There are five things which threaten the very existence of the Philippine state today.

First, the spiraling costs of food. Inability of people to buy food lead to great sociological anxieties which, if left unchecked, could result to more people resorting to violent means to resolve hunger. The rise of property-related petty crimes have shoot up, indicating there’s some attempts by people to release pent-up frustrations on their inability to resolve food-related costs.
Second, the economic uncertainties caused by global oil prices. Oil prices are skyrocketing to a level which more and more people are beginning to find very challenging.

Third, the brewing revolt in Mindanao. Hunger is beginning to affect even the more prosperous provinces in the region. The peace process has stalled. A steady trend of violence is beginning to unfold there. An uncanny alliance between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and a revitalized Abu Sayyaf has been reported. This indicates possible war preparations or an anticipation of an outbreak of hostilities between the Bangsamoro armies and the Philippine security agencies. A visit of the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff is proof enough that the situation there is getting volatile. If Mindanao suddenly turns into a flashpoint of Islamic militancy, then, as I wrote in NewPhilRevolution.blogspot.com, this could spillover to the entire ASEAN and affect regional security.

Fourth, decreasing foreign investments. There’s a slowdown of foreign investments due largely with government’s perceived attempt to intervene in private enterprises, such as Meralco. And the subtle effects of government graft and corruption.

Fifth, a rise in the undercurrent of dissent within Philippine security agencies. The security adviser will definitely not admit it, but more and more soldiers and policemen are grumbling due to unprofessionalism among the ranks and decreasing benefits promised by this administration.

All of these things are happening simultaneously. These events will definitely come to a convergence possibly in the middle of June or early July. By then, if there’s no social unrest or outbreak of dissent, government will find it quite impossible even to resolve this rising social tensions caused by its ineptitude in resolving structural problems.

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