Rachel Carson wrote in the 1950s (I think it was in “Under the Sea Wind”) that science is “part of the fabric of life”. In 1948, John Steinbeck (best known for “The Grapes of Wrath” and a 1962 Nobel Prizewinner in literature) wrote a foreword to Ed Ricketts “Between Pacific Tides” in which he notes that science is a new way of looking at the world despite its warps. Steinbeck and his marine biologist friend, Ricketts collaborated on a marine biology expedition in the Sea of Cortez in 1940. Their collaboration is considered to be a unique effort in viewing nature. Steinbeck used marine science to view nature using prose as a literary form and Ricketts viewed nature and how nature is viewed using science.
There would never be any other time since then when art and science would tryst. Art has become constructivist and science has become less reflective. Both Carson and Steinbeck had science and literary talent and training. Their works are examples of what we call now as the science essay genre. They also helped popularized science and communicate to the public how and what science does and its associated uncertainties.
Today the public wants answers to vexing questions on food security, climate change, the fate of human society, energy and a whole raft of environmental, economic and political issues. It weren’t scientific papers published in “Nature” or “Science” that catalyzed public awareness on these issues but the works of Carson (“Silent Spring”) and Steinbeck (“Log from the Sea of Cortez”). Carson can be the secular environmentalist counterpart of the Protestant Reformation’s John Wycliffe. If Wycliffe is called today as the Morning Star of the Reformation, Carson could be called as the Morning Star of Environmentalism. In Silent Spring’s first chapter, Carson described a hypothetical scenario when pesticides have eliminated 1) insects, 2) birds and people were having health problems as a result. Carson was a professional scientist and recognized that her work involved uncertainties and errors and the proposing of hypotheses were but part of her job. But today she is considered as a “witness for nature”. The Christian allegory is so clear. She is a Saint. And by our understanding a Saint is definitely in heaven.
However she had trouble explaining to the US Congress especially the Senate on her scientific claims. Since the public wanted clear cut guidelines, the whole issue about pesticides became a black and white issue. It was either do away with pesticides or not and suffer the consequences. In fact, she wasn’t for that but careful application of pesticides to prevent insect resistance.
Carson died of cancer (presumably due to her work on toxicology) and that ensured that she became environmentalism’s first saint.
Scientists have to deal with uncertainties in their work. In reality this uncertainty is needed in motivating scientists to devise better ways, instruments and methods to do experiments to verify their hypotheses. Indeed an unwillingness to deal with uncertainties is the real barrier to progress. The products of scientific research is technology which we use in our daily lives. In using technology we expect that we certainly get a cell site signal when we want to send SMS. We expect to get a cable or broadcast signal when we turn on the TV to watch a show. We expect PAGASA to tell us when and where the next typhoon will hit.If we are certain, then we are content.
But with environmental catastrophe in the public awareness, scientists are often asked to give statements to the media and the media need certainty. Even in what wags say “scientifically backward” Philippines, we observe this. For instance I have been interviewed about biodiversity by popular media practitioners. Biodiversity is something that interests many Filipinos of all ages and social classes but even if one species does go extinct, this is unlikely to kill them immediately. So the warnings we give (despite the scientific uncertainty) are listened to but the solutions we dispense kind of give a sense of feel good hope. This is a good thing for the time being.
However contrast this with what happened to the ill fated Princess of the Stars last year. It is claimed that the captain of the ill fated ship depended on advisories issued by the Coast Guard which got them from PAGASA. Unbeknownst to the captain, he sailed his ship right into the eyewall of Typhoon Frank. The consequences as we know are tragic. The Philippine Congress had PAGASA and the PCG account for the “shortcomings” and the ship owners lodged a lawsuit against PAGASA. Too bad the media and the legal eagles in the blogosphere did not hoot much a peep on the significance of the suit. This was probably the first suit in the Philippines against a science agency and its scientists. The court dismissed the suit saying that no one can really control and predict the weather with that certainty.
But this exposed the real shortcomings of our weather bureau. It sorely needs more equipment, weather stations, and meteorologists. The Arroyo administration has recognized the need for equipment upgrades and the need for those Doppler radars (those who watch the Weather Channel know how Doppler radar plots look like). Around 10 radars have been ordered and they cost a million USD each. PAGASA personnel have been sent to the USA for training. However only a trickle of meteorology students enrol at UP’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology each year. This drought of weathermen/women means that even with new equipment, we don’t have people that can use the radars and interpret the weather data. One of our major worries in the institute that this drought of students threatens the viability of the program and the weather service as a whole. DOST and PAGASA as well as foreign governments are providing scholarships for students to consider meteorology as a profession. There are few takers.
