It is widely held belief that Senator Manny Villar’s heavy spending in political advertisements was the chief factor that helped him narrow the gap between himself and presidential race frontrunner Senator Benigno Aquino III in the latest SWS and Pulse Asia opinion poll surveys.
The common belief goes that you need money to buy ads. The more ads you place, the more chances of getting your message across to voters. Therefore conventional wisdom goes that, in an election, the one who has the largest war chest wins. Even Noynoy bought it.
Certainly, money is a factor in an election. But does money, as the conventional wisdom dictates, necessarily translate into votes on polling day?
I used to believe the conventional wisdom until I got hold a few years ago of the 2005 New York Times bestseller Freakonomics, authored by economist Steven Levitt with Stephen Bubner. “Indeed, election data show it is true that the candidate who spends more money in a campaign usually wins,” writes Levitt. “But is money the cause of the victory?”
To figure out the relationship between money and elections, Levitt suggests considering the dynamics involved in campaign finance. “Let’s say you are the kind of person who might contribute $1,000 to a candidate. Chances are you’ll give the money in two situations: a close race, in which you think the money will influence the outcome; or a campaign in which one candidate is a sure winner and you would like to bask in reflected glory or receive some future in-kind consideration. The one candidate you won’t contribute to is a sure loser,” Levitt muses.
“Now picture two candidates, one intrinsically appealing and the other not so. The appealing candidate raises much more money and wins easily. But was it the money that won him the votes, or was it his appeal that won the votes and the money?”
Levitt says the answer to that question is very difficult to answer because voter appeal can’t be measured in numbers just like economic data. “It can’t, really – except in one special case. The key is to measure a candidate against … himself.”
You can gauge the money’s impact if you have two candidates running against each other in two consecutive elections, Levitt explains, and compare their spending and the election results. So Levitt pored over decades of U.S. election data.
“As it turns out, the same two candidates run against each other in consecutive elections all the time – indeed, in nearly a thousand U.S. congressional races since 1972,” Levitt finds.
“What do the numbers have to say about such cases? Here’s the surprise: the amount of money spent by the candidates hardly matters at all. A winning candidate can cut his spending in half and lose only 1 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, a losing candidate who doubles his spending can expect to shift the vote in his favor by that same 1 percent. What really matters for a political candidate is not how much you spend; what matters is who you are.”
So, the key to victory is to tell voters who you are, make sure that what you say matters to voters, and get your message across clearly. If people buy what you’re saying, you win – whether or not you’re selling truth or lies.
Popularity: 2% [?]
“So, the key to victory is to tell voters who you are, make sure that what you say matters to voters, and get your message across clearly. If people buy what you’re saying, you win – whether or not you’re selling truth or lies.”
-and that’s why i think noynoy is losing the surveys.
Noynoy was not even in people’s minds for Malacanang, and then Cory died.
The surge in “popularity” — pakikiramay — was massive, but it was because Ma’am Cory died.
levitt’s main point, as u have written, is that its not straightforward to tell if campaign spending buys votes. in the US, they raise money for the campaign. a candidate may be given money coz he a high likelihood to win. so its tough — when u see a candidate spending alot and win, did the spending do it? or was he appealing, so he had alot of money to burn?
in villar’s case, since he didnt have to raise money from others, its not confusing at all.
Good point about Villar, Gab. Another interesting case to note is Antonio Trillanes’s election victory in 2004. He did what Ninoy Aquino couldn’t do in 1978.
and there are outliers like Bloomberg who outspent his opponent but did not win by a big majority. in fact, Bloomberg has spent $260+M (of his own money) for his three election runs.
Let’s not blame Villar for Noynoy’s demise. He is losing supporters since more and more Filipinos are realizing that he does not have what it takes to be a leader of a country. The dynamics of the presidency is for someone who has proven something in the past. The position is not for people who need an OJT. Noynoy was given his chance to do something as a legislator and sadly, he failed us.
And who among the rest of the 9 Candidates have proven something ‘in the past’?
NINE out of the 10 candidates have NO EXPERIENCE in being president. So 9 out of 10 will be doing an OJT anyway. Only Erap has the experience. Vote for him.
But Erap is an ex-convict, meaning he was proven guilty of plunder in the court of law, how could you refute that?
Great piece, Norm. But, er, perhaps we need to remind some of your readers that this is not about Noynoy but about VILLAR. Let’s not deviate from the main point here as it is pretty serious. Not only in terms of whether our candidate wins, but in terms of the country’s future.
P70.43m (Villar) vs. P7.82m (Noynoy) for ad spending during the survey period alone. Villar has already spent around P2.5b in campaign advertising and the campaign period hasn’t even officially begun. Well, of COURSE his numbers r picking up. Wouldn’t anybody’s? The question is: how does he intend to recoup?
This might also be of interest, Norm:
http://www.malaya.com.ph/oct07/edbanayo.htm
To quote the inimitable Manuel: “Sa madaling salita, gusto ko muna makakita ng police clearance bago sa lahat.”
at such a time like this when the whole survey thing points only to Villar and Noynoy, you cannot just help but compare one from the other.
I believe there is no deviating from the main point. Noynoy? Villar? Erap? Gibo? All of them spend money to advertise. Can we conclude that Villar is gaining points just because he spends the most? Then perhaps we must be reminded about Senatoriable Pichay who spent so much but still lost so much during the last senatorial campaign.
Again, we go back…”the key to victory is to tell voters who you are, make sure that what you say matters to voters, and get your message across clearly. If people buy what you’re saying, you win – whether or not you’re selling truth or lies.”
