Comments on: The Visayas: The New California? http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california Powered By A Collective Voice Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:47:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.3 By: Current » Adrift in a Winter of Discontent http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-32512 Current » Adrift in a Winter of Discontent Mon, 09 Feb 2009 10:39:27 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-32512 [...] Nichols (who recently penned a fascinating look at the potential pros and cons of electricity generation policies in the Visayas) pointed out this [...] [...] Nichols (who recently penned a fascinating look at the potential pros and cons of electricity generation policies in the Visayas) pointed out this [...]

]]> By: TonGuE-tWisTeD http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31314 TonGuE-tWisTeD Mon, 02 Feb 2009 07:25:11 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31314 What ever happened to the fleet of power barges we had in NPC in the past? I used to supply the spare parts to the Niigata bunker-fired lowspeed gensets. I can't remember now how many but in Navotas alone, there were about 4 or 6 back in the mid-80's. Good preventive maintenance practices can make these work for life. And works well for emergency cases like that of Bohol or Negros. In the immediate future, two years tops, we won't be needing new power in Luzon after the last loadbreak switch in Intel and other large plants have disconnected huge loads off the grid. Practically, all manufacturing activity have scaled down. NPC, NGC, and distributors will find themselves in a tight fix due to the lower revenues and debt payments due soon. Credit is even more difficult even if just to cope with the present, loans for new plants or upgrading old ones are near impossible. I won't be surprised if ERC will be flooded with rate increase petitions anytime soon. What ever happened to the fleet of power barges we had in NPC in the past? I used to supply the spare parts to the Niigata bunker-fired lowspeed gensets. I can’t remember now how many but in Navotas alone, there were about 4 or 6 back in the mid-80′s. Good preventive maintenance practices can make these work for life. And works well for emergency cases like that of Bohol or Negros.

In the immediate future, two years tops, we won’t be needing new power in Luzon after the last loadbreak switch in Intel and other large plants have disconnected huge loads off the grid. Practically, all manufacturing activity have scaled down. NPC, NGC, and distributors will find themselves in a tight fix due to the lower revenues and debt payments due soon. Credit is even more difficult even if just to cope with the present, loans for new plants or upgrading old ones are near impossible.

I won’t be surprised if ERC will be flooded with rate increase petitions anytime soon.

]]> By: Apol http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31285 Apol Mon, 02 Feb 2009 05:37:51 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31285 I do digress. We need to discard this business-as-usual relying on NAPOCOR or its successors. If we depend too much on NAPOCOR to supply the electricity to Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao grid, we have to expect that the electricity cost will keep on increasing year after year. So many has fattened their wallet at NAPOCOR on procurement of equipment, coal, diesel, plants, commissions on contracts, etc. Coupled with the privatization of Transco (now National Grid Corp), transmission cost will also move upward as they need to recover their investment and make a windfall. Several petitions were filed at the ERC by power producers, Meralco and NGC for the increase in their charges. When will the increase in power rates end? What's the solution then? Development of indigenous resources or renewable energy, even if they are localized (distributed) small power generators which is now encouraged by the Renewable Energy Act of 2008. It will not only create price pressure to large power generators but also allow generation of needed job employment and small businesses. Yes, the elusive balanced development will be attained coupled with reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Grid-wide blackouts will then be a thing of the past as each province or municipality will have their own small renewable power source. The next issue would be, there will be another rent-seeking group that will target this area as new source of corruption (hope they wont if they still have any conscience left). I do digress. We need to discard this business-as-usual relying on NAPOCOR or its successors. If we depend too much on NAPOCOR to supply the electricity to Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao grid, we have to expect that the electricity cost will keep on increasing year after year. So many has fattened their wallet at NAPOCOR on procurement of equipment, coal, diesel, plants, commissions on contracts, etc.

Coupled with the privatization of Transco (now National Grid Corp), transmission cost will also move upward as they need to recover their investment and make a windfall.

Several petitions were filed at the ERC by power producers, Meralco and NGC for the increase in their charges.

When will the increase in power rates end? What’s the solution then? Development of indigenous resources or renewable energy, even if they are localized (distributed) small power generators which is now encouraged by the Renewable Energy Act of 2008. It will not only create price pressure to large power generators but also allow generation of needed job employment and small businesses. Yes, the elusive balanced development will be attained coupled with reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Grid-wide blackouts will then be a thing of the past as each province or municipality will have their own small renewable power source. The next issue would be, there will be another rent-seeking group that will target this area as new source of corruption (hope they wont if they still have any conscience left).

]]> By: Nick Nichols http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31222 Nick Nichols Sun, 01 Feb 2009 23:40:22 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31222 DJB - I agree. The idea is to get Napocor out of the generation business. But they're not out. They're in. They supply most (not all) of the power to the cooperatives in the Visayas through the end of 2010 under regulated tariffs. That's just the reality. We still have to step from point A to point B, where Point B = No Napocor and we're in the middle of that stride. DJB – I agree. The idea is to get Napocor out of the generation business. But they’re not out. They’re in. They supply most (not all) of the power to the cooperatives in the Visayas through the end of 2010 under regulated tariffs. That’s just the reality. We still have to step from point A to point B, where Point B = No Napocor and we’re in the middle of that stride.

]]> By: DJB http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31221 DJB Sun, 01 Feb 2009 23:34:46 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31221 Nick, I thought the idea was for Napocor to get out of power generation itself through privatization of its assets? Isn't it the failure of that plan which has led to this? I'm all for appropriate "regulation" but have we truly all become Socialists? Nick,
I thought the idea was for Napocor to get out of power generation itself through privatization of its assets? Isn’t it the failure of that plan which has led to this? I’m all for appropriate “regulation” but have we truly all become Socialists?