The public worldwide is not comfortable when scientists publicly express their uncertainties about their conclusions. I believe that the major reason why the global warming advocates and scientists needed an Al Gore is that he being a non-scientist may express this uncertainty without much ridicule (after all he is a layman). But in “Inconvenient Truth” this uncertainty was downplayed for the media hype purposes. The public hasn’t really got the idea that uncertain science doesn’t mean unsound science. But the demands for quick scientific solutions for real life problems means the public misconceptions are reinforced.
The Philippines faces an election year and in every election year, the environment becomes an election issue (aside from the usual corruption issue). Whether it is a Father Panlilio, Chiz Escudero, Manny Villar, Mar Roxas etc as candidates for president, expect that they will have a stand on environmental issues. They will depend on scientific advisors. Can the advisors advice them on how certain science is? Science will be playing a more important role in future elections as the Filipino public increasingly perceives a coming environmental catastrophe.
Society needs science but we are on the way to understand it and how it works. However we need to reexamine science in basic education and on to graduate school. The other choice is we consult with quacks, crocks and other charlatans who dispense information with nary a logical underpinning that sounds certain but whose uncertainty cannot be challenged.
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Authoritative window, nice piece, in toto.
What does it mean, this :
scholarships still available because there are more scholarships available than applicants …
Man is the only specie in this universe that destroys its home. We
polute the Earth. We degrade and deforest it. We do it for greed.
Technolology is not the only answer to our problems. It is just one of the answers. Technology without a social conscience will bring us
to degradation. People in the Philippines are more interested in
surviving. In getting money for the next meal. Only a few are interested in Science and Technology. We are a century behind in
Science and Technology; compared to the most technologically advanced
country like the U.S. One cause of this is:our preoccupation to politics, and of gaining political power. Politics give us a lot of bonanzas, especially for election winners and their “asungots”. Who cares about Technology when you can be voted to office, by hook or by crook. And can enrich yourself in office.
Unfortunately we need science and technology to survive global climate change. Even the political crooks know this!
just pray one father, 10 hail mary’s – global warming will go away, peks man :)
“in toto”! Primer’s discovered a new phrase. Good work, Primer, in toto.
It is also where Dorothy found one of the Wizard’s emeralds.
If I were Mayor of a coastal city, I would already know how high above, or below, high-high tide my city would be if the water were 6 inches higher than now, 12 inches, 3 feet, and 12 feet. My building codes would ban new construction in high-threat areas, and require warnings for buildings in medium threat areas. I would be mulling over the practicality of dikes versus moving the whole frigging town to neighboring hills at first sign of real disaster.
I think developmental science is for the rich countries; applied survival science is for the Philippines. No uncertainty about it.
Like, where will the food come from when all of today’s low-lying rice fields are ruined by salt water? Agronomy anyone? And where the water comes from when drought is common where rain is now abundant (uhhh, like where to build the dams). Hydro-engineering anyone? How will ocean life change; better or worse? Oceanography anyone? Meteorology? Botany? Mineralogy?
Joe
Joe:
That’s the thing, most pinoy folks want it handed on a silver platter.
All they do is whine, but when asked to do the hard work of thinking, clam up and come up with BS.
Speaking of development planning, let’s talk urban development – specifically road construction.
In the US, the freeway planners will project from 50 to 100 years. Thus, one sees three/four lane freeways sprout up where one can’t even see any communities. The presumption is that the communities will sprout near thee freeways. Since there are no residential or commercial developments yet, the property acquisition for road-right-of-way is significantly lower.
In the Philippines, planning for a freeway takes place when a two lane road has become a five lane road to include the inner and outer road shoulders and the sidewalk! And since road widening is involved the costs for road of right away will be horrendous – and the allegations of a congressman/mayor/councilor/governor making a killing will fly left and right.