And that is why i think Noynoy is losing, and Manny is winning.
We have yet to see Villar winning. Except that of his take in the C-5 diversion, heheh. Keep hoping.
The question is: how do u feel about Villar winning, siyetehan? Forget Noynoy, since u’ve apparently decided he’s a dud. But what do YOU think of Villar? Just curious.
siyetehan,
Jumping into this controversies and on this matter, Villar wins the Primary. Has the monies, He lies and walks out on the Senate. What else matters with Villar. As with Michael Bloomberg, what he had done is step over the “Zoo York” people’s referendum and bought his way in for the “3rd term” Is this what Manny doing to the Pilipino people. I’ll let you decide when you go to the poll.
Consider this, – what-if the skills, the competitiveness, the foresight, that shaped Villar into becoming a billionaire were applied to the Philippines – what are the chances that the Philippines will LOSE revenue or GAIN revenue?
Bong, defending Villar once again, I see (despite earlier protestations to the contrary: I take it “Gordon” approves of C5?). Oh, I’m sure the Philippines will gain SOME revenue under a Villar presidency. The question is: will it be reflected in GDP or PCI? In other words, how will it be distributed? Will it actually lower the Gini coefficient (which measures income disparity)? The revenue will most certainly not be used to strengthen institutions working for the rule of law, that’s for sure.
Hi Lila, thank you for that question. What do I think of Villar winning?
Well, first of all, I hope SOMEBODY ELSE wins, which means, I have actually decided on who to vote, and he is not Villar.
However, if we follow the trends, there’s now an 80% chance that Villar will actually pull off and win in 2010. And so to answer your questions, here are the possible scenarios:
1. The C-5 extension project controversy will be forgotten.
2. Senator Allan Cayetano will be Senate Majority Floor Leader, if not Senate President.
3. People from other camps will jump off and join the NP.
4. His losing senatoriables will get the chance to join the cabinet a year after the elections.
5. Noynoy becomes the new face of the opposition.
6. And last, but most important of all, mmda footbridges and barricades will be changed from pink/blue to green to ORANGE.
mario: as I have mentioned on an earlier response, I have already decided on who to vote come polling date.
I agree with The Ca t. It is not the amount of spending that caused the decline of Noynoy and the upsurge of Villar in the survey.
It is more on the quality of the advertising made. The Villar Song, ‘nakaligo ka na ba sa dagat ng basura’ has a very strong appeal to children. You ask them, and they will say they will vote Villar.
Now…
compare that to Noynoy doing the rap.
siyetehan,
I do applaud you with your decision, my best of luck to you.
I am in the process of interrogating BongV’s mind, with this Insight. This where I stand about political propaganda.
Click [HERE] to read my comment.
I have no quarell against Villar’s musical talent nor Noynoy’s ability to rap. They are targeting the star-struck mass appeal; meaning the less informed individual about the political issues. Therefore, courting the massa with feelings and emotional venues.
My concerns are, the ability to deliver their platform to the educated masses. Or, the well informed society.
“Where’s the BEEF“
Ooops!
correction:
“I have no quarrel…”
Personally, I do not believe that it was the amount of spending that narrowed the gap between ratings of Villar and Noynoy.
Because if it is so, then Gibo could have jumped to a higher digit rating with his spending of more than one third of Villar’s total expenditure.
I would like to believe that it is more of the kind of ads that caused the decline in the survey’s ratings of Noynoy.
Just take the case of GIBO’s ad on flying a plane. Any Tom, Dick and Harry would not get the message of the ad not unless he pursued a higher management course where a leader or a CEO is compared to a pilot or a captain of a ship that stirs the vessels to the right direction.
Just watch the ad of Noynoy as a rapper. It is an ad of a tradpol which makes use of the star factor. Surrounding himself with popular stars whose credentials of being there were just because Kris was a friend and a few screaming fans who are no even voters yet, he looked silly rapping and dancing (if you can call that dancing). People can not be fooled. They know that candidates would do things that make them look like an idiot to win the votes. And his parents are regarded as heroes. Sus.
US politicians would prefer kissing babies than look like dork.
When there is already a “sawa” factor of invoking the names of the parents, one more ad of that kind will make the people puke.
While expert marketing/advertising people are conceptualizing the ads of Villar, Noynoy’s Kris and Boy Abunda are depending so much on his popularity that they think that mediocre political ad will do.
Mar Roxas’ “pilit” na “ramdam” ko and the silly “anak Ko, ako na traysikad ad” elicited funny remarks from many people.
He lost the chance of becoming a president. Back to his original “palengke image”, his survey rating soared higher than his closest rival, Loren Legarda whose ad was more focused on women.
in the US maybe, where there is a strong party system. a little campaign finance regulations.
But come on How much did bloomberg spend on his re election.
The thing is we still have an electorate that votes mainly because name-recall.
Nothing against you but this is not applicable. Why because if Levitt used data from the Philippines factoring in to the cost stuff like goons and bribes, people winning because of personality would be the exception.
Gian, on the contrary, US election laws are very much regulated. Remember, Mark Jimenez was extradited to the United States. He was convicted of violating federal law on campaign contributions, among other criminal offences.
Yes, elections in our country boils down to name recall. But it’s not that simple. How do people remember a candidate and why? That is what will either spell victory or defeat. Tessie Aquino-Oreta had to apologize for her dance routine in Estrada’s impeachment trial. She hasn’t won an election since.
