I have a slight problem following scenarios like Gloria will run for Pampanga’s second district so she can become Prime Minister or that she will declare martial law with the help of her PMA “mistahs.”
Too many things have to fall into place, for the premiership scenario…
1. She wins the congressional race
2. She becomes Speaker
3. The House and the Senate agree to a con-ass
4. Con-ass shifts to parliamentary system
5. New constitution is approved in plebescite
And most important of all:
6. After June 30, 2010, Gloria will no longer be president. At best, she will be just another member of the Lower House, and a neophyte at that. Meanwhile, the new president will be The President. He will give way to Rep. Gloria? One will have to assume the new president will not want a full 6-year term, will not do everything in his power to remain in office. In short, one will have to assume he is insane.
As to the martial law scenario with the help of her PMA class…
It will be a replay of history because Gloria’s generals will have to stay on past retirement. As a result, the promotions system will have a ceiling. And that will breed unrest among the officer corps. She and her generals will have to divide and conquer the corps through bribery and intimidation. But history has shown that those tactics have their limits, Gloria will not live forever. Neither will her core group of generals. Consequently, when the question of succession looms, the whole thing will fall apart.
What is the most likely scenario after Jume 30, 2010? Who knows? Desperate people do crazy things.
But the best scenario is for Gloria to realize that there will be a lot of noise to bring her to justice but it’s going to be only noise. She will get away with it because that’s the way it is in this Enchanted Kingdom.
Popularity: 1% [?]
good analysis. that’s why we really don’t see anything promise with this 2010 elections. its annihilation or nothing.
How about this —
1. The elections are held in 2010
2. The automation works very well
3. GMA doesn’t run for any post
4. A peaceful transition of power occurs
It’s maybe way too boring for some, but the odds are that this is exactly what will happen.
——————
To me, it’s what happens AFTER the elections are completed and a new Prez and Congress take over the duties. My guess is that there will be a new dynamic as Lakas-Kampi loses some strength (but not the majority) and a Prez moves in (Villar?) who isn’t joined at the hip with them.
I just hope they can get down to work without once again having a destructive environment dragging everyone down.
Getting down-and-dirty and focusing and work? But can’t you see, dear boss why I can’t concentrate and why this project is getting late? I have to daydream some more about GMA’s prime-ministership in an AugustMoon cuuu-cuuu-ruuu-cuuu-Coup.
Now, what’s your excuse why you did not get a promotion?
RC,
I hope your scenario happens.
And don’t worry if the new prez is from another party PaLaKa will go into hibernation just like it did after JDV lost to Erap.
I don’t see why they would go into hibernation if they retain the majority in the House, in Governorships and in mayoralties.
There are many bills to work on and pass and they will need to cooperate with the new Prez…as will the Prez need to coop with them.
RC,
Cory controlled the House through Mitra’s LDP. After Mitra lost, the LDP became a nonentity. It was replaced by Lakas. After JDV lost to Erap. Lakas became a minority party. Cobgressmen flocked to Erap and he was able to place Villar as Speaker. After Erap was deposed, Lakas rose from the dead. Now it is one with Kampi.
What makes you think that PaLaKa will remain the majority in the House if they fail to elect the next president?
The next majority party will be whatever the next president belongs to. The reason is simple. The president controls the pork.
MB,
They will probably run and win the majority of the House and LGU seats. They will probably be a smaller group than now.
Will they leave their party and join, say, Villar’s, Legarda’s or Roxas’ party? Nobody knows. History may be an indicator…but it’s certainly not infallible.
If their numbers are big, Lakas-Kampi would probably be better off leveraging their pure bulk to negotiate for whatever they want/need. Presidents need Congress as much as Congress needs the Prez.
Anyway, I don’t think they will go “into hybernation.”
Hear, hear.
The worse thing that anybody can do is fill your minds with different
scenarios. Then, you go crazy thinking about them. There is nothing
you can do; but wait, watch and be vigilant.
The Generals who would put Gloria Arroyo to power are not as
docile as her house husband, Mike Arroyo, Sr. They will prop her
up, then put her down. So that they will divide the spoil among
themselves.
Dont react to things. Give a good action to remedy situations that
may arise.
Maybe we can think for a while, talk for a while, listen for a while (not necessarily in that order)…then vote. Once that is all said and done, we can accept the results and go back to normal day-to-day existence.
This doesn’t have to be THAT hard, now does it?
Do we really need the drama? Doesn’t everyone agree that this nation better get its act together and get out there and compete? Doesn’t everyone agree that this nation needs jobs…lots more jobs? Doesn’t everyone agree that there is a lot of internal repair/infrastructure development that deserves focus more than any devisive issue does?
So much wasted energy on political/showbiz exposes, rumors and body parts. So much needed energy for hard work and fundamental improvement.
The scenario we so desperately need is at our fingertips.
Hi RC.
You may care to:
http://midfield.wordpress.com/2009/07/03/the-so-called-oplan-august-moon-and-rivalry-of-the-generals/
More anonymous haka-haka fueled by the opposition?
Like I said: wasted energy.
Getting our acts together is all fine and dandy RC. But you can go ahead and shoot the moon, there is only a finite number of jobs you could create in an environment of distrust and disunity instigated by Gloria Arroyo.