One thing I have learned from my dialogues with the various tollway authorities is that:
1) – The community must profit from the road development. Thus, the authorities sell LGU/Tollway bonds to people with properties along the road – the fund raised from bonds supports the road; and the community gets a good return from the road development. In the Philippines, it is considered evil to make a profit from the road development? It is one thing if I am in a position of authority, and I manipulate the bidding process so that the road construction is awarded to me or a dummy company fronted by a crony. It is another thing if I invest in tollway bonds.
However, it’s the Pinas – no such thing as LGU bonds –
who would trust a Philippine government agency to pay its obligations anyways :)
the LGU staff are too mediocre and incompetent to implement an LGU bond flotation scheme – not to mention the crooks that pervade the rank of LGU employees
the LGU constituents would rather discuss who is making more money rather than figuring out how they as individuals can generate more personal revenue while contributing to the community effort
BongV,
As usual, your comments cause my brain to think, a dangerous condition.
“most pinoy folks want it handed on a silver platter”
By most, I think of one standard deviation from the mean, or roughly 68 percent, or somesuch. Generalities are helpful as long as it can be pointed out that there are exceptions, and the hope probably rests with them as opposed the standard deviants.
I also wonder how that came to pass. Did a feudal upbringing cause people to simply do their work and accept whatever came their way? No way to influence the landholder, so why try? That is consistent with the views I’ve read here that suggest people think Filipinos are good workers, but not executive types. I suppose I could throw in a “most” in there somewhere.
For myself, I suspect teaching, training and coaching could make a decent planner, thinker and manager out of most people. (68% of the 68%)
Joe
Joe:
A strategic solution is through education – a stop-gap measure could be through a sustained campaign that motivates people to aspire and provides a venue for realizing such aspirations – a blend/ mix of solutions.
has anyone here heard of magniwork. it’s supposedly a zero-point energy generator. interesting.
Pinas can buy more Doppler radar and other technology, but it will require raising VAT which is a NO-action on which Malacanang, Congress and the population are in total agreement. The sad thing is that Pinoys-in-Pinas do not comprehend that VAT is easier to accomplish than the alternative which is “… one Our Father and four Hail Mary’s” done as a group by at least 7 faithfuls in at least 700 churches for the next 700 Sundays.
Another alternative is for Pinas to make a case before the United Nations (or to Bill Gates) that disaster awaits the archipelago unless donations arrive.
Another alternative is for four or five middle-class find the economic/financial creativity to reach billionaire status in the next 10 years, and then for them to make charitable contributions to the motherland.
o nasaan na ba yung mga bright boys ng UP diliman?
mas kailangan yung doppler radar kesa sangtambak na thesis na wala namang bumabasa at wala namang pakinabang .
sa dinami dami ng naglilipanang PHD at Masters – ni wala bang makapagbuo ng doppler radar, locally?
BongV: Given the being-reported statistic that Pinas labor-cost is high, there is the possibility that a made-in-Philippines doppler radar will cost 4.27 times “market-price” (or even higher).
Just think about it — even with the shortcut “Puwede na” mentality, the machines for Pinas elections automation will NOT be made-by-Pinoys-in-Pinas.
UP:
the labor cost is “high” compared to?
by US standards, GRP labor cost is low .
the $8/day NCR minimum wage for non-agricultural workers is still lower compared to the US $7.95/hour minimum wage
- note that an entry-level nurse gets $25/hour.
It’s a mystery, isn’t it?
It makes economic sense and nothing will please ‘dem scumbag money-hungry capitalists than to have work sent to and done by the lowest-cost workers, so manufacturing and call-center-work should be booming in Pinas if Pinas labor cost is low, but how come not?
where is the science of cost-accounting when one needs one?
i don’t get the marine warning system. aren’t all ships grounded in a typhoon?
The science of finance speaks about GMA:
http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20090723-216903/Moodys-upgrades-RP-rating-after-12-years
Japan, EU countries, Canada and Australia are providing meteorology scholarships. True that the local job market is small, but PAGASA does provide some job security and given the new SSL scheme, the pay would now be comparable to equivalent positions in the private sector.
The problem is that once the tropical meteorologist gets honed in forecasting typhoons, he/she is likely to be offered a whopping salary by shipping firms. I’ve heard that a forecast comes at a price of 1000 USD! If the forecaster gets only half of that and there is a need for daily forecasts, just do the arithmetic!
In the age of climate change, the meteorologist is king! If I didn’t get a 3.0 in my calculus courses, I would have opted for meteorology!