For example, Gilbert Teodoro is quite known by now, but he’s lagging in the opinion surveys. Same with Estrada. Some young people know Noynoy not as Cory’s son but as Kris’s older brother. Anyway, I’ve found voter behaviour and psychology to be really fascinating.
Great stuff norm – finally a whiff of rationality.
Right,
it is how much you spend coupled with where you aim it (at ABS-CBN rather than CNN, like Mr. Aquino), plus how well you connect with the target audience, which in this case is rather emotional and starstruck and really enjoys the innocence of the kids singing a great jingle.
It is a masterful campaign, really. And I don’t trust the guy one hoot . . . but he is good at connecting with his audience.
Joe
The Pinoys are not vacuous if they go with the emo Noynoy and pinoys are vacuous if they go with the more issue-oriented and pointed ads? hmmmm… di ko magets Kuya Eddie … LOL
****
Noynoy’s campaign theme is based on the premise that Noynoy is the antithetical opposite of Arroyo – in other words, anti-incumbentism. Presenting Noynoy as having more commitment to anticorruption than all other candidates seemed a good idea. But that assumes that such idea will not be challenged. Under the constant assault of newer ideas, the premises of anti-incumbentism begin to unravel.
With the Aquino campaign as backdrop AND the Center for Risk Communication study as a backdrop – one can see that the promise of bigger commitment to anticorruption can only take Noynoy so far – he needs to back this up with a demonstration of his knowledge and expertise on the issues, because he is not addressing government credibility but HIS OWN credibility to be able to deliver on his solutions and prescriptions.
Thus far, what has Aquino’s campaign done? Instead of stepping up to the challenge of demonstrating knowledge and expertise, it has:
1 – Kept Aquino from attending debates and fora. This was based on the premise that by keeping mum, he can keep his lead. I dunno, but to me, that’s a cop-out, that’s chickening out. By depriving Noynoy of the opportunity on which he can be sized against other candidates knowledge and expertise – his credibility suffers.
2 – It kept on with the winnability, pedigree, and ads bursting with emo schlep. That’s a good intro to a campaign. But, one shouldn’t get stuck in the intro. He could have leveraged and built on the goodwill of the Aquino brand – and moved towards issues and define his stance, instead of pandering to everyone with the celebrity-heavy emo crap .
3 – He did not address the issue of Hacienda Luista head-on. Defying a negative is key to improving perceptions of trust and credibility. HLI was clearly a negative that the Aquino campaign was not able to defy. Instead of grabbing the bull by the horns, he did not want to risk angering his haciendero compadres but played it safe instead. Thus, his credibility took another beating.
4 – Lastly, Aquino did not put in a good performance at the Senate. Sen. Lito Lapid filed more thoughtfull bills than Noynoy at least 7 times more. I have more respect for Lito Lapid than Noynoy who logged a measly 9 bills within a period of 3 years. How can one believe Noynoy if he says he will be more ethical and shape up the government when he can’t even shape up? In this case, his legislative output is proof of the pudding on his ability to perform. Fiscalizer? It’s not even a legitimate English word. It is a stretch of the imagination to believe that Aquino can pull it off when he can’t even deliver satisfactory or even come up with mediocre legislation much less outstanding ones given a period of time.
These are the four items that the Aquino campaign has yet to have a handle on. They still don’t get it.
It is no longer enough to harp on vague themes like “trust”. How can one trust Noynoy to deliver when there is a discrepancy in his walk and his talk?
As voters become more sophisticated, more well-informed, more educated – and have the medium for instantaneous exchange of knowledge and ideas – the questions become more pointed. The questions becomes one of trust.. AND credibility.
Positive Campaigning? Yeah right?
As Aquino’s stats go south, the Aquino campaign will raise issues like “what’s in it for Villar”, as this one:
Media monitors have stated that Manny Villar has spent around 2.5B in campaign advertising. Tsk, tsk…, tsk, the official campaign hasn’t even begun. At this rate, he’ll be spending a lot more. How, in case he wins, do you think will he recoup that personal expense?” ~Leah Navarro
It still misses the point – such a statement does not help Aquino’s case at all. At the very least, one can say – hey, there are truly honest candidates out there – and they deliver world-class results – it’s a toss-up between Gordon and Perlas.
Now if we are to do the math – what is PhP 2.5 to a man whose assets total $530M or PhP 24.3B – check out Forbes list of Philippines 40 richest men. PhP 2.5B is only 10% of Villar’s assets. He can spend another PhP 4B without going broke! And still have so much change.
By focusing on Villar’s spending, the Aquino campaign highlights Villars knowledge and expertise in achieving economic prosperity – and validates Sipag and Tiyaga – and loses out on the opportunity to demonstrate Aquino’s knowledge and expertise (or lack thereof!!!).
Overall, the recent movement in the voter preference augurs well as slackers are eliminated – and candidates with proven ability are given a fair shot at serving their countrymen.
Noynoy has not bagged this election – it’s anyone’s game – thank goodness!
with his known lack of competence and savvy, noynoy would be chopped livers to the predators in his own camp should (by some catastrophic misfortune) he win.
BongV,
Really astute perspective.
“It’s anyone’s game.” Go go Gordon.
Joe
If Gordon were slightly more, er, “world-class,” u would be in a better position to present me with a platform, right? So far, there’s been nada, zilch, nichts coming from your end. At least Mac was kind enough to make an effort, altho I did point out that what he showed me was pretty vague and skeletal.
