It seems that the COMELEC and its citizen’s arm PPCRV have pulled a successful run of the first automated elections. SMARTMATIC has also despite some IT gurus have said before, succeeded in convincing all that their digital equipment and expertise worked.
Automation has resulted in something virtually unheard of in Pinoy electoral politics in the past. The leading but losing national candidates have conceded beginning with senatorial candidate Brig Gen. Danny Lim and the latest was presidential candidate Gibo Teodoro. Since this is a first, some of these candidates need some pointers in looking like statesman and gracious at the same time. Losing American presidential candidates are masters at this. A good example is John McCain. When I was in Australia, I recall losing PM Paul Keating conceding to Liberal Party leader John Howard. When Howard lost the election 12 years later, he conceded to Labor’s Kevin Rudd. The losing candidates were practiced in the concession speech. The speech has the usual formula 1) Concession, 2) Thanking supporters and die hards, 3) Congratulating and pledging support and cooperation for the winner. Since we are so unused to this, we have a number 4 which is largely unacceptable to Western electorates and this is 4) public griping or “sour grapes” (BTW my Brit friends say that the audible but lost out PM Gordon Brown has come close to this!)
But we can forgive our candidates. This is their first time. But there is one candidate that won’t concede is the subject of this blog post. It is no other than the Erap who as of this writing has 8.3 M votes compared to Noynoy’s 13.03 M!
I take this no concession stand as another showbiz stunt for the fans which should not really be taken that seriously. But before Noy fans exult, we have to have a non passionate look at how the voting trends are going. The second Eraption is a sign that we now we have a very clear division between the classes and something that may be eeerily similar to the Red Shirt and Yellow Shirt division in Thailand. While in Thailand the Red Shirts are largely from the provinces and the Yellows are more urban, in the Philippines the Erap fans (Red-Orange?!?) are of the poorer classes (urban and rural) and the Yellows (mainly urban). It took several years before the Reds and Yellows in Thailand went into political “trench warfare”. But the Thai situation is rather different in some respects to ours. Thaksin’s largesse have benefited the Red Shirts since they have Red tees and Red Crocs (I have seen this), but I doubt it if Erap’s largesse has given Orange Crocs to his fans.
This entrenching division in Pinoy society was exacerbated by no one else, but the Glory of the Second District of Pampanga, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
The second Eraption is significant since it is incontrovertible proof that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s claim of economic successes that has uplifted the poor is largely a farce. The second Eraption is in the process of sinking the SS Mar Roxas, which is the Surprise of this Election. While my relatives who voted and are wags would attribute this the “Korina factor”, I doubt it. Roxas despite spending time in the palengke with a padyak-padyak, never successfully shed off the elitist aura off him. This is the surprise since the Holy Trinity of survey firms never predicted this!
The loss of Villar is another unintended casualty. While Villar may have indeed risen from lower middle class to what he is now, the Pinoy electorate (elite and the poorer classes) are not yet comfortable with the idea of someone making good through hard work and investment savvy. The electorate is more comfy with a rich bloke identifying with the poor (whether this is real or just plain gimmickry). And this is not true for Erap alone but for Noynoy as well.
The second Eraption is also evidence of the irrelevancy of the Left and it’s ideology It’s candidates Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza are like twins at 24-25 places in the senatorial tally. The other moderate Lefty Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel is 13th place. But Baraquel was repackaged more as a centrist than leftist.
The silver lining in our more divided society is that Mr Benigno Simeon Aquino III will be accepted by all as the legitimately elected President of the Philippines. This is something that eluded Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo ever since becoming the Malacanang tenant. Mr Aquino will be unlike Thai PM Abhisit and even his mother Cory (who came into power through military coups although in the case of Mrs Aquino, it was failed one rescued by more than a million people).
Mr Aquino has to immediately deal with the problem of our deepening and entrenching class divisions which have been described by both Time and Newsweek as a problem of “having a growing underclass with an increasingly insensitive elite” This is something that his sainted mother failed to address and thus resulted in the corruption he wants to get rid of so we can take that straight way.