Trquill,
The finite number of jobs available pre-date GMA (and Erap, FVR, Cory….).
The reason is that a small economic elite enjoy their monopolies and the foreign investors are not enticed enough to pour money into the domestic economy.
The disruption to the economy and to the country’s overseas image by the loud screeching over the last few years didn’t help at all. Blaming the lack of jobs on GMA is just more of the same inanity (and insanity).
Yes, I suppose it is the Palace deafness toward the “noise” emanating from the people that is most disconcerting. A forthright President would be calming the people in the storm of coup rumors, ConAss street protests and breakdowns at COMELEC. From a Western perspective, where leaders are always in front of reporters and cameras interpreting events and spinning them constructively, the silence here is a tad scary.
Joe
Joe,
You would be right if you weren’t wrong.
There is no big “noise” from the people. You have never explained who all these people are. 1~2% are making a ton of noise…and the friendly (to them) media oblingingly hyper-amplify the volume. But nobody else is joining them.
The ConAss street protests are miniscule.
There is/was nothing the Palace can/could do about the elections; Comelec is its own independent constitutional body, overseen by Congress and driven by the Advisory Council — a mish mash of public and private experts.
There was a constant output of information and responses from Malacanang to the reporters and their cameras. They were anything but silent.
Joe — you may want to start getting your news from better sources.
Ahh, Reality,
It is not the sources, they are the same, it is the news. Now today, for instance, very uplifting. Autovoting back on track (resolution buried in non-transparency, though.) Ms. Arroyo recognizing the people need to know about her condition — a very forthright announcement, versus the shenanigans pulled yesterday by her staff. A broad and deep private collective of press, business and academic leaders joining to ensure a confident 2010 election. And a wonderful, wonderful article by former Ambassador to the US, Albert F. del Rosario, in the Inquirer, about “Building a Closer RP-US Partnership”.
Keep this kind of news coming my way, and I will be solidly in your camp.
Joe
MB,
nang di umubra ang impeachment nung 2006,madaming blog commenter ang nag sabi na di nila iboboto ang mga congressman na di nagpaabot sa senado ng impeachment complaint.at nanawagan sa mga kababayan na wag silang iboto.
anong nagyari nung 2007?
sabagay bakit ko naman ikukumpara ang blog commentaries, sa mga nangyayari on the ground, karamihan ng commenter abroad, o di naman taga probinsya ng mga congressman na sinasiabi nilang wag iboto.
ang punto ko, MB di ba sabi mo,di importante ang local ang importante ang national, kung ganyan bakit nakakatakot ang manalo bilang congressman at speaker si gloria?
dahil ba wala na tayong magagawa?
karl,
hindi nakakatakot kung manalo bilang congressman si gloria dahil hindi na siya ang pinakamakapangyarihan kung siya ay nasa batasan.
At ako’y nakakasiguro na si Gloria ay hindi magiging Speaker kung ang bagong presidente ay hindi niya kapartido.
Bakit?
Kasi ang presidente ang kumokontrola ng pork barrel. Yun pork ang nagbibigay sa kanya ng poder para magdikta sa mga congressista kung sino ang iboboto nila bilang Speaker.
Mula nung panahon ni Cory, nagkaroon na ba ng Speaker na hindi binasbasan ng presidente? Tignan mo na lang maski nung panahon ni Erap. Na impeach na nga sita sa House, nakuha pa niyang tanggalin si Villar at iupo si noli fuantabella.
Tungkol sa local at national. Ano ang nangyari nung 2007? Na deliver ba ng mga local na politiko ang boto para sa mga kandidato ng administrasyon sa senado?
Tungkol naman dun sa mga blog commenter – kung minsan ang isang national issue ay hindi nalilipat sa local. Yun impeachment etc. pumasok sa resulta ng senatorial vote. Nakita mo naman na bugbog cerrado yun admin party sa senatorial. Pero sa lokal madaming issues dyan maliban sa pro or anti-admin. Kanya kanyang lokalidad, kanyakanyang issue. Para sa akin walang ano yan sa partido kasi pag umupo ang baging presidente malamang yun conhressman ay lilipat sa partido ng presidente.
The 5 conditions for the premiership scenario can all fall in place with high likelihood.
1. If she can win as senator, to win as congressman are steps more easy.
2. If she can be president – by trust (EDSA 2), by aid (COMELEC), to become speaker in the newly-merged political arrangement are a lot mor easy.
3. The House unanimously approved Con Ass, ‘few more bags of money’ can operate like ‘vendo machine’ in the Senate.
4. Con-Ass suffers from the autistic mindset of a parliamentary form of government.
5. New Constitution will be approved in a plebiscite since everything now appears “rosy” – massive propaganda is the name of the game.
In principle, a scenario is gestalt – it has x number of ‘interfaces’.
Primer,
To win in Cingress is only the first step. You have to show me how numbers 2 – 5 will automatically fall into place.
And the biggest obstacle is number 6. Do you seriously believe that whoever the new prez will be, he will step aside for Gloria? Why would he do that?
Kahit pa si Gloria ang kingmaker…At the end of the day, the king is the king. He and not the kingmaker wears the crown…