During the Ondoy effort, many Fil-As and foreign NGOs sending relief goods to Pinas decided not to pass through the Red Cross in the end because we kept receiving repeated reports that Gordon would not allow goods to be distributed in his absence. Which is why many chose other channels, if u observe. Bayani screwed up as well: much of the Ondoy flooding happened under his jurisdiction. Hence the phrase: “Bahayani F.” Face it, for all his time in public office, Gordon’s still a lightweight himself who has been incapable of captivating a national following. At least Perlas is highly respected by NGOs at home and abroad.
Again, why the obsession with Noynoy here? He’s not winning by a huge margin, right? So why not be equally rigorous with Villar (unless u actually like him, in which case why don’t u just say so)? I don’t know what Noynoy supporters you’ve been talking to, but I know for a fact that not everyone thinks/ever thought Noynoy had the campaign in the bag. So why not focus on the topic at hand here? Don’t tell me that Gordon and Perlas have NOTHING to say about Villar? Perhaps u should get your facts straight. As far as I know, they r not happy with Villar either. Go ahead: check it out. Unless you’re really campaigning for Villar…?
More importantly, u people r not the classes the ABS-CBN ads r addressed to. So why the obsession with the ads? So u don’t like Noynoy’s ads — so what? Maybe u like Dolphy — good for u!
But surely that’s not particularly issues-based? I gather Noynoy plans to address the Luisita issue once the campaign officially starts. I may be wrong, but that’s what I was told. if you’re not happy with Noynoy not “directly” addressing that, I wonder how feel about Villar avoiding the Senate. But then again, you’re beginning to sound like someone with double standards, given how schizophrenic your views appear to be. Nothing personal here, but you do tend to contradict yourself all over FV.
Bong I was suprised this post of your got through. I poste dteh ling here earlier and it got censored!
Hi, Gian. Of course, it’s not applicable to the Philippines because of vote buying and other forms of cheating. However, what Levitt said still holds true and he had the data to prove it.
That’s why as long as the people’s will is thwarted, true democracy cannot fully bloom. With that, I personally believe that ordinary Filipinos like us should continue pursuing key democratic reforms such as voter education, scrapping the pork barrel to reduce political patronage, among others.
The Ampatuan massacre is a sneak peek of what will happen to the whole country if we let politicians rule over us like little kings. Para que es la Revolucion Filipina?
In the end, we deserve our leaders because we put them there and we let them be even if they steal and kill with impunity. “Forty million cowards and one SOB,” was how one U.S. official once described the Philippines during the Marcos dictatorship.
All we need to do is nothing in order for evil to triumph.
not exactly as evil is doing its damn best as well.
Almost every blogger says that line : “In the end, we deserve our leaders because we put them there”.
It’s not how much money you spent.
It’s about how much money you spent effectively.
The Noynoy ad with all the singing and dancing = example of a bad TVC.
Norman is writing for an American electorate not for Pinoy electorate whose mass hypnosis and addiction to Mainstream Media and their celebrities, Dolphy and Revillame rear their most devious heads. Villar has the money, (thanks for his C-5 projects) to get endorsement from powerful celebrities whose hold on the CDE classes is almost limitless.
Ding’s theory of “iberating” these masses from their hypnosis through the alternative new media remain elusive and a dream.
Expect more of decades of plunder and brigandage with blistering impunity.
Yes, we deserve the government we have.
tumigil ka nga.
mass media in the USA IS MORE PERVASIVE. the celebrity culture in the usa is big business.
so don’t make mass media hysteria as if this is unique to the Filipinos.
Tama si jcc..indeed we deserve the government we have…corruption, wheelin’-dealin’ is in the blood of many punoys…GMA obviously cheated FPJ, what did we do? ZTE scandal…what did we do?…Revillame’s insulting comments…he is still there….do we have balls to sacrifice our lives for this country?…I don’t think so!
Ravi,
please read extra-judicial killings. Many of those people were not just killed by chance.
Also read about the imprisonment of this guy as a whistbleblower of the corruption in the airforce.
GMA has always been pushed to step down many times by many politicians, religious leaders even Including an almost violent military coup. But we always choose the peaceful means. Peaceful means may not always lead to victory but it’s worth trying.
It’s sad that many people do not credit the efforts of courageous people and focus only on results.
JCC:
Kris Aquino is a celebrity, too right?
Kris Aquino hogged the boob tube earlier than Willie Revillame, right?
In Marketing Terms, “Aquino” is an established brand, a premium brand if I may say. How did that brand get established in the first place? During the Marcos era – where MONEY was infused in campaigning for Cory – for short, the Aquions had a head-start on building the brand.
Is it wrong to catch up? Is it wrong to compete? Shall people just bow down because they don’t have “pedigree” – last time I checked, PI is supposed to be a democracy … not a monarchy in democracy’s clothing.
The stars who endorsed Noynoy in that emo schleppy ad, are celebrity, too, right.
Perhaps, we are not giving enough acknowledgement to the Pinoy, to be able to see thru the ads, validate it with 3rd parties, cross-reference and fact check on the side – then come to their conclusion. :)
We are bored with the Aquinos. Kris Aquino and her multiple
husbands…
i mean, “liberating the masses”
Proven big spender in 2007, Villar (or his handlers) apparently is still not missing the message. He has constantly reminded voters that he worked his way up from poverty.
But Manny also buys election with his “S at T” embedded in noontime shows.