Now how will he deal with Erap pardoned with all rights reinstated and Gloria in Congress? How will he immediately implement the needed reforms or else we end up with another dose of Yellow tinged betrayal? We have to remind Noynoy that the straight way may be paved with good intentions but right into hell!
Popularity: 1% [?]
To improve GINI given an improved GDP, one has to raise taxes on the top earners to fund social programs for the bottomdwellers.
The sentence above clashes with Noynoy’s promise of “no new taxes” to the Makati Business Club. This is all the more reason for Noynoy to deliver ASAP on his promise to nail the smugglers/tax evadars and generate revenue sources for social programs by plugging the leaks.
And then, there is this option — no need to raise taxes on wages and salaries, the tax increase should be on dividend-income.
————
But first, Noynoy has to find a date to his inauguration ball.
?
He can always take sis Kris to the prom!
I think the voters are making a point they don’t like GMA… that’s why Erap surpassed Villar… the Villarroyo controversy having dawned or matured fully just before May 10. Binay’s rise still has to be exp;ained in a satisfactory way. It’s media’s fault they didn’t enough coverage to the man. If a nobody like Fujimori could beat an elite-supported Nobelisable in Peru, what more Binay. I believe it had a lot to do with his sorties and his projection on the stage, his humble demeanor and maka-masa looks. Not much black propaganda against him until very late in the day because they never gave him a chance.
The results are something altogether new to me because I believe it is the first honest election in my lifetime. Candidates must now take note and change focus in their campaigns. Look at Gordon. He campaign concentrated on media appearances instead of sorties. As well known as he is throughout the nation, he only got a pitiful half million.
Kay B gaganda ang B
Earlier I posited the 3C’s (Cory, Callus, and Chiz factors) that spelled a B victory in the VP slot.
I will add a fourth C…
B is a great Courter. He has the Batangueño’s brand of flattery and cajoling. B’s Tagalog is far better than Mar’s.
Lastly, a fifth one…
the Commercials. B’s TVC’s probably had a more lasting impression.
He had his share of sad narrative that clicked to the masses…a more believable one compared to the “swimmer” and definitely better than the “padyak” ads. Remember the fire that gutted their house?*
Campaign slogans are probably hits too.
“Ganito kami sa Makati, ganito sana sa buong bayan.”
“Sa mga nangungunang pagka-Vice President, si Binay lang ang ginagawa na ang pinapangako pa lang ng iba.”
To top it all, B’s campaign jingle leaves a LSS mark in one’s head. This I read at mlq3’s blog (to which I added a few lines):
—–
*Leaving him with a skin color associated with the working class?
If I may add but this is probably a long shot…for her name starts with “K.”
The Coring factor. The gal is such a turn-off.
She could’ve been our “First Lady.” Now, even “Second Lady” she may not be…
Blackshama,
Very interesting read. I think Mr. Aquino has a legitimacy that has long been lacking at the helm. There is no question that he won fairly, and he has the opportunity to bridge all classes and simply do a good, pragmatic job. I think Filipinos deserve to be pleased with this election; first class all the way. There are micro-losers I suppose, and Erap will have to stop pulling a Gordon and own up to reality one of these days. But there is one big macro-winner, the Philippines.
I think Villar shot himself in the foot twice near the end: the fake psychological report, an attempt to sling really low-down mud, and his Mommy make a scene, which took away his manly credibility.
On to constructive acts.
Joe
Congress, as usual, is the sanctuary of scumbugs.
Imelda sitting side by side with Gloria.
Booty and the beast.
or
Booty and the b*tch.
Noynoy-administration lawyers won’t have to look far when they are ready with subpoenas for closure on “Marcos wealth” and “GMA corruption”.
Noynoy should review how GMA admin was able to send Ping Lacson fleeing. Bad guys and gals you can’t throw into jail should at least get exiled, what do you think?
