Let’s face it—the primary reasons behind Chiz Escudero’s decision to resign from NPC are: he lacks the funds after his big-ticket financiers withdrew and he is being weakened by defections. Faced with this prospect, what do you think would an astute politician like Escudero will do?
First, he needs to assess the cause of these defections, both organizationally and financially. Admit it—his ratings went down when Senator Noynoy Aquino entered the political fray. His ratings actually plateued and began to nose-dive when Noynoy’s name was included in those whom people chose as Gloria’s successor.
Why the sudden decrease in ratings? Two things which hurt Escudero: rumours of a merger of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) and the administration and Escudero’s association with Marcos crony, Danding Cojuangco. Signs of a merger began to percolate as early as August, after government asked the Supreme Court to convert coco levy shares at SMC from ordinary to preferred shares. With the prospects of a merger, that, surely will completely turn off progressive groups supportive of Chiz Escudero’s. Defections began to hurt Escudero’s camp, particularly that of the Osmenas who transferred to Noynoy’s camp. Osmena reportedly transferred after getting signs that Danding was half-supportive of Escudero’s bid. Osmena also took the cue from Lucio Tan about Escudero being “young” and ” still unprepared for the presidency.” That intensified defections, especially of financiers from the Filipino-Chinese community.
With his organization hemorrhaging from a series of defections, what was left with Chiz was minority political power brokers. He completely lost his mass base support. With the loss of mass base support, that made an impact below ground, reflecting in the surveys. With ratings showing signs of plateau-ing and even nose-diving, that sent a very bad signal for financiers. Problems began to take a very serious turn when financiers withdrew.
To arrest the further slide down, the NPC opened itself up to more serious negotiations with the administration party. The NPC began dictating terms with the Escudero camp. Faced with defections and lack of finances, Escudero opened itself up to the Panfilo Ping Lacson group. When NPC learned about this, the party further upped the ante, publicly announcing a Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda teamup. NPC did that as deference to Escudero not to lose face. Yet, behind the scenes, NPC was actually maneuvering to isolate and delimit Escudero because with him still in the picture, the possible merger between the party and Lakas-KAMPI will not succeed.
Escudero took the cue from Loren Legarda’s refusal to name her presidential bet as a sign that the NPC and the administration continues to talk about a coalition. Likewise, Danding Cojuangco’s last minute refusal to attend the big rally at the UP to announce his presidential bid, was more than enough signals already that the former Marcos crony was un-impressed with him, especially now that his ratings went further south. A source say that Escudero actually called Danding to bid farewell and tell him that he was resigning as NPC member.
Not to be outmaneuvered, Chiz has no choice but to resign from the party and declare himself a “free agent.” By doing so, Chiz hopes to re-consolidate his mass base support by positioning himself as a non-traditional politician, someone not beholden to any political party nor any big political financier.
His resignation can be interpreted as a tactical retreat, a pause so to speak, to arrest further hemorrhaging both in the organizational as well as the financial levels. Now positioned as a non-trapo presidential bet, Chiz hopes to marshall all progressive groups behind his candidacy, make a movement out of it and get a ratings boost. He needs a shot in the arm, so to speak.
A ratings boost will give his candidacy a fresh start. It will also attract progressives once more, present to them a possibility of forming a third force that would neutralize an Estrada restoration or a Manny Villar win and steal the rug beneath Noynoy’s feet. The resignation hopes to encourage groups supportive of Noynoy to abandon the Liberals and shift their support to Chiz Escudero. Doing so would give Chiz a fresh army of volunteers and potential financiers who does not totally support Noynoy’s bid, disdain Erap’s and fear Villar’s camp.
Now, it remains to be seen if this tactical move will benefit Chiz Escudero. His resignation is a veritable clarion call for all progresives to support him. With the prospects still not entirely clear, that is the real reason why Chiz refuses to declare his bid. That signals to everybody that Escudero’s organization is really hurting.
In the next few days, we will see if Escudero’s resignation would even amount to anything. What if Escudero fails to urge groups to gravitate behind him? He will probably proceed just to spite, weaken and split Estrada’s constituency (that’s the reason why Lacson’s camp aligned itself with the Escudero camp).