Boo Chanco (Philippine Star article today) has this to say too:
What do Noynoy’s handlers expect – the media spots will be handed to him on a silver platter…. ahhhh… don’t love the pampered life… feeling entitled…
This will be a good time to reflect on how the Hacienda Luisita farmers feel – “media spots = farm land”. ;)
Give me half the billions Villar is projected to spend for his ad campaign and I’ll make Ely Pamatong even more viable than Villar
Elly Pamatong does not need your help. He has Billions in his Chase Manhattan Bank account.
Elly Pamatong 2010!
But give me twice the billions Villar is supposed to spend for his campaign ads and I will still have to spend for cheating if Gloria is my candidate.
I think it’s a sad truth that money can buy election (democracy) if not even done in vote buying. Probably the same way how advertising can scientifically increase profits. It was a loss that the Supreme Court rejected the law on premature campaigning but alas they did. Btw what happened to that law that was supposed to limit campaign spending? Is it still in applicable?
That law is still very much in effect. I think it’s the campaign finance law. But, as I’ve pointed out in an earlier essay on my December visit to Macau, kailangang may pulis para sumunod tayong mga Pilipino sa batas.
At some point, we need to follow the law because it’s the right thing to do, and not because there’s a cop around.
Found it. Republic Act 9006, known as the Fair Elections Act. You can check it out on the site of Chan Robles Virtual Law Library. Cheers.
Thanks for the info. Very informative. Found the link here. I didn’t see the limit on campaign spending but found it at the same website at this page at Section 13.
My favorite part:
I think they should either trash this or just implement it completely. It’s putting up an illusion of fairness and mocking the justice system.
The intent of advertising is to communicate a message to an audience. If people don’t know about a product, Marketing 101 says “advertise” – If business is good, advertise. If business is bad, advertise some more.
The correct reply to an ad is a counter ad – if the other parties can’t reply – that says a lot about capabilities.
The emo ideological themes of the 1950s and 1980s are dinosaurs – the new theme is all about the bottom line, – can your candidacy help improve the economy so that my bottom line will have better chances? How exactly is he going to do this? Demonstrate how he has done this in the past.
This old line about Manny’s wealth harps on the Old World Catholic theme that “it is evil to be wealthy”. The new thinking is , “it’s good to be wealthy” – even Deng Xiapoing was caught saying – “it doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice”.
take it from manny, himself. he spends his own money – product of his own business acumen and hard work, not STOLEN from the government coffers, nor inherited from oligarchic progenitors. let anyone rebuts that by cold facts, not a nebulous charge of “ethics” violation. btw, i was in metro manila recently and was talking to a taxi driver on my way to global city via c-5 road. he said: ” i don’t know why some people make a big stink of the c-5 road extension against villar. it sure benefited us who drive for a living, people who have to be at their work on time, people who badly need relief from the curse of daily traffic congestion”. this gave me a reason why the senate moro-moro is not resonating with the public, and villar is up and aquino is down at the polls.
Bong, it’s slightly amusing how u accuse Noynoy of being old money, on the one hand (“oligarch class,” etc, ad nauseam), while defending Villar’s wealth, on the other. So which is it, buddy? U seem slightly confused in terms of your own response to wealth. ;-) Or r the criminals in your mind only the old rich and not the new rich, in which case: what do u suppose Villar’s great-grandchildren will be considered by their generation if not old rich? U forget: ours is a very young country.
As for the notion that everything he has been spending is his own money, that’s another joke. There would be NO C5 controversy if he had not touched government funds. Whether some taxi drivers happen to like C5 or not is hardly the point, surely. If the Ayalas had spent government money to build Makati, regardless of how many people r now enjoying it, people would’ve made a big stink about that too, right? What Villar did was hardly philanthropic considering the increased market value to his own properties and the concomitant cost to the country. That money could’ve been used for far more productive purposes, considering that the extension was redundant.
What’s up BongV,
Let me gently step on you foot for a moment. Easy lang dre!
Are we really that omniscient. Or, do we still lack the ability to discern false advertising when it’s presented to us. Commercial propaganda is having the ability to, or let’s just say, being obtrusive. When if and, applied in political arena, it becomes pretty blatant. It’s mannerism and how well it is disguise, is beyond one’s comprehension. It’s propaganda, is to attract a wide audience, an attention getter of slow people, to entice the unconsciousness Filipino’s. To substitute falsehood as being sublime, is this what we call innovation, on part of Manny Villar scheme. His inert clinging, to the traditional[trapos] and its habitual routine.
Of course, one must indure to continue and undermine the uneducated masses, in order to succeed. This my friend, is Villar’s only option. With the wealth on his sides, he does have this capability and option. Advertising speaks for itself, whether it be adjusted with the mind of the masses that is being courted. To present such ad, it must be agreeable, or acceptable, to satisfy, specially to please the mass audience. Here comes the best part, to speak out their idiom. Advertising is such a shrill and, who, at best knows this. Of course Villar himself. That is why he has a tremendous wealth. I still wonder how he aquire such status. (cheating, it must be…[...]). By all means, you have already broken all the rules. Political advertising is such a sham!
@lila shahani:
will you, or can you, refute villar’s claim (that he spends legitimately-earned money by his own effort) with cold, substantiated facts and not with speculative, imaginative, charge of ethics violation?
btw, your argument against the taxi driver in my story may be okay but still, it doesn’t resonate with the common people like him. that’s why villar is up and your noynoy is down at the latest polls.
I disagree with the belief that money buys an election. It may be true to some circumstances. But not always true.
The Ruling Party of Japan has all the money and campaign resources.
The Party of former Primier Taro Aso.