You mean, Mike H, you want Noynoy to corrupt the justice system and appoint government agency heads with people that hate Marcos and PGMA? Are you so anti-Noynoy that you want Noynoy to do that?
mister dude bert… Noynoy promised to go after Marcos wealth.
Connections lang kasi ni lacson mga bata nya sa police. Hidi sya embedded na oligarch, wala syang pamilya, sya lang talaga.
bert: So whatcha think… how much Marcos wealth will Noynoy recover by December 2011?
As for GMA — my perception is this — GMA not only active but in fact even more powerful in Congress when December 2011 arrives. [Of course, an argument against this is pork barrel. Starting soon, Noynoy has control of pork barrel which he can use to create a subservient Congress.]
mike h, you’re always referring to the past tense, heheh. too much gma in your head, always forgetting that Noynoy is not gma, :).
MikeH,
Why do I have the gut feel that you are actually a close relative of Mike A?
Hahaha. I’m only self-taught in blogging so I can’t help you about that gut feel question of yours, tranquil.
You’re not getting it MikeH. How’s your uncle Jose Pidal?
Baraquel had a poor campaign.
With money short, she decided she’d rather do a pointless dancing advert when she could have pushed for her social equality program.
Northern Luzon and CAR are agricultural regions and she could have done well had she focused on social reform. Instead, we had that bewildering ‘magandang laban’ f&ck up of an advert.
Kill her ad agency now.
Baraquel did not do really bad. She number 13. If you see the winning senators, they are all old names and will have no problem with name recall. For Baraquel to get the number 13 just right after the popular names like ,revilla, estrada, defensor, drilon, cayetano, marcos, recto, osmena, guingona, lapid and bove other old names like Roco, pimentel de venecia biazon, is not really bad at all!
I looked at the numbers for CAR, my region, she is kulelat.
That is really bad for what would have been a great socialist. She can just wait to be appointed, raise her profile a bit, and then make sure Chiz Escudero does not become president.
I looked at the numbers for CAR, my region, she is ku le lat.
That is really bad for what would have been a great socialist. She can just wait to be appointed, raise her profile a bit, and then make sure Chiz Escudero does not become president.
I would agree. 13 isn’t bad for a “commie”!
commie, blackshama? how well do you know her to hurl such a label coming from a mollusk who pretends to be a scientist who knows his facts?
Risa is a socialist but she is certainly not a commie.
And I wouldn’t mind exploring her as a possible future president.
She’s number One on my presidentiables for 2016.
Well Inodoro ni Emile doesn’t know what quotes mean!
I share your concern. As i wrote previously, I would have preferred to have the two good oligarchs (Aquino and Roxas) work for a soft landing. Just as well, a second place finish by Erap and Binay as VP may help focus the winning Oligarch’s agenda on the problem of inequality.
I nominate Abe Margallo as Economic Planning Secretary.
I second your nomination.
I third the nomination.
going once, going twice…. “If anybody has any objections speak now or forever hold your peace”.
Sold!!! Maybe Lila can bring Abe Margallo nomination to Noynoy inner circle. And let the competition begin!
Hahaha. I’m only self-taught in economics and therefore I am under-qualified to be an economic planning secretary.
Well, actually, I have been pondering of going home since Edwin Lacierda, one of our pioneering bloggers before FV and now Noynoy’s campaign spokesman, mentioned about it some two years ago.
But now that my children have finished college, I seriously would like to serve. And if ever given the opportunity, I’d rather make use of the expertise I am much more comfortable with – that of being a litigation lawyer.
So, if for instance the new administration is looking for someone to join a team who would give the Joc Joc Bolante’s, those smugglers on Noynoy’s list, or the Arroyo’s for that matter their day of judicial reckoning that Noynoy has promised during the campaign, I’d be honored to be considered for such a task.
That’s good you mentioned that, Abe. Maybe it can be done. Let’s wait first for farther development, we’ll see.