Possible scenarios/results of Escudero’s resignation: 1. NPC and admin party will now have full rein for a merger. The possibility of Teodoro-Legarda tandem is now in the works. 2. The Liberal Party will move to convince Chiz to either endorse Noynoy’s bid or ask him to join the process of selecting the true People’s choice of a non-trapo candidate. 3. Should Chiz proceed as an independent candidate, he will damage Estrada’s bid, weaken Noynoy’s mass base and eventually allow Manny Villar’s victory in the 2010 polls.
Popularity: 1% [?]
However people try very hard to fit the person, his decision, or the situation into a theory or an analysis, it won’t snuggly fit. But thank you for trying though.
Whatever the theory or analysis, at least Chiz “Boy Laway” Escudero won’t be president.
That’s certainly a good thing.
Now that he has renounced Marcos crony Danding, maybe he can renounce his Marcos Henchman dad Salvador. Then maybe Chiz can be kapanipaniwala as a ‘progressive’.
for me ,U did a right Thing Senador Chiz! I salute you…Tama lang na umalis ka sa dating partido mo para kung sakaling tumakbo ka bilang Presidente at ikaw ay nabigyan ng pagkakataon na manalo…ay wala kang utang na loob kahit kanino sa mga ka partido mo na yan o sa mga tao na ang hangad lang ay manamantala sa Bayang Pilipinas! unahanin mo ang kapakanan ng taong Bayan kaysa sa mga sariling interest ng mga Negosyanteng yan na mahilig makialam sa bansa at ang mga tao na nasa likod nang pagma-manipula ng Politika sa ating Bansa at isa na ang mga dating kasamahan mo sa NPC. Mabuhay ka! Goodluck!….
Kung Gusto ng Pilipino ang Pagbabago…dapat ang unang tingnan natin ang “QUALIFICATION” ng isang Kandidatong tumatakbo. Dapat ang isang kakandidato sa pagka “PRESIDENTE” ay hindi nakadikit sa mga ma impluwensyang tao, sa mga malalaking negosyante at higit sa lahat walang kamag-anak sa Gobyerno. ito kasi ang nagiging ugat at sanhi ng graft and corruption sa ating Bansa.yung mga nagiging Presidente noon, pag nakaupo na sa pwesto ay nagkakaroon sila ng mga “UTANG na LOOB” sa mga kamag-anak,negosyante o mga ma impluwensyang tao sa alta de siyudad, na siyang tumulong sa kanilang kampanya upang manalo kuno sa pagka Presidente. kaya madalas tuloy pag may hinihinging “FAVOR” ang mga ito sa Presidente ng pinas ay hindi matanggihan ng Presidente na hindi pagbigyan sa gusto ng mga taong ito na nasa paligid nya. ngayon sino ba ang kawawa? di ba tayong mga Pilipino? kawawa tayo lalo na ang mga Pilipinong mahihirap kasi tayo lagi ang na uuto at nagagamit pag dumarating ang eleksyon sa Bansa. tayo yung laging naloloko at na uuto sa mga Propaganda nila sa TV at sa pagpapa bango nila sa MEdia. unang inaatake ng mga politiko na ito sa atin ang ating mga “EMOTION”. at ang mga Politiko ay laging namumudmod ng pera tuwing eleksyon. dahil ito ang kahinaan ng mga Pilipino. Emotion kasi at pagka gahaman sa pera lagi ang pina iiral ng mga Pilipino ,hindi ang Prinsipyo at utak. walang mangyayari pag emotion natin lagi ang ating pina-gagana, kasi kung si SATANAS NGA AY KAYA NYANG MAGPANGGAP NA MABAIT para maka PANLOKO ng mga tao.tandaan nyo hindi mamimigay ng madaming pera ang mga kandidato na tumatakbo ngayon kung walang malaking kapalit o balik sa kanila ang mga malaking pera na ibinigay nila sa mga tao,kapalit ng mga boto nyo. tiyak na mangungurakot ang mga yan para maibalik ang malaking pera na ginastos nila sa kanilang pangangampanya at sa pagtakbo nila sa eleksyon. sana matuto na tayo at baguhin na sana ng mga Pilipino ang ganitong klaseng pag uugali. maging matalino sana tayo sa Pagpili ng magiging Presidente natin para maging matino ang Bansang Pilipinas! para sa akin tama lang ang ginawang desisyon ni Chiz Escudero ang mag resign sya sa NPC. May the Lord watching over you…God bless you Chiz!!!