Yet , they lost to the Japanese Youth Vote and the election. The Young Japanese banded themselves together to campaign for their Youth candidates. And, they WON. If you just watch and see. As the moneyed candidate like Mr. Villar uses our own tax money to win the Presidency. “Ginisa na tayo sa sariling mantika.” But, if you mobilize yourself and everybody else to make people to vote for the right candidate. Then, the good candidate can win. It is up to us. Be apathetic. You loss. Mobilize yourself. There is a possibility to have the good candidate win.
Oh, we’ll mobilize. We’re certainly going to try to step up our campaign. But I’m glad u admit that Noynoy is the good candidate.
better hurry home Lila before its too late, Good luck!
I will never eendorse any candidate. That is my position.
Vote for a Candidate you choose.
“It is a useless life that is not consecrated to a great ideal. It is like a stone wasted on the field without becoming a part of any edifice.” – Jose Rizal, “El Filibusterismo”
Mariano, it is not true either that the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan)does not have money, the members of the DPJ are just a savvy in campaign financing as the LDP, most leaders of the DPJ are former LDP and have deep ties with the business sector. The election laws in Japan though prohibit open TV campaigning through ads which could be very expensive, the government gives money to each party for the ads and regulates the length, content and who shall read the campaign manifesto. Even internet is not widely used in Japan for campaigning, campaigning is very personal, much like how our political machinery works in the provinces, lots of entertaining and personal networking, but in cities, yeah, the youth vote made it happen for the DPJ, their platform of two-party system has worked since LDP has failed to get Japan out of recession in two decades, the young people have a lot to lose with the slowing economy, nowadays, only 60% of grads are assured of some employment and many will be underemployed or unemployed.
Of course, Money can buy anybody at the right time- that’s the night before election. That’s the reality. Campaign and advertising are just part of the competition. Will see…
and you may add leytenian that in our country, those who don’t have access to information like us will be susceptible to the influence of their local leaders, and that is why I am optimistic Gibo still has a good chance of winning, despite what the polls say at this point, the Lakas machinery will work to ensure his victory in the provinces!
yes, the visayas and mindanao have vowed strong support. let noynoy and villar entertatin the country while sit back and relax with a glass of wine… lol
goodluck to you, guys! or, is it better luck next time?
To me its just boil down to what UPn was saying – planning and preparation. Villar has planned his bid very well including the budget so he the most preapred among the candidates. So Villar will win and I will not feel bad if he does. But I will still vote for Gibo.
“So Villar will win and I will not feel bad if he does. But I will still vote for Gibo.”
Of course naman. While Gibo is your bet, GMA’s secret ally is Villar. So kay Gibo tayo or Villar to guarantee the continuity of GMA’s policies. Mabuhay si Gibo, Villar and GMA.
don’t worry, punona. rego will switch to villar when he confirmed that villar is gma’s annointed one :-).
well no wonder Noynoys rating is going down….
Edward,
please read extra-judicial killings. Many of those people were not just killed by chance….and many of us, much more could care less
Also read about the imprisonment of this guy as a whistbleblower of the corruption in the airforce…and how many in their ranks are more than willing to close their eyes and shut their mouths for a measly few bottles of beer?
GMA has always been pushed to step down many times by many politicians, religious leaders even Including an almost violent military coup. But we always choose the peaceful means. Peaceful means may not always lead to victory but it’s worth trying….peaceful means can only be meaningful if people have experienced violent upheavals…are we, can we, do we, as filipinos of today, capable and have the balls for a bloody revolution? no more patriotism for most filipinos of today, we so self/fsmily centered..filipinos of today are not country-centered
It’s sad that many people do not credit the efforts of courageous people and focus only on results….how true…and for most of us, we just love to talk, we don’t walk the talk…and blogging is nothing but a form of electronic talk…just talk..talk..talk
Well I agree, many ignore farmers and protesters being killed. I think Devanadera of Human Rights Commission will solve that problem. Though the HRC powers is just limited to investigate and recommend. But I think the Internet is helping the way to expose these abuses. That’s why I’m not supporting Gibo or Noynoy.
Instead of focusing on the one hope we have, why focus on the bad ones? I know it needs improvement but I think we should give due credit to these whistleblowers to help set an example and encourage more of it shouldn’t we?
I agree with you. I would like to see it that we are God-centered (at least that would be the ideal) so that love would not be confined to self, family, relatives, friends even country and for us to extend love for humanity as a whole. Is a bloody revolution justifiable at our current situation? I think that’s more of the question than having ‘the balls’ for a bloody revolution. Foreign countries are just itching to sell some weapons and play us against each other.
I’m open to suggestions.
