophe here is short, and it only takes a forthright manager, an executive, to get to paradise. I don’t know if people in charge lack this basic capability to organize or if they just get bogged down in the priority of favors, the culture of favors. Maybe a bit of both.
I just bought land at about 300 meters up, I would guess. I just hope the volcano that originated the hillside is no Pinatubo.
Joe
JoeAm: You are obviously a Democrat because you are ignoring the wisdom in keeping taxes as low as possible. To repeat the Republican line — the individual is a lot more intelligent than a baranggay captain, a city mayor or the resident of Malacanang in terms of how to spend his cash to his greatest benefit.
————–
I doubt that Erap nor Noynoy is a fiscal-conservative (“keep taxes to a minimum” platform). None of the presidentiables are of the “…keep the government’s hands out of my wallet”-mentality. But none of them will tell you if they will raise VAT to improve funding for hospitals and schools. Noynoy, however, did say “Marcos wealth”.
————–
There is one good thing that comes up with Pinas needing a lot of society-beneficial projects. Makes good fodder for campaign slogans!!! Pinas voters can look forward to good listening moments with the Villars, the Gibos, the Noynoys and the Erap-para-sa-mahirap doing their best to seduce and entertain (…with details on priorities and how projects get funded to be provided after they are in office).
But politics is local, so Erap campaign among Cebuanos will make little mention of Marikina river flood control.
===========
“Global warming” is not an issue for May-2010 except for Walden Bello/Liza Maza and those who need extra material for anti-USA anti-anti slogans.
UP n,
Astute observation. In the US, yes, I lean democratic, while having a good appreciation of free market capitalism. For the Philippines, I would favor a change in taxing philosophy, one that today seems to favor the rich, drub the middle class, and neglect the poor. I think fees are a disgusting form of taxation when they effectively ban the poor from police and justice and health and other critical services, and when they turn the notion of customs as a bureau that should be protecting Philippine wealth, to one that erodes it via nuisance fees (taxes) and burdensome paperwork.
I don’t know if I favor increasing taxes per se, as much as redistributing them: increasing them in places where wealth is created or is resident (income and property taxes). VAT is a “good” tax to me, as would be sin taxes. Frankly, for the Philippines, I fear I would favor a socialistic bent, one that “took over” PLDT and like-minded utilities that should be operating in the public good, but are exporting wealth from the Philippines.
I am not sure of the exact numbers, but it seems to me that PLDT exported about P 8 billion to its shareholders in Britain in 2008, while overseas workers such as yourself worked their asses off to send P 12 billion here in 2008.
There is something there that stinks, and it is not fish in Denmark.
Then there is the expense side, those overpayments for services to fit in the kickbacks.
So get expenses in order, then figure out what the tax rates should be. Given the debt that is piling up, increases may be needed to find long-term stability, and prepare better for storms, build infrastructure, etc.
You can’t fund things on a hope and a prayer.
Joe
Joe Am: You do know, right, than it will be the same cohort of people now in Malacanang who will be head-honchos of PLDT and Meralco should your idea come to pass that a “socialistic” government take over PLDT and like-minded utilities.
And if you are not too thrilled about the managerial abilities of Malacanang best-and-brightest, would you be okay about those utilities being run by the bright men and women of Pinas Congress?
They are not synonymous — “large-scale cronyism” and “…for the greater good” — but they sure have the sound of being close cousins, don’t they?
UP n,
Oh, all my “shoulds” are predicated on the bums being thrown out by an enlightened Filipino public, and rational, business-minded thinkers put in place. I recognize the small percentage likelihood of that occurring soon, but, still, hope rings eternal . . .
Joe
blackshama: Sir, when you say trained personnel to man and interpret the doppler radar screen, do you mean personnel with PhD degrees? I can’t imagine an equipment costing around 100 million pesos still needs a personnel with intensive Math and Physics background. Yes, I agree that proper interpretation of data is required, but I certainly believe that, a certified and experienced meteorologist or engineer can do that. Solving complex mathematical equations and algorithms intended for the PhDs are processed by the computer, isn’t it?
Irrelevant argument like this, has given me an impression that this “initial response” from Pinoy scientists is just a defensive posture to cover PAG-ASA’s failure to warn the public and to get away from media and public criticisms.
You need a scientist with a PhD to create the mathematical models needed for the forecasts. A computer can spew out numbers but making sense of the numbers requires a trained human brain. The science profession needs technicians (those with MSc) and scientists (those with PhDs) to make things work. PAGASA did not fail to warn the public BTW. It actually forecasted the path of the storm quite well.
Sir, you are perhaps refering to pre-Amado Pineda era when weather forecast technology was still in its infancy. With the advent of new technology, computer nowadays can create your mathematical model — user-friendly enough that even a fresh graduate of any engineering degree could analyze weather data more accurately. I have googled the site below and found out that there are really software systems that are designed to generate models that can be viewed on a desktop computer monitors and from there interpret weather disturbances.
http://www.eecradar.com/edge.html
BTW, I still recall, one newscaster asked a PAG-ASA meteorologist before Ondoy created the havoc.
Newscaster: “Mang ____, ano sa palagay nyo? Pwede kayang suspindihin muna ang opisina at huwag na munang pumasok kasi masyadong malalakas ang pagbuhos ng ulan.”
PAG-ASA meterologist: “Ah, alam mo M___ (name of the newscaster), huwag muna. Tignan muna natin ang galaw ng bagyo.”
What???
This is not the first time PAG-ASA was subjected to a storm of criticism. Last year, they insisted that a strong typhoon will land in Bicol defying international weather agencies that it will go up North. So, the poor Bicolanos put-up their best weather-proof defense but it ended up waiting for nothing. Northern Luzon was beaten to pulp literally.
Recall that PAGASA is sorely in need of scientists more than technicians.
Engineers are not trained to do meteorology or even environmental science without postgraduate qualifications in those disciplines. They have to do their masters and PhDs