madada pala pati supporters ni Chiz “Boy Laway” Escudero.
wow, it took Chiz 11 years to realise na kulungan pala ang partido niya. kung di rin naman siya bobo at ngayon lang niya napansin.
the ashman,
Madada man ako dito at least may sense ako di gaya mo walang utak puro batikos lang alam mo dito… sino kaya ang may sense sa mga sinasabi dito? ikaw ba o ako? at inamin mo napansin ni chiz ang Gawa ng partido nya. di na kasi nya ma take nuh!ang pagka diktador ng mga kasama nya at least nauntog na si Chiz at nagising. hindi gaya mo hanggang ngayon natutulog ka pa din sa pansitan at nakapikit ang mga mata mo sa katotohanan. mababaw ang isip mo…utak Bao ka!
Fascinating analysis, but yes Escudero’s resignation was a tactical retreat.
another possibility would be a Villar-Legarda Tandem.
Chiz Escudero is destined to be a key cabinet member of the next administration.
..as a microphone? as an endless supply of Laway during the dry summer months?
Nash, you seems angry at Chiz, any particular reason, if you don’t mind my asking?
I’m not angry. He’s a moron, trapo, charlatan. I’m simply doing my little best to ensure he does not go any higher.
Besides, what is there NOT to be angry with Chiz Escudero?
hehehehe, you are definitely correct my friend.
Chiz has simply run out of options.He is trying one last game plan:Reinvent Himself.
I beg to disagree. I think Chiz will be the next prez of Philippines
next prez what year?
i agree with you punona. Ang kagaya ni Chiz ang dapat maging Presidente sapagkat wala syang pinapanigan kahit sinong tao. naka focus sya sa kapakanan ng sambayanang Pilipino lalo na ang maliliit na tao. mahirap ang naging desisyon nya na umalis sa partido nya, pero pinanindigan nya iyon! tama lahat ng sinabi ni Chiz…”paano ka maglilingkod sa bayan bilang Presidente kung ikaw ay nabubusalan at nakatali ang mga kamay dahil sa mga taong nakapaligid sayo”, na ang mga ma- impluwensyang tao na ito ay mahilig humingi ng ” FAVOR” dahil nagkaroon ka o may utang na loob ka dito? mas mabuti pa ang wala na syang partido at least pag nanalo sya ang utang na loob nya ay nasa mamayang Pilipino na siyang bumoto at nagluklok sa kanya sa pwesto!
How exactly is he going to serve the country?
How exactly is he going to address poverty?
What are his programs? Platform, Plez
Economic Platform, Plez
Environment Platform, Plez
Education Platform, Plez – less math? more skul bukol? more wowowee. get grades without coming to class?
Sorry folks. I m just making a provocation,
But you see, this is the trouble with some people here. Its either they are the most astute of the political analysts or the most gifted.
The trouble is that commenters here are neither of the two, me included.
We are just reactive. Free to write what we feel could happen. However, shallow and preposterous they might be, (mine included ).
So, tama na nga yung mga analyses nyo.
Eh, kung magagaling kayo talaga eh bakit di ninyo na foresee na kakalas si Chiz from NPC or magiging top-rated si Noynoy, ad nauseam.
This reminds me of the so-called psychics in US. They claimed that they rely on vibrations to foretell what will happen. When a psychic was asked what vibration means, his reply was that an event big enough to create a cosmic vibration would not escape them.
He He he. It is on record that no psychic has ever predicted the Twin Towers attack.
He he he. Enough of your analyses. Wait na lang tayo.
You want provocation, then consider this — What Pilipinas needs is strong leadership for two or four or 8 more years.
Now think of the leytenian blogcomment from last week — maybe GMA should continue to lead for a few more years. Of course, Panfilo Lacson said a few months ago he has the strong leadership skills.
Wishy-washy softie leadership will be ineffective.