Yeah extra-judicial killings are tacitly sanctioned in our society due to the proliferation of guns, and look how the senate has not acted on stiffer penalty bill for illegal possession of guns, and instead dwell on politicking on something that had already run its course. It seems to me that we are heavy on politicking and very light on policy-making, our legislators just grandstand when performing their duties. We need to address our problems with concrete policies and it seems to me only Gibo offers concrete policy proposals to solve our problems, on extra-judicial killings, we need to strengthen the wheels of justice by giving more funding to our defense and police enforcement. He rightly pointed out that for a country of 80 million, our police force is strikingly minimal compared to New York, with 40,000 police force and a population that is 1/8 of ours and in addition, we are an archipelagic country. We can denounce extra-judicial killings, corruption, etc., but if we do not demand our lawmakers make the right policy decisions, then, we are part of the problem not the solution. Trillanes who is the top spender as a senator should be put in jail for insubordination, our military is so unprofessional and yes corruption thrives because there has not been a serious policy to address this unprofessional and corrupt institution, a Trillanes will not solve the problem there, if this were a different country, Trillanes would have been put in his right place, the military is at all times subordinate to civilian authority, and it doesn’t matter how corrupt, the Bush administration is far more corrupt than this administration, but the military did not stage a coup or try to destabilize the government, yes, we need strong institutions, but we have to elect leaders and if they prove to be disappointing, we can reject them in the next election, institution-building is the biggest issue in our country, we cannot solve problems with destabilization and intrigue, you cannot force elected officials to resign and let go of their duties just because there is a strong clamor for them to step down. The state has the right to protect itself. What we need in our country as the provinces deem is political stability and economic development. Wonder why the provinces are not joining the noise in Manila to oust the current government, for despite its failings, the current govt. has brought some econ. growth to the countryside, there is a trickle down effect, even if economists point out the discrepancy in development funds devoted to NCR against the provinces. Wonder why Cebu is pro-Gibo, its because Cebu has benefited a lot from the economic policies of this administration, poverty statistics do not include Cebu or Visayas on the top, it is the conflict-ridden Mindanao that is on top of poverty charts, now doesn’t this tell you that Gibo’s policy of pacifying Mindanao through increase of defense budget and professionalizing our armed forces make sense?
should villar wins (which is becoming more and more a cinch), there would be two predictable “palusot” by the losers: (1) villar “bought” the election, and/or (2) he “cheated”. how so predictable!
Hey, Ben,
Good to see you again. I think he can shut people up during the early part of his term by being a force of reason and attention to public good. I personally (speaking on behalf of my wife’s vote, of course) would set aside all the mistrust and possible abuses, wipe the slate clean, and root for a progressive presidency.
There aren’t many ethically pure candidates, methinks, where ethics are the western brand of strict adherence to law.
Joe
The third excuse: Villar is GMA’s secret candidate.
Welcome back, Bencard.
Here is a new excuse for when GMA wins — representative 2nd District Pampanga. Ay, hindi namin napansin!
GMA ran a stealth campaign and the opposition didn’t notice she (GMA) was running.
yeah welcome back Atty Ben…
Oh Yes Bencard, welcome back. I missed you so much and sincerely wondered what happened to you!
depends on the evidence companyero
How about changing our election system? Here’s how to simplify elections, reduce manpower and logistics and make it less expensive for candidates, and maybe, even do away with computerization. Popular elections shall be limited at the grass root level, the barangay, and all higher level officials shall be elected by representative voting. Here’s how it works. Starting at the barangay level, a popular election is held to select the barangay council members and chairman. At the next level, the town, the barangay chairmen elects a mayor from among themselves. At the provincial level, a similar election is held to elect a governor from among the town mayors. Finally, the president is elected by the governors from among themselves. This is how the government would look like: the batasan and the senate is abolished and replaced by a parliament composed of governors. The cabinet is similarly abolished and replaced by appointees from among the members of parliament. Obviously, refinements are needed, but the basic structure is there.
This suggestion makes sense, what again, you are suggesting parliamentary form, with some revisions, what about Gloria, doesn’t this sound like another ploy for Gloria to keep running the country most especially with governors coming from her own party, oh, there you go again, the Gloria argument, this one people will embrace with gusto and will even add some creative embellishments, like Gloria not only will become the head of the government, she will come back as a nightmarish figure, haunting all in the country, and now, that she is supporting Villar with secret meetings in Malacanang, what? You want to change our form of government to allow Gloria to be the eternal leader of the land??????? Can you imagine the cottage industry in the media that will spring up from this innocuous suggestion? Nothing else but Gloria can work up the creative imagination of the press!
I dont know if Noynoy supporters realized it. But dont they think that Villar is a sure bet that will prevent GMA to come back to power as prime as Prime Minister. Villar is no fool to spend billions just to give way to GMA. I dont know but I suspect that that this the reason why Noynoy is rating is spiraling downward. Noynoy and Noynoyistas are just so unreasonable and unbelivable with this anti-incumbentism . It doesn’t make sense anymore! Kelan pa kayo maigigising pag below 30% na ang rating survey ni Noynoy?
Nothing to do with GMA, purely speculative exercise. I just find it amusing to daydream that I can run in my barangay without any party affiliation or huge campaign fund, and perhaps a better chance of winning, if I know I have done something good for my community and do not have any heavy baggage of suspicious get-rich-quick operation.
there is an obvious problem with your plan, macapili.
start at the barangay level. if one of the b chairmen in a muni becomes mayor, he will be mayor and a barangay captain simultaneously?
but the functions of each leader is very different, and each requires attention.
the problem is magnified as this lucky barangay chairman is “elected” by his peers up the chain of power.
the president (whatever the highest guy is) is also, the (enter blank here), and also… and finally, he is, ON TOP OF ALL THAT, a barangay chairman/captain.
thats a heavy burden.
No, and this is one the refinements – whoever is elected to a higher position is replaced by the someone who garnered the next highest vote at the lower level. So, in the case you cited, the mayor ceases to be barangay chairman, and whoever was second in vote tabulation at the barangay election becomes the new barangay chairman. The process of replacement goes all the way up to the president.
but if someone gets replaced, who replaces him?
that still means that one barangay chairman will be mayor at the same time. he’s going to do 2 jobs at the same time.