Noynoy is staffing up to deliver on two campaign promises — “Marcos wealth” and “Garcification cum corruption”. If you personally Dinky Soliman, she can put your resume on the top of the pile. They want fair-minded people who are particularly motivated about the Marcos legacy and GMA and her husband.
Less travel – Noynoy targets are easy to find. GMA, Imelda, BongBong will be in the hallowed halls of Pilipinas Batasan.
Abe,
Your self-learned wisdom in economics makes a lot more sense than that of the PhD guru with a horrible mole on her smirking face or that Romulo Neri skunk.
To me, this should be top-of-list for Malacanang 2010-2016 economic programs. GMA did GDP; GMA failed GINI.
The program should be get it DOWN FROM 33%. And if Noynoy is less motivated, then I want Congress to bully their way to bring it DOWN FROM 33%
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Noynoy will want a subservient Congress. Noynoy should work for a subservient Congress. Reason — Noynoy needs subservient Congressmen to expeditiously pass the many new laws that are needed to progress his agendas.
On the other hand, things change from the point of view of Pinoy citizens. Pinoy farmers will want their representatives to work for farmer initiatives, not hacendero initiatives. When the citizens want it and the Supreme Court says that what the citizens want is constitutional, then Malacanang has to go against the wishes of Noynoy’s relatives of Hacienda Luisita.
The poor of Payatas and in the many pockets of poverty all over the place? These citizens will want more funds to support social services, even if it means raising taxes on dividends or even wages above P750,000 a year.Pinoy citizens will want a Congress that look after citizenry interests, and if it means going against the Makati Business Club, then so be it, Noynoy’s promises to MBC notwithstanding.
Ganoon lang iyon. Vox populi, sabi nga ni Abe Margallo.
33%. Over 33% of Filipinos are struggling with less than a dollar a day. Get that number down. DOWN FROM 33%
hey, tranquil: do you know what I am talking about with the 33%, or you still spinning around in this chase of Jose Pidal nephews?
MikeH,
Your band-aid economics, it seems, is culled straight from Gloria’s PhD. You are proposing to increase taxes to shoot down poverty incidence? Brilliant.
both abe and cvj would have their thoughts on taxes to reduce poverty incidence.
Hugo Chavez, yes??? No??
Here is a simple model linkage between taxes and poverty-reduction:
1. Is education a poverty-reduction engine? Yes? No?
2. Source of money to pay per-fessers and janitors at Ateneo, La Salle, Assumption. Taxes???? No? Yes?
3. Source of money to pay perfessers and janitors at UP, PUP, other state colleges. Taxes? Yes? No?
4. Source of money for public elem and high schools. Taxes? Yes? no?
Would increased funding for public schools translate into poverty reduction? Yes? No?
Last time I checked, LaSalle and Ateneo are private educational institutions. Why in Gloria’s name would you want to subsidize them with public money?
Malabo ka tiyong. Better make up your mind what it is that you want.
If the premise of Noynoy Aquino’s Presidency is chasing on Marcos Wealth. He is just wasting his time. He should devote his time on fixing the country’s economy. Previous administrations have been chasing this Marcos Wealth. All they find is a few real estates, few dollars and cents. Then, they plunder the country’s treasury, for themselves also. There are more pressing problems to attend to. Than, chasing an imaginary wealth. Like the Spanish Adventures, trying to find a city called “El Dorado”, the City of Gold. The Marcos Wealth may never existed at all. But, to hide their incompetence in solving our problems. They have to keep our minds and imaginations preoccupied.
Hopefully, Erap will retire.
9M votes is enough to repair his broken ego. (Yung lang naman yata pakay niya, to gauge if he still had the magic pull).
I also suspect that Erap had the best cost per voter campaign. Last time Nielsen released data, Dick Gordon was spending more than him for adverts.
Besides, mukhang hindi naman mahirap kausapin si Erap. Noynoy can give him a ceremonial post.