We dont want dictatoraship. More year for GMA is not
the answer…
UPn, your pro-Gloria slip is showing.
two or three more years of GMA will not hurt….kumbaga, nasaksak na tayo ng ilang beses sa katawan, what is a few more stabs? hindi na natin mararamdaman ang sakit…
nasa emergency room na nga tayo, dalawa ‘o tatlong taon pa kay GMA, morgue na ang tuloy natin.
We have been in “perpetual emergency” since Aquino. There was a brief lull as FVR brought relief and ushered in a period of stability and prosperity.
Only to be wrecked by the drunken master Estrada, and crouching dragon Arroyo.
And people are about to make the “emergency” worse, by using their gut to take the Philippines to the gutter. Then surge the gates later on – kungdi ba naman mga bopol.
punona,
friend, if you read my blog, at http://newphilrevolution.blogspot.com, I already wrote about the possibility of Chiz abandoning NPC a few weeks back. And I also wrote about the financial problems of ChizNation due to the lack of Danding Cojuangco support. And I also wrote about his ratings plateau-ing and nose-diving because of Noynoy.
top rated si noynoy? oo tama top rated si Noynoy sa survey for only 1,000 katao lang na sinu-survey nila ng SWS. ilan ba ang Botante ng Pilipinas? almost 54 million diba? hay naku ginagawa nilang tanga ang mga tao ng Pinas. masyado nila ginagamit ang media. di naman totoo yang survey na yan nuh!
Was interested in what the blogger might have to say about Chiz and Danding, but had to stop midway because of the atrocious grammar. I’m sorry to be blunt, but how it’s written is just as important as what is written about.
Filo…your brother!
Hello bro! :)
It is useless to speculate. Chiz Escudero has his own reasons. We
just wait and see. We cannot read people’s mind.
That’s the favorite pastime of other people here. Reading other people’s mind. He he he.
Useless past time…
Since mind reading seems to be our past time.
kalimutan muna natin ang di nabigyan ng pondo….maiba ng konti.
Maari ba natin ihalintulad ang sinabi ni Chiz sa presidenteng walang partido na ang desisyon ay nagmumula sa isang cabal, at ang dapat ay open consulation sa tao sa isang “idea” na naggaling mismo sa iyo, Ricky.
http://filipinovoices.com/palit-ulo-at-mga-elitistang-problema-ng-pilipino
palit ulo pa din, pero malapit na sa punto mo na ang tanging mabubuting tao,etc ang tunay na mamuno sa pamahalaan.(Civil society?)
is that the truth – the real reason – or is it just your speculation?
An analysis or proposed scenarios are not mind-reading. They’re tools for making informed decisions. We don’t just wait and see. People who wait and see are those who don’t leave their homes even if warnings have been issued about a flood or a hurricane. These are the people who drown or get crushed.
So thanks Pat for the interesting perspective.
yeah…as if there is something ‘special’ to ‘mind’ read in Chiz’ self-induldent ‘in denial’ spin and body language. as if there is anything to ‘speculate’. Chiz isn’t like a hedge fund, he’s a piece of shit lying on the tarmac one must avoid.
Perspective, scenarios, analyses? Mind-reading? We can always play with words. He he he.
punona, if you don’t want me to analyse or mind-read here in FV, can I play my guitar here? matulog na lang kaya tayo?
Suppose, Chiz Escudero will decide to become an OFW. Fed up
with Politics. He will bolt from the country. The same way he
bolted his party. Can you speculate and analyse with that scenario? Or he will be affected by Letosporosis and dies. There are a million ways everything a situation can end up. Dont boggle your mind with such useless things.
Suppose Chiz Escudero will decide to become an OFW. Fed up with Philippine politics. He will bolt the country. The same way he bolted
his party. Can you speculate and analyse with that scenario? Or he
will be affected by Leptosporosis and dies.
There are a million ways he will end up. Dont boggle your minds with
such useless things. It is not worth the time.
This would be better titled as ‘My opinion behind Escudero’s Resignation’.
His opinion is his truth.
I am sorry. But if we hold on your statement that his “opinion is truth,” then everything will be untruth.
Because my opinion that your ” his opinion is truth” is false. Then which is which?
Hijo, LOGIC 101.