The rule is no duplication of functions. The election of mayor, governor and president results in vacancies. The vacancies are filled by promotion. Let’s say a barangay chairman is elected mayor he vacates his barangay chairman position and takes the mayoralty position. A vacancy is thus created in the position of barangay chairman. This vacancy is filled by the promotion of the next senior (in terms of votes garnered) barangay council member to the position of chairman. In turn, a vacancy is created in the position of council member. This vacancy is filled by the promotion of the most senior, non-winning candidate for council membership.
sorry but this is a very very wrong idea. Reduce manpower and do away with automation? the government just spent money for automation and your suggesting to reverse it? Give me facts or proven electoral system of management from other PROGRESSIVE country that may support your suggestion. Comelec actually needs more competent people and reliable IT system to facilitate the results of election.
and you don’t want the people to vote for his/her president and leave it up to the governors? wow !!!
Do you know how the president and vice president of the United States are elected?
ok fair answer macapili but let’s look at Philippines
1. The majority of US voters are educated middle class. The Philippines is the opposite.Voters vote emotionally ignoring platforms and brushing aside that using children as a campaign ad can be illegal.Majority is not interested on listening to the debate because they prefer to watch wowowee. None of our public figures encourage the people to watch presidential Q and A. Majority are poor and unaware of their voting rights.
2. US has two major political principled parties with an existing standard policy. one is left and one is right or was black or white.The american people participate to keep the right and the left in the middle or in tune.They lobby with a lawyer ready to protect their advocation. In the Philippines, there’s no left or right,but a multiparty system without no clear principles and policies. It’s divided from right, left, up and down and who knows where each party will be heading. Central governance is neglectful of the provinces. They look superior and yet very shallow inside. Look at all those 12 senators posted by ding. People in Manila go to EDSA without plannning while the people in the provinces are in Sabong or at the comfort of their homes watching santino.
3. US rule of law is well developed, whereas Philippines still buys people and no one goes to jail for buying votes. The US did not have an electric power outage during the election to intimidate voters. In Philippines , it is very common like a standard operating procedure.
Maybe we fix those first then your idea may fit.
“manuelbuencamino , February 6, 2010 at 12:27 am But give me twice the billions Villar is supposed to spend for his campaign ads and I will still have to spend for cheating if Gloria is my candidate.”
“manuelbuencamino, February 6, 2010 at 12:27 am But give me twice the billions Villar is supposed to spend for his campaign ads and I will still have to spend for cheating if Gloria is my candidate.”
———————————————————————
Poor Manuel B, Was relegated to one or two liners now that Noynoys rating is spiralling down wards. Ang yabang yabang ng taong eto noong unang lubas na 60% and survey rating ni Noynoy!
rego,
One or two lines are enough to put you in your place.
There you go!!!!
Stark contrast to a jeepney driver who said, “Wala sanang duda kay Villar kung ang lupain niya’y nasa Mindanaw. Naging mahirap* sa ‘king paniwalaang ‘di rin siya nakinabang.”
—–
*title of Villar’s campaign jingle
…btw, i was in metro manila recently and was talking to a taxi driver on my way to global city via c-5 road. he said: ” i don’t know why some people make a big stink of the c-5 road extension against villar. it sure benefited us who drive for a living, people who have to be at their work on time, people who badly need relief from the curse of daily traffic congestion”…
- Bencard
I guess it’s safe to assume that neither the cabbie nor the lawyer Bencab read the 84-page draft report of tthe Senate Committee of the Whole.
I can understand the cabbie may not have time to read it but Bencab will have time to do it on his flight back to Chicago or whatever midwestern town he calls home.
So please Bencab read it. And then comment.
i don’t waste my time reading political canard.
Just bought property on Biliran
Who do I see to get an expressway routed through here?
Joe
LOL, you make me laugh Joe. You are not watching superbowl? where is biliran?
Bencard,
So you concluded that the report is political canard without even taking a cursory glance at the testimony and 990 pieces of documentary evidence.
How did you reach your conclusion, through Villar’s press releases?
And I thought you were a lawyer who looked at evidence and testimony before drawing conclusions.
Tsk,tsk.
leytenian,
150 k or so from you. From Tacloban head toward Ormoc, but at Lemon, hang a right and drive through the hills for 35k. Cross the bridge and you are on the petite isle of Biliran, all inert volcano and coastline with terraced rice and a little flatland rice, and plenty of coconuts.
Joe
joe,
I will personally pass by and greet you, when I am in town. That is, when and if, Manny Villar construct a “Super Highway” straight towards your place. Just want to make sure, that I don’t end up four wheeling my Z06. LOL!
obviously, baycas, your jeepney driver did not help lower villar’s rating in the polls.
Oh, most certainly, Manong Ben. He’s a pure Gibo fan…ever since Galing at Talino hit us.
Btw, Villar already overtook Aquino (1-on-1, Pulse Asia).
Happy ‘Noy Year, Manong!
@joe-am, philmanila, mike h, rego, and leytenean:
thanks for the welcome. good to be back.
If a candidate cuts on spending, he compromises 1% less of a possible share in voters’ turnout. But if goes one heartbeat higher, he recovers another 1% more of such share.
That said, there may be a truism to the thesis that “money” and “more money’ buy more votes. So one just takes his pick.
Relate this theme to how Villar spends in the billions just to “buy” more votes than anyone else can. It never aims to level the playing field, does it?
What either strengthens or weakens one’s marketability resides in another realm of public perception and that is on whether or not, Villar may have been involved in ‘bigger than big’ transactions beset with reported anomalies.
Who can really tell, which one is the spade?