I was given a fake mustache and a wrist band. Encouraging me to vote for him. “Erap para sa mahihirap”. He has good political tricks that tickles the Filipinos. He can work as a consultant in the future for Candidates running for President. Maybe Chiz Escudero, Bongbong Marcos, Binay, and so forth are looking for it.
Blackshama,
“The second Eraption is a sign that we now we have a very clear division between the classes …. in the Philippines the Erap fans (Red-Orange?!?) are of the poorer classes (urban and rural) and the Yellows (mainly urban).”
But Noynoy consistently polled higher in the DE classes than Erap and Villar.
But how can you account for the 8 M votes?
Blackshama,
the elction results and the pre-election polls are not far apart. pre-poll findings showed that de was pretty much a toss up for erap aquino and villar although approaching may 10 there were indications that villar was losing his de to erap. but there is no way that noynoy will lead by that much if he did not get as much or more of the de votes than erap
The DE classes were divided among Villar, Erap, and Noynoy. Wow, we have such a population for DEs…
Some of my neighbors wanted Erap to win. According to them, he will be the best one to take revenge on Gloria. “Isa daw malaking sampal.” hehe. They even questioned and laughed at Gordon and Gibo supportes (ouch).
I didn’t know that this was up already until today…
The TV5-SWS 2010 EXIT POLL:
CLASS ABC
Aquino 48%
Estrada 19% (E-V 30%, -18)
Villar 11%
CLASS D
Aquino 44%
Estrada 27% (E-V 41%, -3)
Villar 14%
CLASS E
Aquino 36%
Estrada 32% (E-V 48%, +12)
Villar 16%
—–
E-V stands for Estrada-Villar combined percentages, if one considers the bulk of the anti-Aquino forces
now, baycas, indeed this is the more SCIENTIFIC way to do analysis. not hollow accounting, couched in terms like “Clear division”, where the basis for claim is based on one’s haka-haka.
Aquino dominated all socioeconomic classes with the least plus margin on E.
Some say Villar shaved off votes from Estrada, and possibly vice-versa owing to their same color: “Tapusin ang kahirapan” and “Para sa mahirap,” respectively. If we add their votes and if we consider that the Presidency is about TRUST, the Classes ABCD trust Aquino (“Walang mahirap kung walang korap”) more than E-V while Class E trusts E-V more than Aquino.
Primary color yellow trumps the secondary color orange.
Elections can be peaceful. We have demontrated it. We have grown mature as a nation. We expect the elected to behave the same way.
A dozen people are dead due to election related violence.
There is NO WAY you can call that a peaceful election.
Election related deaths drop from 181 in the 2007 midterm elections and 166 deaths in 2004.
18 deaths sound like a good improvement, but I know we can do better.
Election related/politically motivated killings in
Japan: 0
Australia: 0
USA: 0
UK: 0
To paraphrase President Gibo Teodoro – “Never settle for 2nd best”
It was still very violent and scary in Abra, Maguindanao, Basilan, even within and around NCR.
It’s an improvement but it’s not good enough.
Maguindanao massacre is not election related violence???
good point, Reuben.
And convicting the Ampatuan now belongs to the Noynoy administration.
mike, the ampatuans think they now belong to the aquino admin. make that spin right.
Jojo Binay who always shows up at UP High alumni homecomings, is another UP High product who is likely to win one of the two highest national offices. The others are the Great Apo Ferdie, the Tabako FVR, Our only real PM Cesar Virata. Chiz (class of 1985) may still make it if he gets that silly grin of his face!
You think Chiz ‘Boy Laway’ Escudero will happily slide to VP in 2016?
Chiz and Binay slugging it out for president in 2016? Hehehe, double smile from classmate blackshama. Walang talo.
No prophet is accepted in his high school class.
This election saw the revival of not only Mr Estrada but the Marcoses and the continuation of the Arroyos in power. Their revitalisation comes from maintaining their grip on local electorates. The IRAs automatically appropriated to local government units have provided a means for local officials to become independent of national patronage. Binay’s case is exemplary. The Estradas’ hold on San Juan and Bongbong’s hold on Ilocos Norte allowed them to keep themselves afloat both financially and politically after suffering losses at the national stage.