]]> By: Nick Nichols http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31220 Nick Nichols Sun, 01 Feb 2009 23:32:55 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31220 Phil Manila - Well you raise up (almost from the dead) certain valid issues. But hindsight is not 20/20. And we're on a path that, if appropriately blazed, has the potential to give tremendous control (or influence) and transparency to the consumers. Or not. It depends on how we move forward from here with restructuring. I too was talking about this back in 2005. See <a href="http://mamutong.com/2005/07/31/napocor-privatization-and-the-public-interest/" rel="nofollow">this</a> that will surprise many of my colleagues. I no longer have that opinion given where we are today. ERC is already making progress (but we're not there yet) on one of the <a href="http://mamutong.com/2005/02/25/root-problem/" rel="nofollow">root problems I mentioned here</a> back in 2005. And we still have to face up to <a href="http://mamutong.com/2005/05/30/puerto-princesa-beset-by-frequent-brownouts/" rel="nofollow">this fundamental challenge</a> on missionary electrification. Phil Manila – Well you raise up (almost from the dead) certain valid issues. But hindsight is not 20/20. And we’re on a path that, if appropriately blazed, has the potential to give tremendous control (or influence) and transparency to the consumers. Or not. It depends on how we move forward from here with restructuring.

I too was talking about this back in 2005. See this that will surprise many of my colleagues. I no longer have that opinion given where we are today. ERC is already making progress (but we’re not there yet) on one of the root problems I mentioned here back in 2005. And we still have to face up to this fundamental challenge on missionary electrification.

]]> By: Nick Nichols http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31218 Nick Nichols Sun, 01 Feb 2009 23:08:38 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31218 Gabby - Yes, it's an undercapacity problem - it's NPC's undercapacity problem. These are not surprise loads. They have contract obligations to meet either through operation of their existing assets or procurement of new capacity. They are already procuring small, high speed diesels (very very expensive to run, by the way) to help meet part of the Panay shortages. The "out" is that if there is not enough capacity on the grid, then they don't have to supply the contract. Well heck, what kind of contract is that? NPC does the planning and procurement for the grid - at least to the extent required to fulfill their contractual load commitments - and therefor has some obligation. Admittedly it is a challenging problem they now find themselves in with no easy solutions for all of us - but it is a problem that NPC had the obligation to anticipate and prepare. Water over the bridge. Similar to California. Now we all have to roll up our sleeves and figure out workable solutions. Yes - new capacity is being built. The undercapacity situation may (stress may) be an interim problem. That is why a lot of the programs of the DOE mentioned in the news article are appropriate. Gabby – Yes, it’s an undercapacity problem – it’s NPC’s undercapacity problem. These are not surprise loads. They have contract obligations to meet either through operation of their existing assets or procurement of new capacity. They are already procuring small, high speed diesels (very very expensive to run, by the way) to help meet part of the Panay shortages.

The “out” is that if there is not enough capacity on the grid, then they don’t have to supply the contract. Well heck, what kind of contract is that? NPC does the planning and procurement for the grid – at least to the extent required to fulfill their contractual load commitments – and therefor has some obligation.

Admittedly it is a challenging problem they now find themselves in with no easy solutions for all of us – but it is a problem that NPC had the obligation to anticipate and prepare. Water over the bridge. Similar to California. Now we all have to roll up our sleeves and figure out workable solutions.

Yes – new capacity is being built. The undercapacity situation may (stress may) be an interim problem. That is why a lot of the programs of the DOE mentioned in the news article are appropriate.

]]> By: GabbyD http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31191 GabbyD Sun, 01 Feb 2009 18:57:47 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31191 yes, great post. the star article said that there is a undercapacity in (generation?) supply. you said the NPC was unable to supply power. is this because of undercapacity as well? is this the out that you mentioned? i.e. its not their fault, more capacity is coming on line next year... also, if EC would have emergency supply aggreements with private entities, then it should be contingent right? we've had so many problems with contracts that force payment even if the power is no longer needed... yes, great post.

the star article said that there is a undercapacity in (generation?) supply.

you said the NPC was unable to supply power. is this because of undercapacity as well? is this the out that you mentioned?

i.e. its not their fault, more capacity is coming on line next year…

also, if EC would have emergency supply aggreements with private entities, then it should be contingent right? we’ve had so many problems with contracts that force payment even if the power is no longer needed…

]]> By: Phil Manila http://filipinovoices.com/the-visayas-the-new-california/comment-page-1#comment-31160 Phil Manila Sun, 01 Feb 2009 14:39:59 +0000 http://www.filipinovoices.com/?p=1416#comment-31160 Good informative post. Knowing that NPC, MERALCO, Big Three oil companies, etc. are all "Masters of the Game" and how the regulators, the energy deregulation law was a big mistake. RP got suckered and in all these privatization, liberalization, deregulation BS during the time of former president FVR. Strategic industries should never have been legislated away by the State. Not with a vastly interested members of Congress, weak regulators, incompetent or blind officials of the Executive branch, etc. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. Good informative post.

Knowing that NPC, MERALCO, Big Three oil companies, etc. are all “Masters of the Game” and how the regulators, the energy deregulation law was a big mistake.

RP got suckered and in all these privatization, liberalization, deregulation BS during the time of former president FVR.

Strategic industries should never have been legislated away by the State. Not with a vastly interested members of Congress, weak regulators, incompetent or blind officials of the Executive branch, etc.

Of course, hindsight is always 20/20.

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