This would be better titled as ‘My opinion behind Escudero’s Resignation’
i agree with you there.
pero you know what? perhaps it’s also a graceful grandstanding exit for a guy who wants to be seen as boat shaker, trying too hard though. if he didn’t do it magmumukha talaga siyang kawawa in 2010, so pa-astig effect siya on his way out (though his tail is prolly between his legs on that walk of shame).
senator chiz, SMB!!! (style mo bulok)
Well that could be true. Whether a graceful exit or a sincere move, all of the supporting arguments I have seen move towards the latter.
All of the arguments of this being a graceful exit border more on speculations, negative impositions and are a bit biased.
“I am sorry. But if we hold on your statement that his “opinion is truth,” then everything will be untruth”
Puno,
(his opinion is HIS truth) is different from [his "opinion IS truth"] Kuha mo na? (i know you didnt)..
Joma I think you’re trying to say that truth is relative which I think is not true. Opinion then has no place in our vocabulary.
If each opinion is his truth, then what is the truth?
This logic is wrong. nothing is true and there is no such thing as opinion.
I certainly agree with your Oct 31, 4:39pm post.
It’s simple.
Chiz resigns. What triggered this course of action is the BIG SAD FACT that the NPC, the party he belongs to, did not choose to make him the party’s flag bearer to the mad presidential race.
What used to be symbiotic is now a sense of ‘mutuality’ – they feel, Escudero on the one hand and Danding Cojuango on the other, the same way – they now have to hate each other.
And why? Because as reported, Danding will only fund the campaign of Chiz on an understandably limited basis – NOT ALL OUT.
And because of this, Chiz would rather bolt out from the party which again should be understanding by simple mathematical thought.
There are these Noynoy and Gibo. Why would Danding choose Chiz over them – all other things being equal?
Now Chiz knows his basic math, the one he advocates be extracted from the curriculum of the Philippine educational system.
I like opinions myself. They are a lot easier to concoct than digging up the facts to support one’s preconception.
And once I have an opinion, Boy Howdy, I will never change it even in the face of any amount of evidence or wise countervailing opinions.
Global warming is a bunch of BS, incidentally. Sell short . . . or is it buy long . . . ice, that is. Ice age forthcoming . . .
Joe
indeed, his opinion, his truth. but hey, it was nicely presented. i’m convinced.
whatever the decisions Chiz made.. it’s all up ti him!
why bother? resigning is a tough decision, let’s see what will happen..
Ok lang ke opinion or analysis or truth or gossip or scenario.
Ang MAHALAGA:
Here lies Chiz “Boy Laway” Escudero’s Presidential Delusions. RIP. May it never be resurrected.
Few facts can be said.
When Chiz ran for Senate, his father ran for Congress. Indeed, the son won a senate seat and the father a congressional.
Since Chiz will run for the presidency, what would stop the father to run for the Senate?
And if Chiz goes down from the presidency, the father runs as president while Chiz goes back to run for Congress.
Vicious cycles of politics. It is the greatest source of living.
Madami din talagang tangang Pilipino. as proof, you can backread some of the posts here.
whatever explanation you proffer to shed light on the recent events in chiz’s life, we have to admit that what the senator is doing, or plans on doing, seems to be working.
Bayan Muna, Karapatan, Samahang Magdalo, pamalakaya, anak pawis, kabataan partylist, gabriela, abante ilonggo, an waray, etc. have all thrown support to this guy.
Running independent and winning is not impossible. Miriam almost did it in 1992, when she formed the People’s Reform Party with only her and Magsaysay as members, and the only local candidates they endorsed were Lim and Atienza who ran and won in Manila.
Nadaya nga lang si miriam, but she won against FVR.
now, since Chiz will be running party-less, i suggest he run under a people’s reform movement. and i believe, panalo siya.
Ang daming tanga? Ngayon mo lang nalaman?…saan ka ba naka-tanga?
Kung wala ka rin lang sasabihing maganda joma, tumahimik ka na lang. ang tanga mo.
OnT: the propriety or the stupidity of chiz’s decision lies on who is looking. for the poor, the righteous and the principled, he may have chosen wisely. for the jaded, corrupt and the cynical, he may have committed political suicide.
but none so far have said it was wrong for all the move represents.
o, napipikon ka kapag naputukan ka…easy ka lang pre.