With the Aquino II presidency we will see whether the movement that he led can translate into new politics at the local level. As Ben Kerkvliet concluded in his book From Marcos to Aquino, the first Aquino presidency failed to deliver on that since there was no real ideology driving the movement beyond replacing Marcos. The disconnect between national and local politics means that the old oligarchs are able to lick their wounds while preparing for their comeback. In 2016, we may very well see a redux with Binay and Jinggoy Estrada gunning for the No. 1 and 2 posts.
Cusp,
Cory’s administration went beyond replacing Marcos to restoring democracy and civil liberties. She succeeded.
The populist Erap Estrada, banking on his movie star appeal won the votes. Same as other candidates. The Marcoses are politically resurrected. With Bongbong Marcos winning, Imelda Marcos winning and Imee Marcos winning. You cannot bury defeated popular politicians. They will come back from the dead. Congrats to the winner. Maybe, someday Bongbong Marcos will become our President. Who knows, the Filipinos votes mostly using their emotions and nostalgia.
My solution is for the government problem of additional income source would be to subsidize Japanese language or even Mandarin lessons since Japan’s demographics will go from bad to worse in the coming years and they would need workers. Japan’s median age is now 45:1 but it is projected to go to 59:1 by 2064. Any economic cooperation or trade agreement with Japan and similarly China would bode well for our young population who will graduate one day. The church has done their part of ensuring that the majority of Filipinos will always be young. A PanAsia trade and economic cooperation with Asia’s increasing wealth and population is almost an idea that is sure to come.
rosa: Mandarin and Chinese to be included in Pilipinas high school curriculum makes sense for students thinking to get a job overseas.
Pilipinas will also need to create more jobs in Pilipinas for Filipinos. I can see why this is difficult, but I still am disappointed that I never really heard any of the candidates express some program to create more jobs in Pilipinas.
You will never develop the country by becoming “tsimays” and “tsimoys” in foreign countries, as we are doing now. The more we depend on other countries for jobs. The more we are losing Brains for our country’s development. The solution is to create jobs here, not find jobs abroad!
Who said they will be tsimays? Mario, as China or other Asian tigers industrialize, they will need engineers, accountants and other professionals. Since the program of job creation is still in its infancy, we need to place this people who will be graduating in the next few years. Of course, anyone who wants to work as tsimay can always do so. It is a free country amd the world is getting global whether we like it or not. That does not mean to say that Noynoy should stop his inititatives to create jobs and invite investments from abroad – for that is what everyone is fervently hoping for, but these things will take time. We have to be practical and people have to eat and survive. Also, these people will gain experience that will be invaluable once jobs are abundant in Philippines.
Round 1: Parent goes abroad on whatever work is available in order to pay high school/college tuition for children.
Round 2: One or two of children goes abroad for jobs better than their parents got. Remaining children also get good-paying job(s) in Pilipinas.
Round 3: too far away… maybe President bongBong Marcos (or presidente Jinggoy Estrada), because of cheap energy from Nuclear Plants of the President Binay years, have opened up Pilipinas to job-creating foreign investors.
I can say round 1 and round is already happening and we want to encourage more of the round 2 scenario that you listed. Every year, we churn out graduates who become unemployed or underemployed or they get jobs as ofws. Only a few get jobs in Philippines. Proof is that even nursing graduates find it hard to find hospitals that give them the two year requisite experience and sometimes they pay the hospitals just to get them in. My suggestion is to get them some language skills so that they are more desirable candidates for jobs abroad. Knowing that the emerging economy of China and Korea is very buoyant, and of course with the looming aging problem in Japan, our young graduates can position themselves for jobs in these countries. As for retired kababayans, they can help rebuild the Phil. by offering mentorship and volunteering to teach the youth in the Phil. even on a part-time basis.